“It’s nice,” President-elect Donald Trump said in July from the campaign trail, “to get along with someone who has a lot of nuclear weapons.”
He was talking about North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, who has ruled that country for more than a decade through a policy of isolation, indoctrination and repression that includes, the U.N. says, the mass starvation of his own people.
“He’d like to see me back, too,” Trump said of Kim. “I think he misses me, if you want to know the truth.”
Young males − the so-called bro vote − helped propel Donald Trump to the presidency, pollsters and political scientists say, partly because of their concerns over immigration, economic opportunities, multiculturalism and perceived assaults on traditional family values and masculinity.
But Trump has “bros” overseas, too − older ones who run countries and who may be expecting him, for a second time, foreign affairs analysts say, to reorient U.S. foreign policy away from global alliances and toward their politically populist, in some cases authoritarian, priorities.
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“The word I would use to describe what we should expect from Trump 2.0 is ‘transactional,’ said Charles Kupchan, a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University.
“Trump is going to attempt to bring an end to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and that will require difficult conversations with democratic and non-democratic leaders alike.”
In fact, during his first term, Trump used personal chemistry and flattery to pursue his America-first agenda. In some cases, he was criticized for heaping praise on autocrats and dictators.
There was Kim, of whom Trump once boasted he had “fallen in love.” However, there were others.
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He called Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose political opponents routinely die in murky circumstances, a “genius.” He described Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who the CIA concluded ordered the assassination of U.S.-resident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, as a “great guy.” Trump characterized Hungary’s fiery, right-wing strongman leader Viktor Orban as “one of the most respected men.”
When it comes to Trump, it’s important to distinguish between his policy rhetoric and action, said Kupchan. Still, here’s leaders to watch for signs of new, or rekindled, Trump bromances, how likely they are, and what’s at stake.
Kim Jong Un’s isolated North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the National Defense University in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Oct. 7, 2024.
Bromance potential: Medium-to-low.What the U.S. wants: Denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea. Military experts believe Pyongyang’s ballistic missiles can likely reach the U.S. mainland. Trump priors: The president-elect went from threatening Kim with “fire and fury” over North Korea’s long-range missile and nuclear program to taking part in lavish summits and claiming Kim as his pen pal. Kim wanted sanctions relief in return for denuclearization. The summits ended in stalemate.
Edward Howell, a North Korea expert at the University of Oxford, said a new round of Trump-Kim meetings is possible but that North Korea is not the same country it was during Trump’s first term.
“Its nuclear and missile capabilities have become more developed” and Kim is not even pretending to want to engage in talks with the U.S. and South Korea, he said.
‘Make Argentina Great Again’ with Javier Milei
Argentine President Javier Milei gestures onstage during a rally in Buenos Aires, on Sept. 28, 2024.
Bromance potential: High-to-off-the-charts.What the U.S. wants: Traditional U.S. policy aimed at Argentina has focused on trade, human rights and combatting terrorism. In Argentine President Javier Milei, Trump may see an ally who is willing to dismantle whole government agencies and restrict or disband altogether policies aimed at climate change, LGBTIQ+ rights, migrants and worker protections. Argentina needs U.S. backing for a new financial aid package from the International Monetary Fund.Trump priors: Trump greeted Milei, an economic libertarian who’s deeply suspicious of government, with a massive, ecstatic bear hug when they met backstage at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, D.C., in February. In a nod to Trump, Milei even ran an election campaign called “Make Argentina Great Again.”
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He’s echoed Trump on immigration and social issues. What’s more, tech billionaire Elon Musk, just selected by Trump to co-lead the newly coined Department of Government Efficiency, has his own budding bromance with Milei over what they see as the urgent need to “free markets.” Milei is expected to travel to a CPAC event at Trump’s at Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, this week. Musk may also be in attendance.
“You are my favorite president,” Trump told Milei when they spoke by phone after Trump’s election victory, according to a Milei aide who posted about it on social media. Trump and Milei are aligned.
Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammed bin Salman and a consulate killing
Saudi Arabia Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in Brussels, Belgium, on Oct. 16, 2024.
Bromance potential: Medium.What the U.S. wants: The U.S. has long had an oil-for-security relationship with Saudi Arabia. The logic of this informal agreement has weakened over time as the U.S. has become less reliant on foreign energy supplies. The Biden administration has sought to sign a new, formal defense pact with Saudi Arabia. That deal, which has yet to happen, is viewed as part of a larger Middle East puzzle aimed at soothing a range of volatile regional issues.
The basis of the plan is that in return for U.S. security guarantees and support for a civilian nuclear program, Saudi Arabia would “normalize” its relations with Israel, potentially leading to progress on a future Palestinian state.
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Trump priors: Trump and Saudi Arabia’s de factor ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, or MBS as he is widely known, enjoyed warm relations during Trump’s first term. Trump’s first trip as U.S. president in 2017 was to the oil-rich kingdom. It was a lavish spectacle with sword dances, Trump’s image was projected across the Saudi capital, Riyadh. A multi-billion arms deal was signed.
