ROANOKE, Va. (WFXR) — Election Day is weeks away, but the election season is just days from beginning.
Tens of thousands of Virginians are expected to hit the polls as soon as Friday for the first day of early voting.
As it did across the nation, early voting played a significant role in the November 2020 general election and has maintained popularity since.
While the total number of ballots cast early dipped from 2.8 million in November 2020 to 2.3 million in November 2024, the number of in-person ballots rose from 1.7 million to 1.8 million.
“Many [voters] are thinking, why not just go ahead and vote?” said Virginia Tech political science professor Dr. Karen Hult. “Why worry about something else happening? I get ill, my kid gets ill. Something else changes. Let’s just go and get the vote cast.”
That said, statewide elections tend to drive lower voter turnouts than national elections do, especially in Virginia.
That was true in the 2021 election, which saw just 3.2 million voters, just a year after a Virginia record 4.4 million ballots in 2020.
“Many people are saying, I just voted for president,” said Hult. “I just voted for Congress. I have to go out and vote again. So, to some extent, people are sometimes not taken quite unaware, but they’re amazed at how often we vote in Virginia. That tends to drive turnout down a bit.”
While analysts do anticipate lower total turnout than in the November 2024 election, they are optimistic that it could challenge totals from the 2021 off-year elections.
“We’re going to see, I’m sure, quite a much lower turnout than in presidential election years,” said Hult. “But we may be seeing a turnout that’s perhaps more comparable to 2017 or maybe even 2021.”
A driving force will be the sheer number of high-profile races, highlighted by one of only two gubernatorial elections taking place nationally this year.
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“I think that voter turnout, I don’t think it’s going to be as high as a presidential election year, I think history has told us that,” said Liberty University department chair and professor of government Aaron S. Van Allen. “But I am expecting there to be a moderate amount of turnout for this election.”
But there is debate over which party stands to benefit more from high voter turnout, particularly in the early voting window.
Traditionally, early voting has swung the way of Democrats while Republicans have waited for Election Day.
However, Van Allen says that could be changing, and notes that the 2024 election offered the first glimpse into that shift.
“I can’t stress enough that Republicans have really shifted their tune when it comes to early voting, and it’s because they know it is going to be vital merely to compete across the entire Commonwealth,” said Van Allen.
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While closer than in past elections, Democrats still came away with strong performances in both the Presidential race and the U.S. Senate race in 2024.
Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 5.8 points on election night, but the former Vice President took the win in the early voting window by 7.3 points for a 13.1-point swing in total.
A similar thing happened for Tim Kaine, who Republican challenger Hung Cao defeated by 1.5 points on election day, but carried early voting totals by 9.2 points, resulting in a 10.7-point difference.
While he finds it unlikely that Republicans could make up that gap in full by this fall, he believes there is a good chance the party can continue narrowing the gap as they continue to encourage voters to get out early.
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