Betting markets are skeptical DOGE will accomplish some of its big goals

• Elon Musk’s DOGE cost-cutting crusade faces some skepticism in the betting markets.

• Polymarket data shows bettors see slim chances some of DOGE’s goals will be achieved.

• Musk’s ambitious plans include budget cuts, a DOGE dividend, and an audit of the Fed.

From a “DOGE dividend” to auditing the gold reserves at Fort Knox, Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency has laid out some ambitious plans to trim the federal budget.

Maybe too ambitious, at least according to betting markets.

Data from crypto-based event betting platform Polymarket, which became renowned for accurately predicting the outcome of the 2024 Presidential election, show bettors think the odds of DOGE delivering on some of its loftiest promises are low

That’s despite aggressive initiatives from DOGE to date, including mass layoffs across various government agencies and the shuttering of the US Agency for International Development.

The official DOGE savings tracker claims to have already saved the government $65 billion. But that hasn’t been enough to boost bettor’s confidence that DOGE will reach some of its big objectives.

Here are the latest betting odds on the matter from Polymarket.

• Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

  • What Elon Musk said: Musk has targeted $2 trillion in budget cuts, and said even half that amount would be “an epic outcome.” For context, the federal government spent about $6.9 trillion in 2024, meaning DOGE would have to find $345 billion to cut in order to hit 5% this year.

  • “If we try for $2 trillion, we’ve got a good shot at getting one,” Musk said in a January interview posted to X.

• Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025?

  • What Elon Musk said: “I talked to the president and he is supportive of” the DOGE dividend idea,” Musk said at the CPAC conference last week. “It sounds like that is something we are going to do.”

  • An amount as high as $5,000 per taxpayer has been floated as a possible payout resulting from DOGE’s cost-cutting efforts.

• Will DOGE Audit the Federal Reserve before May?

  • What Elon Musk said: In response to a post on X about auditing the Federal Reserve, Musk responded by saying, “All aspects of the government must be fully transparent and accountable to the people. No exceptions, including, if not especially, the Federal Reserve.”

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