In 2018, when Saudi dissident and journalist Khashoggi was ambushed, murdered and dismembered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, Trump, some critics said, effectively looked the other way. But MBS be more wary of Trump this time. Not least because Trump has signaled he may be willing to give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wide latitude for its offensives against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel. “Do what you have to do,” Trump reportedly told Netanyahu in one call in October.
MBS has accused Israel of committing “collective genocide” in Gaza. Still, Ali al-Ahmed, a U.S.-based Saudi scholar and dissident, said that Trump and MBS enjoy strong personal chemistry, both like “huge” deals and they may yet find a way to work out their differences. “Plus, Saudis love a Republican president,” he said.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin, a disinformation and misinformation love story
Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin, in Moscow, on Nov. 6, 2024.
Bromance potential: It’s complicated.
What the U.S. wants: First and foremost, Trump wants to bring both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the negotiating table with a view to ending Russia’s nearly three-year-old invasion of Ukraine. Trump says he can do this “in a day.” He hasn’t said how. Ukraine and much of the international community are skeptical. Not only at Trump’s assertion but at the idea that Putin can be trusted with, well, anything.
Over the last two decades, Putin has consolidated his grip on power by transforming Russia’s courts, media and other institutions to serve the whims of one person: himself. He has spent lavishly on the military, banned, jailed or had murdered opposition politicians and journalists and cultivated support from right-wing, nationalist groups. He changed Russia’s constitution so he can stay in power until 2036, perhaps even longer.
Putin has seen five U.S. presidents come − Trump 2.0 will be his sixth − and four − Biden will be his fifth − go. During this time, there has been on and off U.S.-Russia cooperation on trade, nuclear and ballistic missile treaties, fighting terrorism and more. There has also been sharp divergence – on human rights, on the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, on the rule of law, on Moscow’s apparent or at least tacit support for cyber-hackers, U.S. election meddling and on what countries such as Ukraine and Georgia, formed in the wake of the Soviet Union’s break-up in 1991, should be allowed to do in terms of carving out their own cultural and ideological destinies.
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Trump priors: How long have you got? The real story of Trump and Putin’s relationship, such as it is, is not clear. Both men say they first met face-to-face on the sidelines of a 2017 international summit in Germany. But Trump has also gone on the record saying he met Putin during a 2013 visit to Moscow for the Miss Universe pageant.
Russian officials and members of first Trump’s campaign and administration met many times, sometimes apparently unofficially. President Joe Biden has, over the years, has called Putin a “killer” and has accused him of trying to swing multiple U.S. elections in Trump’s favor. Meanwhile, Trump’s comments on Putin often contain praise and admiration. And it’s the same for Putin, an ex-KGB officer who has long trafficked in misinformation, disinformation, propaganda and outright lies, on Trump.
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What does all this mean for the prospect of peace in Ukraine, and beyond that, what we can expect in terms of Trump-Putin geopolitical relations on social media, at summits, and elsewhere? Stay tuned.
Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban looks on during a press conference in Budapest, Hungary, on Nov. 8, 2024.
Bromance potential: High
What the U.S. wants: The Biden administration spent fours years chiding Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban for his government’s illiberal moves to engineer his country’s courts and media in his favor. Orban has faced consistent international criticism for his democratic standards, his position on minority rights and for allegations that’s he’s a Russia apologist in a part of the world where no one can afford to be. Orban has also tried to block or water down European Union financial aid and weapons for Ukraine. Hungary is a member of the EU. Orban is arguably Europe’s fiercest anti-immigration leader, a stance that may not offend Trump.
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Trump priors: Orban was one of the few EU leaders to enthusiastically endorse both of Trump’s presidential campaigns. Ahead of the vote, he said he’d celebrate Trump’s victory with “bottles of champagne.” Orban was visiting the former Soviet republic Kyrgyzstan when news of Trump’s win arrived. So he pivoted, according to local news reports, to vodka, which he said he was “tapping” into “happily” in Trump’s honor. For his part, Trump has lauded Orban as the kind of leader the world needs more of: “fantastic,” “respected,” strong. Trump’s views on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mirror Orban’s. In some ways, they are brothers from another mother.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, rising global player
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (not pictured), in New Delhi, on Oct. 25, 2024.
Bromance potential: “Howdy Modi.”
What the U.S. wants: India is the world’s largest democracy and the world’s most populous country. Over the last several decadesm U.S.-India cooperation has deepened on defense, trade and technology. There is a prevalent view among foreign affairs experts and Washington officials that India is a good regional partner for the U.S. as it seeks to contain China’s rising economic and military power. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not diplomatically baggage-free. Modi’s critics have accused his government of human rights abuses and pursuing a form of Hindu nationalism that has grossly penalized India’s minority groups, its Muslims especially. In 2005, when he was chief minister of Gujarat, a state in western India, Modi was denied a visa to the U.S. “for violations of religious freedom.”
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Trump priors: None of the above has appeared to matter to Trump. In 2019, he stood on stage at Houston, Texas’s NRG Stadium for a “Howdy, Modi” rally for tens of thousands of Indian-Americans. Trump introduced Modi as “my friend, a friend of India” and as someone who “has left a deep and lasting impact everywhere.” When Trump visited India a year later, Modi threw him an event in the world’s largest cricket stadium.
