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According to a report issued by Realtor.com, counties switching their presidential votes from Biden to Trump in 2024 might see accelerated home price growth over the next four years.
The report, drawn from a study by the Journal of Real Estate Research, examined home prices and presidential election results across six elections from 2000 to 2020. Data showed that flipping to successful nonincumbent candidates outperformed other markets in home value appreciation.
Realtor identified 84 counties nationwide that shifted from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024, ranging from Florida’s Miami-Dade County to Montana’s Blaine County along the Canadian border.
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“These counties you identified could potentially experience superior housing performance following the election,” lead author Eren Cifci, assistant professor of finance at Austin Peay State University, told Realtor.com.
The pattern held regardless of political party. Areas supporting whichever nonincumbent candidate won the White House showed stronger price performance in subsequent years.
Federal spending often follows electoral shifts. “The rival party may recognize the critical role these counties played in securing their victory. Consequently, they might invest in these areas and work to improve living conditions to maintain voter support in future elections,” Cifci said.
Local engagement also drives growth. Communities voting for change often see increased civic participation, volunteerism and economic activity, which lift property values.
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The research found no notable price impacts in counties flipping to incumbent winners or losing candidates. Cifci emphasized the findings indicate potential trends rather than guarantees.
Current market conditions vary widely among the 84 counties. Georgia’s Baldwin County saw November median list prices rise 53% year-over-year to $356,250, while Florida’s Miami-Dade County dropped 9.2% to $634,000.
The study primarily focused on how home prices, rather than the reverse, influence elections. Counties with strong price appreciation supported incumbents, while underperforming markets favored challengers.
