Why Oscar’s Best Documentary Feature nominees are notoriously difficult to predict

Nominees for the 2025 Oscars will be announced on Jan. 23 — and one category that’s notoriously difficult to forecast is Best Documentary Feature. The Academy shortlist winnowed down the potential nominees to 15 films, but this year’s precursor awards have been all over the map. We’re also dealing with the Documentary Branch of the Academy — a group that has proven to be unpredictable.

In 2024, Gold Derby’s combined odds were able to forecast just two of the five nominees: The eventual winner, 20 Days in Mariupol, and Four Daughters. Scratched from the list were the Producers Guild of America’s top choice, American Symphony, along with Beyond Utopia, which had stacked PGA, Directors Guild of America, and BAFTA nominations, and the Emmy and National Board of Review winner, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. So what have we learned?

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Why we can’t count on the guilds

Last year, the PGA chose American Symphony as the top doc — a film about musician Jon Batiste attempting to compose a symphony as his wife, writer Suleika Jaouad, underwent cancer treatment. It wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars, but the Documentary Branch traditionally snubs celeb docs. The last major celebrity profile to be nominated (and win) at the Oscars was 2016 champ, Amy, the intimate portrait of the life and career of the late British singer Amy Winehouse. Other than last year, PGA has had a solid record — it picked the eventual Oscar winner in 2023 (Navalny), 2022 (Summer of Soul), and 2021 (My Octopus Teacher). But here’s the kicker — the only PGA nominee on this year’s Oscars shortlist is Porcelain War, which is currently ranked eighth in Gold Derby’s odds.`

The DGA seems more in tune with this year’s crop of contenders, nominating five docs shortlisted for the Oscars: Daughters, Hollywoodgate, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, and Sugarcane. Last year, the directors were right on the money when they chose 20 Days in Mariupol as their winner — but they disagreed all three years prior when they awarded Fire of Love, Attica, and The Truffle Hunters over the eventual Oscar champs.

It isn’t unheard of for a film to score an Oscar nod after failing to register at both the PGA and DGA awards, which is good news for the current Gold Derby frontrunner, No Other Land. Last year, both The Eternal Memory and To Kill a Tiger were Oscar-nominated after missing at both guilds. However, the last Oscar winner to miss both guilds was 20 Feet From Stardom in 2014.

If nothing else, the guilds warn we may be underestimating Porcelain War in this race — the only doc cited by both the PGA and DGA. The film is also timely — spotlighting three artists, Slava, Anya, and Andrey, as they find beauty amid destruction from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

What we can take from BAFTA

Since many Oscar voters intersect with BAFTA, the British Academy has become one of the most reliable Oscars precursors. BAFTA has correctly forecasted the last four Oscar champs: 20 Days in Mariupol, Navalny, Summer of Soul, and My Octopus Teacher. Finally, a bellwether worth taking seriously, right? Not when it comes to Oscar nominations. Last year, BAFTA’s other four nominees — American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, and Wham! were all left out at the Oscars.

This year’s BAFTA nominees are Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, and Will and Harper. With Super/Man already out of Oscar contention, that leaves four films ripe for Academy Award nominations. However, BAFTA has historically been more favorable to celebrity-focused docs than the Oscars, which leaves Will and Harper vulnerable. In recent years, the Brits have nominated films about Jon Batiste (American Symphony), Michael J. Fox (Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie), Wham! (Wham!), and David Bowie (Moonage Daydream) — all of which the Academy ignored. The Documentary Branch’s apparent disdain for celeb docs could spell trouble for Will and Harper, a roadtrip movie that follows Will Ferrell and his newly transitioned pal, Harper Steele, across the country.

How other documentary precursors weigh in:

IDA Awards: No Other Land, a film about the destruction of the occupied West Bank and an alliance which develops between a Palestinian activist and an Israeli journalist, won Best Feature and Best Director from the International Documentary Association. Other Oscar contenders nominated for Best Feature were Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Queendom, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, and The Remarkable Life of Ibelin. Last year, Bobi Wine: The People’s President won the IDA, forecasting the film’s eventual Oscar nomination despite being ranked seventh in the odds.

Cinema Eye Honors: No Other Land took the top prize with this group of filmmakers who honor excellence in nonfiction; the directing prize went to Dahomey helmer, Mati Diop. Other Oscar contenders in contention here were Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Daughters, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, and Sugarcane. Last year’s Best Feature champ, 32 Sounds, was not nominated at the Oscars.

National Board of Review: NBR chose Sugarcane, a film about abuse and missing children at an Indian residential school, as their favorite documentary. Three additional Oscar contenders were among their five honorable mentions: Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, and Will and Harper. Last year’s NBR winner, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, was not nominated at the Oscars.

Gotham Awards: No Other Land won Best Documentary Feature at the Gothams, in which four other Oscar contenders competed: Dahomey, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, and Union. Last year’s Gothams champ, Four Daughters, was nominated at the 2024 Oscars.

Critics Choice Documentary Awards: Super/Man swept these awards with six wins. However, Will and Harper did manage to tie the Christopher Reeve doc for Best Documentary Feature. Other Best Feature nominees in Oscar contention were Daughters, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, and Sugarcane. Last year’s winner, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, was not nominated at the Oscars.

Independent Spirt Awards: The Indie Spirits won’t announce their winners until Feb. 22, but among the nominees for Best Documentary are No Other Land and Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, a film about the Cold War episode that led American musicians Abbey Lincoln and Max Roach to crash the United Nations Security Council to protest the murder of Congolese leader Patrice Lumumba. Last year’s winner, Four Daughters, was nominated at the 2024 Oscars.

The scorecard:

So far this awards season, No Other Land has picked up the most wins, with three, while Sugarcane has earned the most nominations, with six. Below is the full breakdown by number of wins and nominations.

Best Feature wins: 
No Other Land (IDA, Cinema Eye, Gothams)
Sugarcane (National Board of Review)
Will and Harper (Critics Choice)

Best Feature nominations: 
Sugarcane (DGA, IDA, Cinema Eye, NBR, Gothams, Critics Choice)
No Other Land (BAFTA, IDA, Cinema Eye, Gothams, Indie Spirits)
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (DGA, IDA, Cinema Eye, Gothams, Indie Spirits)
Black Box Diaries (BAFTA, IDA, Cinema Eye, NBR)
Daughters (DGA, BAFTA, Cinema Eye, Critics Choice)
Dahomey (IDA, Cinema Eye, NBR, Gothams)
Will and Harper (BAFTA, NBR, Critics Choice)
Porcelain War (PGA, DGA)
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (IDA, Critics Choice)
Hollywoodgate (DGA)
Queendom (IDA)
Union (Gothams)

Predicting the nominees:

Historically, the Documentary Branch has kept its finger on the pulse of world politics and social justice. Most of this year’s Oscar contenders check that box — leading to one of the tightest races of 2025. Below are Gold Derby’s final predictions.

Projected nominees:

1. No Other Land
2. Sugarcane
3. Daughters
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
5. Dahomey

On the bubble:

6. Black Box Diaries
7. Will and Harper
8. Porcelain War
9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
10. The Bibi Files

Long shots:

11. Union
12. Frida
13. Hollywoodgate
14. Queendom
15. Eno

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