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Moral victories are valuable only for losers. But a year after a catastrophic defeat in the 2024 presidential election, Democrats were happy to take a moral victory on Tuesday night in a Tennessee special election.
In a deep-red district that Donald Trump won by more than 20 points in 2024, Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn dramatically closed the gap into the high single digits. With over 95 percent of precincts reporting, Republican Matt Van Epps managed a victory of 54 percent to 45 percent over his opponent, who in recent weeks had become a progressive darling and right-wing bugbear.
The race was a bellwether for 2026, and Democrats hailed the result. They had turned a safe seat into a competitive one, suggesting a wide-open battlefield next year, when not only the House but the U.S. Senate will be in reach as well.
Republicans took their own victory lap. “No matter what the D.C. insiders or liberal media say, this is President Trump’s party,” Van Epps said during his victory speech, according to the Associated Press. “I’m proud to be a part of it and can’t wait to get to work.”
And on some level, the GOP is correct: Even though this is SEC country, politics isn’t like college football, and strength of victory doesn’t matter. But this race was never about just one seat; it was a gauge of each party’s vitality heading into 2026. And on that front, Behn’s 9-point loss suggests that the party has gained significant ground—especially given Trump’s besting of Kamala Harris by 22 points here last fall.
Democrats would have needed a perfect storm to win a special election in a district like this. Behn is a steadfast progressive with a history of intemperate online comments tailor-made for 30-second television ads and Fox News monologues. By the end of the race, Trump was attacking her for allegedly hating both Christianity and country music. Although Behn sang Dolly Parton’s “9 to 5” in a rhinestone-studded denim suit before delivering her concession speech, that was probably not a sufficient or a timely rebuttal to the barrage she faced on television in the last weeks of the campaign.
In contrast, Van Epps, a first-time candidate, didn’t make any unforced errors. A dark-haired, clean-cut military veteran who put a helicopter on all of his yard signs to emphasize his service, he was the platonic ideal of a generic Republican. He embraced Trump sufficiently to appeal to the base but did not overemphasize the president in TV ads, lest it antagonize those swing voters who might be unhappy with the cost of living.
Tuesday’s election also featured turnout far higher than that of a typical special election; the number of ballots cast roughly equaled turnout in the 2022 midterms, which featured races up and down the ballot. (The congressional special election was the only contest.)
In such a deep-red district, the heavy turnout would have made it near impossible for any Democratic candidate to claim an election-night victory when stalwart conservatives like Anne Campbell of Franklin turned out to vote. “I basically don’t like what the Democrat stands for,” she told Slate. “I believe in prayer. I believe in freedom, which she does not.”
A last-minute blitz of television ads and a full day trip from Speaker Mike Johnson helped raise awareness of the race just enough to activate Republicans to cast a ballot days after Thanksgiving.
As Behn said of her performance in her concession speech, “They thought they could buy [an] easy double-digit” win. It helped that, at a rally the day before at a suburban estate, Republicans emphasized the need for a definitive victory. “It’s not just winning but winning by a wide enough margin to send a real Tennessee message,” said Bill Lee, the Volunteer State’s governor. While one poll had the contest within a 2-point margin, operatives in both parties expected Van Epps to take the race in the mid-to-high single digits. He did the latter in what was, at best for the GOP, a mixed Tennessee message.
Because of the significant turnout, those national Democrats are spinning the race as a massive success. It’s easier to claim that this special election is a harbinger for the midterms when its turnout approaches that which is expected next year.
Still, the crowd at Behn’s watch party seemed mostly unconcerned with assessing the broader ramifications or reading the tea leaves to determine how vulnerable this might leave Republicans in seats across the country in 2026.
Even long after the race had been called for Van Epps, attendees continued to dance and celebrate. Just as they ignored the burning smell in the room from the pop-up stand selling $12 hot dogs, they didn’t let the defeat bother them.
After all, Democrats in Tennessee had been losers for nearly 20 years. They would take a moral victory tonight.
