Odd-year elections don’t involve congressional, senatorial or presidential candidates so they attract little attention. A few states and cities have elections, among them Virginia, New Jersey and New York City. Here, in my home state of Connecticut, some towns have municipal elections.
Nonetheless, the tea leaves can be interpreted.
The main results were that New Jersey and Virginia elected Democratic governors, New York City elected a self-described socialist, a California referendum championed by Gov. Gavin Newsom allowed further gerrymandering, and Pennsylvania retained three Democratic justices for their Supreme Court.
Republican spinmeisters are writing off these results as they occurred in Democratic states. But what these spinmeisters are failing to recognize is that none of these elections were even close. Both Democratic gubernatorial candidates won by comfortable double-digit margins.
The new socialist mayor of New York City eclipsed 50% in a three-way race after the highest turn out in decades. California approved gerrymandering by a huge 63%. Pennsylvania retained Democratic judges by over 60%. In Connecticut, Republicans got slaughtered in a massacre that would embarrass Attila the Hun.
What does this mean? Here goes:
President Donald Trump is not popular. While his presidency has accomplished a great deal – closing our borders, neutering Iran, lowering gas prices, making progress in the Mid East, bringing industry and investment to the United States etc. – he has not conquered the Big Enchilada: inflation. Housing prices and rents are out of control. The premiums for health insurance, car insurance and homeowner’s insurance continue to skyrocket.
This is the main reason for Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory in New York City. Young people who have never experienced the disaster of socialism are outraged because they are paying $5,000 a month to live in an ant colony while few make wages high enough to meet other daily escalating expenses comfortably.
And this is a national trend. As one young man stated in his viral video (and I paraphrase): “My grandfather and grandmother bought a house when they were my age and started having kids. I can’t even afford an apartment let alone a girlfriend.”
The Democrats are going to have a huge fight between moderates and liberals. In 2016 and 2020, moderate Democrats shafted self-proclaimed socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders by rigging the delegate rules to deny him the nomination. The result: Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, and the ineffective President Joe Biden poisoned the well enough to allow a Trump victory in 2024.
Liberal Democrats are furious and are now screaming, “It’s our turn.” And they have a point. It was liberal Democrats who organized and marched in the No Kings protest. It was liberal Democrats who had gave moderate Democrats the spine to stand up to President Trump and shut down the government. And the result? Liberal Democrats showed up in droves to create the huge Democratic victories that just occurred.
But moderate Democrats still believe a liberal presidential nominee in 2028 is unelectable. Furthermore, most billionaires are Democrats, not Republicans, and dislike liberal socialist schemes.
California Governor Newsom is on the rise. Democrats hope to overcome the slim Republican majority and retake the House in 2026. The problem is that Democrats have gerrymandered almost all the Blue States so that they cannot steal any more seats. For example, in Deep Blue New England, President Trump won 40% of the vote but there is not a single Republican Congressman. Similar situations exist in New York, Maryland and Illinois. Presently, California is well-gerrymandered with 43 Democratic and only nine Republican seats. But with creative software, Republicans could lose four or five more seats. And Governor Newsom is successfully choreographing this.
President Obama is not going away. Most former presidents keep a low profile. Carter, Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Clinton, George W. Bush and even Joe Biden rarely make political statements. Not President Obama, mainly because his legacy can be described in two words: Donald Trump. Obama is determined to destroy President Trump’s base, and he worked like a dog to help Kamala Harris and the Democratic candidates this cycle. He will do the same in 2026 and if he doesn’t like any of the Presidential candidates in 2028, he may entice his wife Michelle to run.
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court will allow the liberal interpretation of ballot harvesting rules. Philadelphia Democrats harvest ballots with such efficacy that even a Bridgeport alderman would blush. But it was not enough to stop the Trump tsunami in 2024. But with some more creative voting rules, this crucial swing state could go Democratic in 2028 if the Pennsylvania Supreme Court allows it.
The problem with this analysis is that it merely points out that the Democratic states are becoming more Democratic. The same phenomenon is happening in Republican states, but this election cycle did not generate enough meaningful data in this area. But the 2026 election will do so. Stay tuned.
Joseph Bentivegna MD is an ophthalmologist in Rocky Hill.
