Former President Donald Trump is expected to win in Iowa, according to projections from NBC News and CNN.
Iowa, traditionally leaning Republican in recent presidential elections, has exhibited unexpected trends in the 2024 cycle. A recent poll conducted by Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register showed Harris leading former Trump by 3 points. Trump won the state in 2020 by 8 points.
Iowa has long played a critical role in shaping presidential elections, and 2024 is no exception. Known for its early caucuses that often set the tone for the primary season, Iowa also holds strategic importance in the general election, especially in closely contested races. In the last two elections, the state has given Trump six electoral votes.
Selzer’s poll was considered a shock given that Trump had been leading the state for the entirety of the presidential campaign. However, Harris’ lead is within the poll’s 3-point margin of error, indicating the race is tight.
One of the more surprising trends in the polling data is the shifting support among key demographic groups. Independent voters, a significant bloc in Iowa, are leaning more toward Harris than in past elections. Particularly, women over the age of 65 have shown increased support for Harris, a crucial development for Democrats hoping to make gains in traditionally Republican-leaning areas. Additionally, the poll indicates a split among rural and urban voters, with Trump maintaining strong support in rural areas while Harris performs better in cities and suburbs.
Nationally, the presidential race remains highly competitive. Election forecaster Nate Silver described the contest as a “pure toss-up,” making every state pivotal to each candidate.
Kevin Dietsch
Iowa’s voting history in presidential elections has seen significant shifts over the past few decades. The state voted for President George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004 but flipped to support President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Obama’s strong appeal, particularly among young voters and urban communities in Iowa, helped him secure substantial victories, with a winning margin of nearly 10 percentage points in 2008.
However, in 2016, the state swung decisively to Donald Trump, who carried Iowa by nearly 10 percentage points. Trump’s message resonated with the state’s large rural and working-class populations, who were drawn to his promises of economic revitalization and trade policies aimed at benefiting American farmers. He maintained that support in 2020, winning the state by an 8-point margin over President Joe Biden.
The economy and inflation are what drove Trump’s voters to cast their ballot for him, according to Selzer’s poll. Economic issues were closely followed by immigration. The top issue for Harris voters is the “future of democracy” followed by abortion.
Independent voters have always played a crucial role in Iowa elections, often swinging outcomes in tight races. With both major political parties focusing on outreach efforts in the state, independents are being courted aggressively. Harris’ campaign has emphasized reproductive rights, climate change, and healthcare access, hoping to mobilize younger and more progressive voters. In contrast, Trump’s campaign has doubled down on promises of economic prosperity and border security, seeking to energize his rural base.
