Ecuador presidential election puts spotlight on crime, climate change

The News

Ecuador’s presidential election will go to a run-off after the socialist opposition candidate performed strongly in first-round polls.

Incumbent President Daniel Noboa led left-wing frontrunner Luisa González by less than 1% by Sunday evening with a majority of votes counted, the head of the national electoral council said.

Gonzalez campaigned on Noboa’s poor record on crime, which became the dominant issue ahead of the vote. Still, polls had predicted Noboa to win in a single round of voting.

The run-off will likely occur on April 13 if the trend in results continues, Ecuador’s national electoral council said.

Noboa’s popularity has sagged in recent months amid a sharp rise in murders and rolling power cuts across the country. In response to crime, Noboa deployed the military and built massive prisons, a strategy modeled on El Salvador’s draconian crackdown.

Meanwhile Ecuador’s dependency on hydropower left it badly exposed after continent-wide droughts last year. “Climate change is not a new issue, but 2024 was the year it seemed to “graduate” to become a major political and economic risk in Latin America,” Americas Quarterly wrote.