Examining the American electorate is not a task for simpletons.
From what is known so far, the 2024 election didn’t lend itself to empty generalizations. Elections seldom do.
But while politicians work to parse and dissect what the American electorate tried to tell them on Election Day, Republicans need to ponder this truth. It is their turn to govern, and they soon will be judged by how well they do.
The beauty of democracy is that it constantly refreshes and renews itself through elections. Republicans have a rare opportunity. Beginning Jan. 20, they will control the White House, the House and the Senate. Democrats will retain the filibuster in the Senate, but little more.
With power comes responsibility. An ideological overreach would backfire, as it has before. Democrats learned this in 2010 when they suffered huge losses in the midterm elections. Likewise, the last time Republicans were in this position, they lost the House in the 2018 midterm elections. Midterm losses by the party in power are common, but not inevitable. Effective leadership with bipartisan input is key.
Donald Trump clearly achieved a sweeping victory, capturing the elusive trifecta of Republican control of the White House, Senate and House. However, voters, as is often the case, showed an independent streak. For instance, the people of Arizona chose Trump, a Republican and, at least according to trends as late vote counting continues, Democrat Ruben Gallego as their senator. Nevadans chose Trump and Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen for another term.
Some pundits believe Trump won through force of personality, entertainment and spectacle alone, in an effort to bamboozle. That’s a foolhardy and false characterization. Voters clearly were upset with the ideological direction of the nation. By now, the electorate is well acquainted with Trump and his way of operating.
Others would belittle voters as easily deceived, fooled by false rhetoric and unaware of larger issues. This may describe some, but it doesn’t capture the nuances. Fewer women voted for Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris than did for President Joe Biden in 2020. Latino men went for Hillary Clinton by a margin of 31 points in 2016, but they voted for Trump by a margin of 10 points this time around. What made them change?
To buy into the rationale that voters are incompetent is to display a cynical distrust of democracy as a form of governance. We don’t accept that, nor does history reflect that.
However, democracy and public sentiments are fluid, not static.
As with many presidential elections, voters this time passed judgment on the administration that has been in power over the past four years. In this case, a small majority clearly would rather use their vote to reject the Biden administration than to reject the antics of Trump, and Harris could not escape her association with Biden.
Exit polls showed Republican voters believed the economy was bad. NBC News found 70% of them believe it was either poor or not so good. Some may note that this is not supported by standard measurements, and that is true.
The Commerce Department issued a report a week before Election Day showing the economy excelling in nearly all categories, with a 2.8% growth in GDP during the third quarter and with consumer spending up 3.7%. Unemployment remained low and inflation was in the 2% range the Federal Reserve had targeted.
And yet, many of those voters were undoubtedly responding to 21% inflation over a five-year period. The MIT Sloan School of Management produced a study that found, mathematically, “that the overwhelming driver of that burst of inflation in 2022 was federal spending,” its website said.
Stimulus funding contributed to that, as did the Inflation Reduction Act. Tuition loan forgiveness, curtailed by court decisions, has been projected to add to federal spending, as well.
It’s not irrational to oppose such measures under the broader category of bad economic decisions.
The lesson is to get spending under control in meaningful ways.
Elections are snapshots in time. They illuminate trends and feelings as they exist near Election Day. When it is over, the winners exult and the losers retreat into a period of reflection and change.
Two years from now, voters will pass judgment again, but this time on Trump’s second administration and the performance of Republican rule in Congress.
Sic transit gloria mundi. That translates roughly into “all glory is fleeting.” Nothing lasts forever. But good governance is a virtue that speaks much louder than winning an election.
