TRENTON – After years as a reliably “blue” state, New Jersey might be turning a darker shade of purple, buoyed by booming Republican enthusiasm – especially at the Jersey Shore.
Republicans are driving voter registration across New Jersey and particularly in Monmouth and Ocean counties, according to state election data. There were about 1.7 million registered Republicans in New Jersey as of Oct. 1, a 17% increase since 2020 and a nearly 40% increase since October 2016.
In the last five years, the number of registered Democrats has largely stalled, while Republican registrations have skyrocketed.
Those gains are most keenly felt at the Jersey Shore, where the number of registered Republicans has increased nearly 55% since 2016.
As of Oct. 1, 2025, there were 368,857 registered Republican voters and 245,295 registered Democratic voters in Monmouth and Ocean counties, along with 356,712 unaffiliated voters.
On Oct. 1, 2016, there were 237,258 Republicans, 199,708 Democrats and 395,475 unaffiliated voters.
“Monmouth and Ocean are a microcosm of what we’re seeing statewide – a narrowing of the number of registered Democrats versus the number of registered Republicans,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “The Democrats have shrunk a little bit. The unaffiliated voters have shrunk a little bit. But the Republicans have become an even more dominant party than they were.”
That domination is somewhat unique to the Shore.
In Ocean County, Republicans outnumber Democrats by a two-to-one margin. The margin is much closer in Monmouth County where Republicans have an advantage of about 25,000 voters.
There are still about 800,000 more Democrats than Republicans statewide, but recent elections have pointed to a far-more motivated Republican base.
Gov. Phil Murphy limped to a three-point reelection win in 2021, far closer than most polls had predicted. And last year, President Donald Trump finished less than six points behind Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
“New Jersey Republicans are just doing much more of the legwork right now,” Rasmussen said. “And they’re finding a receptive audience.”
Why Lakewood, Ocean County key to a Ciattarelli victory
If the Ciattarelli camp is celebrating on Election Night, they’ll likely have Ocean County to thank.
Ocean County is the bright red Republican core of New Jersey politics. Nearly 12% of all registered Republicans live in Ocean County, and it has the highest ratio of Republicans to Democrats of any county in the state.
The goal for Ciattarelli: Turn that advantage into domination on Election Day.
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It’s a simple strategy, but a proven one. If Ocean County Republican turnout is strong, Ciattarelli might be able to make up the difference from the traditional Democratic strongholds that will be carried by Mikie Sherrill, such as Essex and Hudson.
Those counties, too, have seen the number of registered Republicans skyrocket in the last decade. But Republican voters there are still outnumbered by more than four-to-one.
“In a general election, you’ve got a vote bank. You have the chance to really go in and drill down on the Republicans in Monmouth and Ocean. It’s going to be pretty fertile ground,” Rasmussen said. “It’s really important for Ciattarelli to maximize the votes in those two counties. They can help carry him over the top statewide.”
Lakewood area could tip the scales for Ciattarelli
Key to Jack Ciattarelli’s success will be voters in the Lakewood area.
About 25% of voters turned out for the 2017 gubernatorial election in Lakewood. Even though Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno won 62% of the vote in Ocean County, she lost by about 100 votes in Lakewood.
Despite the backing of traditional Republican organizations, she was missing a key endorsement. The Lakewood Vaad, an influential group of religious and business leaders, instead threw their weight behind Murphy.
The group endorsed Murphy again in 2021, but to no avail: Lakewood voters overwhelmingly supported Ciattarelli anyway. He won 61% of Lakewood votes, as well as 67% of votes in Ocean County.
This year, the Vaad endorsed Ciattarelli, who has been a frequent attendee at local Republican meetings and community events throughout the Lakewood area.
And the race comes at a time of peak mobilization among Orthodox Jewish voters in Lakewood and beyond.
In Jackson, Mordechai Burnstein became the first Orthodox Jewish person elected to the township council and later named its president. Sam Ellenbogen won a seat on the county board of commissioners, the first Orthodox Jewish member of the body.
And in 2023, Assemblyman Avi Schnall won 87% of votes while cruising to election in the 30th District. He was also endorsed by the Vaad, despite running as a Democrat.
With the Vaad’s backing and a motivated Republican voter base, Rasmussen said it’s not far-fetched to expect Ciattarelli to capture 80% or 90% of votes in Lakewood – far more than he captured in 2021.
It’s too soon to know if that can make up for Sherrill’s expected wins elsewhere in the state. But if Ciattarelli hopes to improve on his 2021 performance to close the gap — he lost by about 85,000 votes — it’s a great place to start, Rasmussen said.
“‘Lakewood’ doesn’t just mean Lakewood,” Rasmussen said. “The Vaad’s endorsement is influential in Jackson, in Howell, in Toms River. It’s going to carry weight, and it’s going to carry votes more than in just Lakewood itself.”
Registration does not equal turnout
Voter registration is only half the battle.
Since 2000, state voter turnout in gubernatorial elections has never topped 50%. Since 2013, turnout hasn’t even topped 40%.
It’s a little higher at the Shore – turnout in Monmouth and Ocean counties topped 48% in 2021, compared to less than 41% statewide – but still far below turnout levels for the presidential elections, which have hovered between two-thirds and three-quarters of registered voters.
“My sense is that voter interest is a little bit higher this time than last time,” Rasmussen said. “We have a potential to get above the 40% mark from last time.”
The early returns from mail-in ballots don’t provide any more clarity of what turnout will look like this year.
As of Oct. 20, about 358,000 voters had already returned their mail-in ballots – about 63% of which came from registered Democrats, according to VoteHub, an independent, nonpartisan website analyzing elections. About 22% of returned ballots came from registered Republicans.
Those numbers seem to correlate with voter registration data: Compared to this point in 2021, Democratic ballots make up a slightly lower share of the returns, while Republican ballots are slightly higher, Rasmussen said.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story, Rasmussen said.
Early, in-person voting begins Oct. 25, which will provide more information about turnout trends heading into Election Day.
“If Democrats are ahead in vote-by-mail, but they’re behind in early in-person voting, we know they’ll have to make up ground on Election Day. But if they’re ahead in both, they might have more wiggle room,” Rasmussen said. “The voting mode doesn’t matter, but it does give you the tea leaves.”
Mike Davis is an investigative reporter with the Asbury Park Press, where he’s covered local news, politics, transportation and the cannabis industry. His work has changed laws, prompted government investigations and even won a few awards, which make his parents very proud. Contact him at [email protected], @byMikeDavis on social media platforms or send an encrypted message via Signal @bymikedavis.22.
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Jersey Shore voter registration could be key in NJ governor race