In his congratulatory post to Trump on X, Modi shared photos of the two leaders hugging, smiling and holding hands. “I know today a lot of countries are nervous about the U.S., let’s be honest about that,” India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said a few days later. India was “not one of them,” he added.
The Trump-Modi namastes cut both ways.
Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu; ‘history’s greatest comeback’
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony in Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, on Oct. 31, 2024.
Bromance potential: High. See Trump Heights.
What does the U.S. want: For the remaining hostages taken by Iran-backed Hamas during its Oct. 7 attack on Israel to be returned and for wars in Gaza and Lebanon that came after that episode to be wound down.
The U.S. has threatened to sanction Israel, in the form of withholding weapons and military supplies, if it does not do more to alleviate the suffering of around 1.9 million Palestinians, some 90% of Gaza’s population, who have been displaced, according to the United Nations, by Israel’s assault on Gaza. More than 43,000 Palestinians, the Hamas-run local authorities say, have been killed. Israel is battling accusations it has committed war crimes in Gaza.
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Trump priors: Every American president in modern times, citing shared history and values and an unshakeable security commitment, has been staunchly pro-Israel. Trump, in his first term, perhaps more than most. Trump dismantled many widely held assumptions of the U.S. foreign policy establishment when it comes to Israel.
He relocated the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the holy city that Palestinians claim as part of their future capital. He withdrew the U.S. from a nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. While most western powers view Iran’s nuclear activities as a considerable threat, for Israel, its proximity to the Islamic Republic and Tehran’s periodic vows to “annihilate” the Jewish state mean that Iran is a daily existential worry.
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Israel was steadfastly opposed to the deal.
Trump also overlooked Jewish settlement expansion on land claimed by Palestinians and announced that the U.S. would be shifting its position, in place since 1978, on Israeli settlements in the West Bank, a Palestinian territory, no longer viewing them as inconsistent with international law.
Trump also closed the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s mission in Washington, D.C. – its de facto embassy – and cut off U.S. funding to organizations that work on Palestinian issues. He brokered an economic normalization pact between Israel and some Arab nations − the Abraham Accords − that completely sidelined Palestinians.
Netanyahu described Trump’s fresh election victory as history’s greatest comeback.” After speaking to Trump, he said, “We see eye to eye on the Iranian threat in all its components, and the danger posed by it. We also see the great opportunities before Israel, in the field of peace and its expansion, and in other fields.”
Perhaps telling about how Trump will approach Netanyahu, and Israel more broadly: He selected two diplomatic envoys to Israel and the Middle East who have virtually no policy experience in the region. Trump tapped Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, be the next U.S. ambassador to Israel. Huckabee has previously said “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian.” Trump named Steven Witkoff as his incoming administration’s Middle East envoy. Witkoff is a real-estate developer and occasional Trump golf partner.
‘Don’t ask me. Ask’ China’s Xi Jinping
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives for a signing ceremony with Italian President Sergio Mattarella (not pictured) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Nov. 8, 2024.
Bromance potential: Who started COVID?
What the U.S. wants: The U.S. and China have a complex bilateral relationship covering trade, climate change and the issue of Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing views as part of its territory and has vowed to unite − politically − with the Chinese mainland. The U.S. has pledged to come to Taiwan’s aid militarily if China’s vow takes the form of a military invasion. Trump, when it comes to China, appears mostly interested in tariffs. “I would say: if you go into Taiwan, I’m sorry to do this, I’m going to tax you at 150% to 200%,” Trump said on the campaign trail.
Trump priors: Trump has said he gets on well with China’s leader Xi Jinping. “I had a very strong relationship with him,” he said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board in October. “He was actually a really good, I don’t want to say friend − I don’t want to act foolish, ‘he was my friend’ − but I got along with him great.”
Trump added that Xi was a “very fierce person.” However, Trump during the coronavirus pandemic routinely sought to blame China for the COVID pandemic and called on Beijing to be punished for its handling of the disease.
“Don’t ask me. Ask China,” Trump said in one testy exchange with a reporter who had asked him during a press conference asked why he always said the U.S. was doing better than any other country on COVID testing.
During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on China ranging from 10% to 25% on various Chinese goods. He cited as the reason for doing this issues China’s alleged intellectual property theft and trade imbalances. He’s proposed new tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially reaching 60% on all goods entering the U.S. from China.
“No one knows what the future holds for U.S.-China ties, maybe not even Donald Trump himself. The president-elect’s views on China are myriad and contradictory,” wrote Evan Medeiros, who served on the U.S. National Security Council from 2009-2015 and is an adviser with The Asia Group consultancy, in a recent commentary.
“There is the Xi Jinping-loving Trump who wants to do big deals with strong leaders. And there is Trump the strategic competitor who felt cheated by China on Covid and the bilateral trade deal. He knows that being tough on China is reliably great politics. Will Trump the dealmaker or Trump the competitor step forward? Likely both.”
Xi emphasized said in his post-election message to Trump that that China and the U.S. must “get along.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Donald Trump and the art of world leader bromances
