‘The Penguin’ stars Cristin Milioti and Colin Farrell lead the movie/limited series acting races

At this time last year, few likely had heard of Richard Gadd or Jessica Gunning, and the term “baby reindeer” didn’t immediately call to mind a harrowing exploration of sexual abuse and codependency. Yet, within a month, Baby Reindeer became one of last year’s most widely seen shows, and when the Emmy Awards announced its winners in the limited series and movie categories in September, Gadd, Gunning, and Baby Reindeer won. That’s illustrative of how quickly fortunes can change in the limited series race, which typically resets each season (save for an anthology series like Monsters or Fargo). Ahead, the early 2025 Emmy Awards odds in the movie/limited series categories.

Limited Series

3. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 8/1

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Potential Spoilers

3. Good American Family — 42/1

No limited series in this Emmy cycle performed as well this winter with the industry as The Penguin. HBO’s The Batman spinoff series won at the Writers Guild Awards and was nominated at the Producers Guild Awards and the Directors Guild Awards, where it received three individual bids. Better still is that at the two ceremonies where it lost, The Penguin was defeated by last year’s Emmy winners Baby Reindeer (which took top honors at the Producers Guild) and Ripley (as Steve Zaillian followed his Emmy Award for limited series directing with a Directors Guild victory). It also fared a lot better than its top 2024 competition, Apple TV+’s Disclaimer (which only received a nomination for filmmaker Alfonso Cuarón at the Directors Guild Awards), Netflix’s Monsters (which was blanked by the three main guilds), and FX’s Say Nothing (which hit with the Writers Guild). Still, all three shows are expected to garner nominations alongside overwhelming favorite The Penguin, with the fifth slot going to the FX limited series Dying for Sex. However, suppose recent history has taught us anything. In that case, this race will likely have a few surprises over the next several weeks, either as a presumed drama contender like Apple TV+’s Presumed Innocent switches classifications or an unexpected series pops like Baby Reindeer. Early shows that could break out include Netflix’s Adolescence (the series, out now, has already received loud critical acclaim) or the streamer’s starry series Sirens with Julianne Moore, Meghann Fahy, and Kevin Bacon.

TV Movie

2. Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy – 14/5

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Potential Spoilers

1. The Supremes At Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat – 30/1

3. Star Trek: Section 31 – 100/1

4. It’s What’s Inside – 100/1

5. Terry McMillan Presents Forever – 100/1

It’s been a while since the Emmys TV movie category was awarded during the Primetime Emmy Awards broadcast. The last time it happened was in 2017 when Black Mirror won its first of three consecutive Emmys for its episode “San Junipero.” Since the Black Mirror domination, the Television Academy has tweaked the eligibility rules here to exclude ongoing anthology series like Black Mirror and establish a requirement around running time (75 minutes or more). Those rule changes, plus the nature of the industry, have taken some shine off the TV-movie category, which typically includes several projects that would have just been theatrical releases even 10 years ago. That’s no different this year, where Rebel Ridge (an action thriller starring Aaron Pierre that feels like a modern update to First Blood) and Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (an actual hit movie overseas, where the fourth film in the Bridget Jones franchise has earned more than $100 million in theatrical release) lead the pack.

