The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 12 of the NFL season.
Sunday
RAIDERS (+6) over Broncos
Las Vegas makes up creative ways to lose. They are currently leading the NFL turnovers, but those are mostly just flukey plays you don’t necessarily expect to happen at any specific rate. Last year, Josh Allen had the second-most interceptions in the NFL, but he’s near the bottom of the league this year. Brock Bowers and the Raiders keep this one close and maybe even provide an upset.
Buccaneers (-5.5) over GIANTS
Mike Evans returns at a terrible time for Big Blue. The star receiver is a solid deep threat to open up rushing lanes from running back Bucky Irving, which should already be wide open. Big Blue is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, the most in the NFL by far this year. Can’t blame Daniel Jones for that! Tampa Bay rolls in a week when favorites are all over three points in the 1 p.m. window.
Lions (-7.5) over COLTS
The Lions are hellbent on running up the score on any and every opponent they play. In steps Anthony Richardson, who is probably being overrated after finally looking like an NFL quarterback against the lowly Jets. The Lions allow just 4.2 points per game in the fourth quarter, the third-lowest number in the NFL, despite having the highest margin of victory in the NFL. Detroit doesn’t let up, even with a big lead.
Titans (+8) over TEXANS
Can Will Levis stop with the nonsense turnovers and put his head down and grind away? That’s what is stopping the Titans from being an average team. Instead, they’re a 2-8 Dumpster fire because of his 11 turnovers in seven games. Can’t help stupid. Nevertheless, turnovers are generally considered flukey plays, and Tennessee’s top-ranked run defense (4.1 YPC allowed) should do enough to stop the Houston offense and keep this one close.
Patriots (+7.5) over DOLPHINS
Some bad luck stopped the Patriots from nearly winning last week against the Rams. Now they’re still big underdogs against the Dolphins, who have Tyreek Hill nursing a sore wrist. Miami will look to run wild, but New England’s run defense isn’t bad enough to lose big on Sunday.
Cowboys (+10) over COMMANDERS
Favorites are running wild in the NFL right now. Double-digit favorites are 5-0 against the spread this year, but I don’t see a division game featuring a rookie quarterback to continue that undefeated stretch this year. Washington’s average margin of victory is 5.9, and its defense is nowhere near that of Houston’s defense, which stymied Dallas’ offense.
Vikings (-3.5) over BEARS
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast. He is 7-1 against rookie signal-callers and his unit has confused some the league’s best and brightest. We could see a “seeing ghosts” situation. Minnesota blitzes 39.3 percent and are third in QB hits (77). Williams is going to be under siege.
Chiefs (-11) vs. PANTHERS
The Panthers are the only run defense worse than the Giants in YPC allowed — though DVOA says Carolina is even worse, 32nd. Road map for a cover should be jumping out to an early lead and running it right at the Carolina defense. Bryce Young against the Chiefs defense is a brutal matchup — coordinator Steve Spagnuolo dominates younger quarterbacks, as he is 12-2 against rookies. Young isn’t a rookie, but he’s just as lost as one. Chiefs win big on the heels of a disappointing loss to Buffalo.
SEAHAWKS (-1) over Cardinals
Arizona has zero pass rush, ranked 31st in pass rush win rate, according to ESPN, so Geno Smith will have a chance to sit back and slice up the Cardinals’ beat-up secondary with returning DK Metcalf. I think the Cardinals are growing a solid young team, but Seattle’s rankings in DVOA should grow substantially with the return of some star players post-bye week.
49ers (+5.5) over PACKERS
Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa won’t play for the 49ers, and the line moved from 2 to 5.5. A 3.5-point move is a bit dramatic for me. Brandon Allen, who hasn’t really played since 2022, should still be good enough to keep this one close. Though banged up, San Francisco has a top-10 unit in everything, according to DVOA, so I’m happy to take the points and hope Kyle Shanahan serviceably coaches Allen up.
Eagles (-3) over RAMS
Philadelphia has the best secondary in the NFL, as rated by Pro Football Focus. That will make for tough sledding for aging receiver Cooper Kupp and even elite route runner Puka Nacua. Eagles also have tons of weapons on offense to beat down a below average defense in Los Angeles.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
Ravens (-3) vs. CHARGERS
There was much to be concerned about when we saw the Chargers fall apart at the seams against the Bengals. Should Baltimore get out to an early lead, they usually go into beatdown mode, which is another fair expectation here in prime time for Justin Herbert. Baltimore allows nearly no rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks (seventh best in the NFL), so don’t expect a heavy leg usage for the Chargers’ star signal-caller.
Last week: 2-11
Season: 69-85-1
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
