Who’s No. 11? Editors pick the dark horse film that will crash the Best Picture slate

It’s official: We have a frontrunner!

One Battle After Another has cemented its position at the top of the leaderboards with a hat trick of wins at the Gotham Awards, the New York Film Critics Circle, and the National Board of Review. It’s predicted to perform equally well when the nominations for the Critics Choice Awards are announced tomorrow, followed by the Golden Globes on Monday.

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So here’s an odd question: What’s No. 11?

With 10 slots for Best Picture — and the final film in the conversation, Avatar: Fire and Ash, finally screened for critics — that race is finally taking shape. But while the top half of the list seems relatively solid — One Battle, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, and Marty Supreme — it’s the bottom half where things get far murkier. And with that, comes the question of just which films will make the cut. Will the international voting body propel in two or even three features from outside the U.S., like It Was Just an Accident and No Other Choice? Will sequel-itis impact Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash? And what films can play spoiler? Read on for our editors’ predictions for which films they’d see like to break into the top 10.

Oscars Nominations 2026

Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best International Film

Contender

Odds

1.

One Battle After Another

95.0%

2.

Sinners

94.4%

3.

Hamnet

93.8%

4.

Sentimental Value

91.9%

5.

Marty Supreme

91.6%

6.

It Was Just an Accident

85.4%

7.

Frankenstein

85.0%

8.

Wicked: For Good

67.0%

9.

Avatar: Fire and Ash

61.5%

10.

Bugonia

43.2%

11.

Train Dreams

34.6%

12.

The Secret Agent

29.1%

13.

No Other Choice

21.3%

14.

Jay Kelly

19.1%

15.

The Testament of Ann Lee

8.8%

16.

Weapons

4.9%

17.

F1: The Movie

2.2%

18.

A House of Dynamite

2.0%

19.

Wake Up Dead Man

2.0%

20.

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

1.3%

21.

Nuremberg

1.2%

22.

Blue Moon

1.1%

23.

Rental Family

1.0%

24.

Sorry, Baby

0.9%

25.

Is This Thing On?

0.7%

26.

The Voice of Hind Rajab

0.7%

27.

The Smashing Machine

0.6%

28.

Die, My Love

0.6%

29.

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

0.5%

30.

After the Hunt

0.4%

31.

Materialists

0.4%

32.

28 Years Later

0.3%

33.

Sirât

0.3%

34.

The Life of Chuck

0.3%

35.

Nouvelle Vague

0.3%

36.

Kiss of the Spider Woman

0.2%

37.

The Phoenician Scheme

0.2%

38.

Hedda

0.2%

39.

Father, Mother, Sister, Brother

0.2%

40.

Eddington

0.2%

41.

Ballad of a Small Player

0.1%

42.

Eternity

0.1%

43.

Black Bag

0.1%

44.

Pillion

0.1%

45.

The Mastermind

0.1%

46.

Song Sung Blue

0.1%

47.

The History of Sound

0.1%

48.

Twinless

0.1%

49.

Roofman

0.1%

50.

Eleanor the Great

0.1%

51.

Caught Stealing

0.1%

52.

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

0.1%

53.

The Long Walk

0.0%

54.

A Private Life

0.0%

55.

Christy

—

56.

Anemone

—

57.

Dead Man’s Wire

0.0%

58.

Rosemead

—

59.

The Summer Book

—

60.

The Choral

—

61.

Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight

0.0%

62.

40 Acres

0.0%

63.

Peter Hujar’s Day

—

64.

La grazia

—

65.

A Little Prayer

—

66.

Tuner

—

67.

Bad Apples

—

68.

The Actor

—

69.

The Plague

—

70.

Lucky Lu

—

71.

Ella McCay

0.0%

72.

The Roses

0.0%

73.

In Your Dreams

—

74.

Highest 2 Lowest

0.0%

75.

The Chronology of Water

0.0%

76.

Last Days

—

77.

Good Fortune

0.0%

78.