Movie/Limited Series Actress

1. Cristin Milioti, The Penguin — 31/20

2. Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex — 4/1

3. Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer — 9/2

4. Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy — 21/2

5. Ellen Pompeo, Good American Family — 15/1

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Potential Spoilers

1. Kaitlyn Dever, Apple Cider Vinegar — 30/1

2. Lola Petticrew, Say Nothing — 40/1

3. Lizzy Caplan, Zero Day — 100/1

4. Julianne Moore, Sirens — 100/1

5. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat — 100/1

Thanks to their strong showings this winter, Cristin Milioti (who won at the Critics Choice Awards, a non-industry event) and Cate Blanchett seem assured of future Emmy nominations. Meanwhile, the last time Michelle Williams led an FX limited series, she won: the actress received her first and only Emmy thus far for 2019’s Fosse/Verdon, and the expectation is that she’ll be a serious contender again this year for the FX show Dying for Sex. The rest of the category is currently occupied by two beloved stars who have never gotten Emmy recognition: Oscar winner Renée Zellweger, who stars again as Bridget Jones (one of the roles for which she received an Oscar nomination), and former Grey’s Anatomy lead Ellen Pompeo for the true-crime thriller Good American Family. However, if either falls out — for instance, the last time an actress in a TV movie was nominated was Laura Dern in 2018 for The Tale, meaning Zellweger’s potential nomination would have to break recent precedent — some dark horse contenders include Kaitlyn Dever for Apple Cider Vinegar, Petticrew for Say Nothing, and Julianne Moore for the unseen Sirens.

Movie/Limited Series Actor

1. Colin Farrell, The Penguin — 3/2

2. Kevin Kline, Disclaimer — 5/1

3. Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 11/2

4. Robert De Niro, Zero Day — 21/2

5. Brian Tyree Henry, Dope Thief — 14/1

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Potential Spoilers

1. Nicholas Alexander Chavez, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 28/1

2. Anthony Boyle, Say Nothing — 82/1

3. Aaron Pierre, Rebel Ridge — 100/1

4. Gael Garcia Bernal, La Maquina — 100/1

5. Owen Cooper, Adolescence — 100/1

Even at this early stage, it would be a real shock if Colin Farrell were not nominated for an Emmy. The Penguin star already won key precursor awards at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Golden Globe Awards, and Critics Choice Awards and defeated Emmy winner Gadd in all places. Farrell is as strong a bet to win as anyone else here. The other contenders include Kevin Kline (a triple nominee at those key winter ceremonies) and Koch, followed by race newcomers Robert De Niro and Brian Tyree Henry. Of the two, Henry feels more likely to keep his spot — at least based on the reviews and buzz for De Niro’s Netflix series Zero Day — but it’s possible both miss in favor of underdog contenders like Adolescence newcomer Cooper or perhaps Jake Gyllenhaal for Presumed Innocent if it makes the jump to limited.

Movie/Limited Supporting Actress

1. Deirdre O’Connell, The Penguin — 4/1

2. Lesley Manville, Disclaimer — 9/2

3. Sissy Spacek, Dying for Sex — 11/2

4. Angela Bassett, Zero Day — 19/2

5. Chloe Sevigny, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 19/2

6. Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex — 11/1

7. Edie Falco, The Parenting — 22/1

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Potential Spoilers

1. Christina Hendricks, Good American Family — 30/1

2. Joan Allen, Zero Day — 42/1

3. Imogen Faith Reid, Good American Family — 64/1

With Gunning out of the running, the limited series supporting actress race is as wide open as any category this year. So, an unknown like Gunning last year could emerge as a dominant force. Still, at the moment, Tony Award winner Deirdre O’Connell is in the lead for The Penguin (meaning the show could win three acting awards and a series honor if the odds hold). Contenders to watch, however, include Sissy Spacek and Jenny Slate for Dying for Sex and Imogen Faith Reid as the breakout on Good American Family. 

Movie/Limited Supporting Actor

1. Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 19/5

2. Liev Schreiber, The Perfect Couple — 11/2

3. Jesse Plemons, Zero Day — 17/2

4. Jay Duplass, Dying for Sex — 10/1

5. Brian Cox, The Parenting — 21/2

6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, Disclaimer — 13/1

7. Diego Luna, La Maquina — 20/1

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Potential Spoilers

1. Rhenzy Feliz, The Penguin — 25/1

2. Sacha Baron Cohen, Disclaimer — 25/1

3. Hugh Grant, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy — 30/1

With nominations from the Screen Actors Guild Awards and Golden Globe Awards, Javier Bardem feels safe for a bid. Liev Schreiber won at the Critics Choice Awards and was a delight on The Perfect Couple, so he could also carry over from the winter. The rest of the field is a mix of old and new, but two names to watch are Rhenzy Feliz for The Penguin (if the show is as strong as all available evidence indicates) and Stephen Graham for Adolescence.

Odds accurate as of March 14.

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