A note from Scott: Over the 11 days since the Oscar nominations announcement on Jan. 23, the entire Oscar race has been upended by a scandal involving the trailblazing best actress Oscar nominee Karla Sofía Gascón. To a degree still to be determined, the film in which Gascón played the title character, Netflix’s Emilia Pérez, has also suffered collateral damage.
Which film or films will be the greatest beneficiary or beneficiaries of this shocking and sad situation? That is the million dollar question.
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As you will see below, my hunch is that one will be Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown (a likely best adapted screenplay WGA Award winner and possible PGA Award and best ensemble SAG Award winner), which has late-breaking momentum and seems tailor-made for the preferential ballot through which the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences chooses its best picture winner.
But also still very much in the hunt are Focus’ Conclave (a likely best film BAFTA Award winner), A24’s The Brutalist (a likely DGA Award winner), Universal’s Wicked (a possible best ensemble SAG Award winner) and Neon’s Anora (a likely best original screenplay WGA Award winner).
This is all uncharted territory.
Keep in mind: some awards groups’ voting windows closed prior to the Gascón stuff blowing up, so we might still see “phantom” Emilia Pérez success at, say, the Critics Choice Awards on Friday and the PGA Awards on Saturday.
Please remember: You can bookmark this URL and return to it at any time to see my latest picks. Think of me like a meteorologist — my aim is to correctly predict what will happen, not to advocate for what I think should happen. My picks are arrived at by screening the films, consulting with the voters, analyzing the campaigns and studying the results of past seasons.
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