Do the Colts rate a little home-field advantage against the Giants on Sunday?
Yes, the game’s at 1 p.m. at MetLife Stadium — home of the Giants. But it’s the Colts who have more wins at that facility this season. Indianapolis is 1-0 thanks to a 28-27 victory over the Jets on Nov. 17. QB Anthony Richardson’s 4-yard touchdown run with 46 seconds to go was the difference in a game his team trailed by eight points early in the fourth quarter.
The Giants? Their home record could win an award for being the biggest bagel in North Jersey. They are 0-8 at MetLife, with five of the defeats coming by double digits.
Issue No. 2 is injuries. The Giants list a lot of questionables at midweek, including Malik Nabers, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and a handful of offensive linemen. As a bettor, possibly the only thing better than going against Drew Lock is going against Drew Lock with a bad shoulder, which could be the case. (Richardson is questionable for the Colts with back and foot concerns, but Joe Flacco would be a suitable substitute).
Finally, we have to consider the mythical “tank” scenario. The Giants currently hold the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and at this point, the only worthwhile thing Brian Daboll can do for the franchise is to make sure it stays that way.
I’m always a little hesitant to discuss this notion because I’d never want to suggest a coach is trying to lose a game. Still, in 10 days, the entire Giants world will be focused on that draft choice. And everyone saw that the Raiders dropped from first to sixth with one measly win against the Jaguars.
The pick: Colts -7.5.
BUFFALO BILLS (-8.5) over New York Jets
The Bills no longer can win the AFC bye, but the No. 2 seed is important as well, as it’s the difference between a home game and a road game in the divisional round. They can clinch that spot Sunday if they beat the Jets at Orchard Park.
Though they have the motivation, it’s dicey to lay a big number in this spot when a victory by three or seven points would achieve the favorite’s goal.
The Bills failed to cover a 14-point spread in a 24-21 victory over the Patriots, but that might have been a sleepy spot after an eventful string of games that included a win over the Chiefs, the snow rout of the 49ers, a 44-42 loss at the Rams and 48-42 win at the Lions.
Only four of the Jets’ losses are by double digits, but this line has dipped well under the key number of 10. Figure the Bills take care of business the way the Chiefs and Ravens did on Christmas.
Saturday
Los Angeles Chargers (-4) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Chargers would clinch an AFC wild-card berth with a victory in Foxborough. Again, that bid could be secured with a last-second field goal, but the spread here isn’t quite as forbidding as the one in Bills-Jets. After getting pounded physically in a 40-17 loss to the Bucs, the Chargers came back four days later and took down the Broncos. That’s an impressive job by Jim Harbaugh, and I trust him to get the Bolts over the finish line here by margin.
Denver Broncos (+3.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Broncos have had a little extra time after their Thursday loss to the Chargers, and that should help at this time of year. Interestingly, their starting 22 doesn’t list a single injury. The Sean Payton/Bo Nix offense is on a heater, scoring 38, 29, 41, 31 and 27 points in going 4-1. Happy to take them and a few points against a Bengals defense that ranks 28th in points per game allowed at 26.2.
Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) over LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Rams are battling for the NFC West title. Arizona has lost four of its past five and was eliminated from the postseason with an overtime loss in Carolina last week. Still, the prime-time spotlight will be on the Cardinals for a rare occasion, and I don’t think there’s 6.5 points worth of difference between these two teams.
Sunday
Las Vegas Raiders (-1) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Raiders already can say goodbye to the No. 1 pick in 2025, so there’s not much downside to another win here. Figure with Aidan O’Connell, Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers all healthy, Las Vegas can generate more offense than the battered Saints can manage with Spencer Rattler and possibly without Alvin Kamara.
Tennessee Titans (+1) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
It’s a stretch even to call this an NFL game, but it’s on the card so we have to pick it. Since Mac Jones replaced the injured Trevor Lawrence, the Jags are 1-5, with the win coming 10-6 at Tennessee on Dec. 8. That gives the Titans a rapid revenge motive (lol, I know!). Also, Mason Rudolph has been an upgrade over Will Levis, and the Titans have averaged 28.5 points in his past two starts against the Bengals and Colts. Hey, it’s something.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-7) over Dallas Cowboys
Line has cratered a few points on Jalen Hurts’ injury status. The Eagles’ 36-33 loss in Landover ended their 10-game win streak and now Philly is still a win (or a Commanders loss later Sunday) away from the NFC East title and a guarantee of at least the NFC No. 2 seed. They crushed the Cowboys, 34-6, in Arlington in Cooper Rush’s first start in place of Dak Prescott. Dallas has averaged 27.4 ppg and gone 4-1 in its last five but Rush’s options dwindle with CeeDee Lamb shut down.
Carolina Panthers (+8) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Bucs are clinging to the lead in the NFC South. Two weeks ago, they hammered the Chargers physically and on the scoreboard, 40-17. Last week at Dallas, they made too many mistakes and lost, 26-24, in their fourth road game in five weeks. Even if the Bucs can rediscover that intensity, this spread’s a bit much to ask against a Panthers team that has covered six of their last seven spreads.
Miami Dolphins (-6.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
Unlike a few weeks ago at Lambeau, the Dolphins luck out with a wet forecast in the low 50s in Cleveland. Seems like a lot of points but the Browns’ last six losses have come by an average of 15.3 ppg.
Betting on the NFL?
Green Bay Packers (-1) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Packers are the juggernaut contender I don’t pick nearly enough. They’ve won 9 of 11, with the two losses coming to the Lions. Previous losses came against the Eagles in Week 1 in Brazil and 31-29 to the Vikings in Week 4 in Jordan Love’s first game back from injury. Great matchup but I see the Packers defense stopping Sam Darnold a little more than the Vikings quieting Love.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-4) over Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. got a win in his debut vs. the Giants, but the 34-7 final was aided by two pick-sixes. While they are fighting for first in the NFC South, this is a win-and-in for the Commanders and the former FedEx Field should be on fire for Jayden Daniels.
Monday
Detroit Lions (-3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The Lions had an 11-game winning streak snapped in a 48-42 loss to the Bills but responded with a 34-17 rout at Chicago. The battered 49ers seem to be a mere speed bump for Jared Goff, Amon Ra-St. Brown & Co. on the way to the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Best bets: Lions, Colts, Chargers
Lock of the week: Lions (Locks 8-8 in 2024)
Last week: 8-7-1 overall, 1-2 Best Bets
Wed./Thur.: Chiefs (W), Texans (L), Seahawks (L)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back 31 years. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.
