Donald Trump won Iowa in both 2016 over Hillary Clinton and 2020 over Joe Biden. Here’s what the latest polling says and when you can expect results.
IOWA, USA — Election Day is finally here, meaning Iowans will get the chance to make their voices heard in the 2024 presidential race.
The election is a long-awaited finale to a tense and at times chaotic campaign cycle marked by a major change on the Democratic ticket, two assassination attempts and multiple criminal cases involving former President Donald Trump.
Trump won Iowa in both 2016 and 2020.
However, the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll of the election cycle shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump, 47% to 44%, just days before Election Day.
It’s the first time Harris has led in the poll. In September, the previous Iowa Poll showed Trump leading Harris by just 4% among likely Iowa voters. In contrast, President Joe Biden lagged 18 points behind Trump while he was still in the race.
The most recent poll, which surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters, was conducted by Selzer & Co. From Oct. 28-31. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
According to the poll, Harris is highly favored by women in Iowa, particularly older women and those who are registered as independents.
That’s not to discount the many Iowans who remain loyal to Trump. The former president won 98 of Iowa’s 99 counties during the 2024 Iowa Caucus, easily defeating his GOP challengers like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
Conservatives across the state have resonated with Trump’s economic messaging and focus on creating American jobs, which may ring closer to home amid mass layoffs at companies like Tyson and John Deere.
The Iowa Poll also indicates Trump has managed to hold on to his base voters in Iowa: Evangelicals, rural Iowans and men.
In addition, the most recent Iowa Poll notes that many Trump supporters in Iowa (49%) cite their concerns over inflation and the economy as their deciding factor in voting this year. 25% of likely Trump voters in Iowa said immigration was the deciding issue.
Not since 2012 has a Democratic presidential nominee in Iowa won any counties except for Black Hawk, Johnson, Linn, Polk, Scott and Story. Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 both won those exact same counties, some of Iowa’s most populous.
Local 5 will have live election results from the presidential race, all four of Iowa’s Congressional races, the Iowa Legislature and the balance of power in the U.S. House and Senate
Trump’s time on the campaign trail has been marked by his trademark volatility. At his events, Trump frequently lobs personal attacks at Harris and continues to spread falsehoods about the 2020 election.
Trump’s legal troubles also loom over his campaign. In May, Trump became the first former president to become a convicted felon after he was found guilty of falsifying business records when paying off porn star Stormy Daniels. Three other cases against the former president remain pending.
None of these factors are likely to sway Trump’s diehard supporters. Still, his abrasive behavior could be a turnoff for independent voters and moderate Republicans.
Harris has proved to be a formidable adversary to Trump following the news that President Joe Biden would not seek reelection. Throughout her brief campaign, Harris touted her past as a prosecutor, saying she has always worked “for the people.”
51% of likely Harris voters in Iowa say they have been thinking most about the future of democracy when making their choice for president, according to the most recent Iowa Poll.
Harris has made reproductive rights a cornerstone of her campaign. As president, Harris says she would push Congress to pass a bill codifying Roe v. Wade, which she would then sign into law.
The issue could be a winning one for Harris: Polling from September shows 64% of Iowans believe abortion should be legal in most or all cases. Moreover, the most recent Iowa Poll said 22% of likely Harris supporters in Iowa cite abortion as their top reason for voting for Harris this election.
However, Harris has been criticized for her perceived inaction as vice president, especially her handling of the U.S.-Mexico border. Her opponents, including Trump, have claimed a Harris presidency would mimic that of Biden’s.
Pro-Palestinian delegates at the 2024 Democratic National Convention were also not given a chance to address the crowd, putting more pressure on Harris to solidify her position on the U.S. alliance with Israel.
If elected, Harris would not only be the first female president, but also the first Black and South Asian woman to hold the title.
Two other notable candidates for president appear on Iowans’ ballots this year. One is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, but remains on the Iowa ballot none the less.
Chase Oliver is running for president as a Libertarian. Oliver gained national attention during the 2022 election in Georgia. Oliver earned 80,000 votes, forcing a runoff between Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker.
As president, Oliver would work to reduce government interference in Americans’ everyday lives. Oliver’s campaign promises include ending the Department of Education, overhauling the criminal justice system and preserving gun rights and abortion access.
Polls in Iowa will close at 8 p.m. on Election Day, Nov. 5.
Election results will likely roll in throughout the evening. Back in 2020, the first votes were reported around 9:11 p.m., according to the Associated Press. By 11 p.m., about 82% of total votes cast were reported.
The Associated Press contributed to this report
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