The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for the NFL’s Wild Card Round.
TEXANS (+3) over Chargers
On average, 1.5 upsets occur per Wild Card weekend, home underdogs are 16-14 straight up all time, and overall underdogs are 69-105.
Favorites have dominated the NFL in recent weeks, but I don’t see that stopping history from repeating in these playoffs.
Saturday’s first game should be a defensive struggle and a sack fest supreme as the Chargers and Justin Herbert match up with the Houston Texans’ vaunted defense.
Houston’s defensive line is ferocious, ranking first in pass rush win rate and second in run stop win rate.
That’s an incredible number for a great defense that is also rated No. 3 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
I’m not expecting either team to put up many points on Saturday.
The Chargers’ defense is also rated No. 9 in DVOA, so expect an oddball score; perhaps an 18-16 game where either team can win.
RAVENS (-9.5) over Steelers
It’s the rubber match of a three-game set when the Steelers head over to Baltimore for a divisional rivalry.
The Ravens are the league’s No. 1 rated team in DVOA, and if not for their recent history of coming up short in the playoffs, they would likely be Super Bowl favorites.
The reality is no one trusts them after losing to the Chiefs last year as moderate favorites, where they outgained Kansas City 5.9 to 4.4 yards per play.
Betting on the NFL?
You may forget that the Ravens mashed a red-hot Texans team in the divisional round of the playoffs 34-10.
The Steelers are playing their worst football of the season, losing four straight games.
The Steelers have the second-worst yards per pass attempt in the NFL during that stretch, behind only Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Bailey Zappe, and the Browns.
Yikes.
Last week: 4-10
Season: 113-131-3.
