Ohio State is the most talented team in the nation. In the past month, it has been as impressive as any team has looked at any point this season. It is the heavy favorite to win the national championship, as it should be.
But the Buckeyes know how easy it is to fall from that perch.
When it won its most recent national title a decade ago, Ohio State and its third-string quarterback (Cardale Jones), entered as a six-point underdog to Heisman winner Marcus Mariota and Oregon, and left with a 22-point win.
Its other national championship win of the 21st century came as an 11-point underdog, which ended Miami’s 34-game winning streak. In between those titles, Heisman winner Troy Smith and the unbeaten Buckeyes were blown out by Florida.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | -8.5 (-115) | -400 | Over 45.5 (-110) |
| Notre Dame | +8.5 (-105) | +310 | Under 45.4 (-110) |
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction
If Ohio State prevails, it will be the first two-loss national champion in 17 years. At their best, the Buckeyes could embarrass Notre Dame. But it isn’t difficult to envision Ohio State failing to reach its potential, as it did during the regular season.
This is a team that is one month removed from scoring 10 points as a 21-point favorite, that needed late goal-line stands to beat Texas and Penn State, that faced a fourth-quarter deficit against Nebraska.
Ohio State is led by a coach (Ryan Day) with a losing record in his biggest games, whose only national championship game appearance ended with a 38-point loss.
The Buckeyes offensive coordinator (Chip Kelly) also made one national-title game appearance as a head coach, leading Oregon’s top offense to 19 points in a loss to Auburn in the 2011 title game. Quarterback Will Howard has five interceptions in the past five games.
Superstar wide receiver Jeremiah Smith was held to one catch for three yards in the semifinals. The ground game was limited to 3.4 yards per carry against the Longhorns.
The recent blueprint is a bonus. Notre Dame has the structure and discipline to go in blind, riding the nation’s No. 2 defense to 13 straight wins, while going 11-1-1 against the spread. In the playoff, the Irish have allowed an average of 17 points per game.
They have forced the most turnovers in the nation, ranking fourth in interceptions. In 2022-23, the gap between Ohio State and Notre Dame was even larger, yet the Irish held the Buckeyes to an average of 19 points in two meetings.
Unfortunately for the Irish, Ohio State’s defense is even stronger, even better at stopping the run and rushing the passer. Notre Dame’s inability to hit home runs — and injuries to its offensive line — gives the Buckeyes defense a significant edge in the matchup.
Still, the biggest mismatches of the college football national championship routinely produce surprises. Since the BCS was introduced in 1998, favorites of six points or more have lost more than they’ve won (6-8), covering four of 14 times.
Betting on College Football?
Yes, it’s hard to envision how Notre Dame will score enough to win, but it shouldn’t be hard to imagine the Irish keeping it close in an ugly rock fight.
The pick: Notre Dame +8.5 (-110, ESPN BET)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