The Lost Bus

0.0%

See All Predictions

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Debra’s pick: Train Dreams

Train Dreams was the first film I screened this season, even before Telluride, and it set the bar high. No fanfare, no bells and whistles (well, maybe a train whistle) — just a simple story, beautifully told, shot, and performed about a man’s life, love, and loss. There are splashier, noisier films in the race this year, but I predict Academy voters will ultimately fall for Clint Bentley‘s intimate yet universal portrait exquisitely acted by Joel Edgerton — with one of the highest Rotten Tomatoes scores of the year. It’s proving to be the little engine that could of awards season: It already made NBR and AFI’s best-of lists, and earned three Spirit Award nominations for Best Feature, Best Director and Best Lead Performance.

---

Marcus’ pick: Wake Up Dead Man

The third time’s still a charm for Rian Johnson and Daniel Craig‘s wildly entertaining whodunit series. Craig is back on the beat as the unstumpable Benoit Blanc, savoring every morsel of scenery while sleuthing out a “classic impossible crime” — the locked-door murder of a small-town priest. The twisty mystery plays second fiddle to the sublime performances, from the revelatory Josh O’Connor as the accused junior pastor to the rest of the supporting gang — Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Jeremy Renner, Kerry Washington, Mila Kunis, Thomas Haden Church, Jeffrey Wright, Cailee Spanee, and Daryl McCormack — with their knives out for each other. In a just world, the crackerjack cast will be up for every Best Ensemble award, while Johnson’s script — which tackles issues of true faith vs. reckless crusading — will be shortlisted throughout the awards season. With AFI and NBR declaring it one of the year’s 10 best, there’s plenty of evidence that Wake Up Dead Man deserves a Best Picture nod. Case closed.

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Ethan’s pick: The Testament of Ann Lee

Here’s my testimony: I’ve been an Ann Lee acolyte since the film’s Toronto International Film Festival bow. And there’s one scene in particular — you’ll know it when you see it — that made me a full convert in terms of its Best Picture prospects. Mona Fastvold‘s daring period musical is rooted in two of the key elements for any serious contender: performance and craft. For the actors in the Academy, you’ve got Amanda Seyfried singing and dancing her heart out at center stage as the titular Shaker founder. Meanwhile, the below the line guilds can delight in seeing a team of expert artisans bring the past to life on a budget without sacrificing the little handcrafted details that keep the world-building authentic. We hunger and thirst for big, bold creative swings like this.

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Kevin’s pick: The Secret Agent

Kleber Mendonça Filho‘s political thriller is an exploration of history — both national and personal — that expertly deploys Wagner Moura as a man who, in a just world, would have no business appearing in a political thriller. Instead of focusing on the intrigue and gunplay in 1970s Brazil (which is still has plenty of, along with some of the gnarliest on-screen violence in recent memory), The Secret Agent keeps its focus squarely on the lives upset by unsettling times and the cost of inhumanity, now and in the decades to come. While Moura justifiably could make the cut for Best Actor, the scope and scale of the entire film deserves broader recognition.

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Denton’s pick: No Other Choice

No Other Choice is already hunting down its Best Picture competition — one contender at a time. Park Chan-wook taps straight into real-world anxiety about job insecurity and the growing fear of AI replacing us, all through a darkly funny story about a laid-off paper company worker pushed way past his limits. It helps that critics are eating it up: the film has a perfect 100 percent on Rotten Tomatoes and an 86 on Metacritic, one of the strongest combos of the year. And with the Academy becoming more international every year — and non-English films breaking into Best Picture more often — this could easily be one of up to four foreign-language titles cracking the top 10. If voters are looking for something sharp, timely, and impossible to shake, they may have — well — no other choice.

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MJD’s pick: Weapons

Academy Awards voters have always been afraid of the horror genre, with only one such film winning the Best Picture prize: The Silence of the Lambs (1991). However, since then, we’ve seen scary flicks like The Substance (2024), Get Out (2017), Black Swan (2010), and The Sixth Sense (1999) all nominated in the top category. Might Weapons join the frightening list this year? Zach Cregger‘s film about a classroom of kids who go missing is not just a cultural phenomenon and a box-office smash — it’s now an award winner. Amy Madigan claimed the Best Supporting Actress trophy at the New York Film Critics Circle for her wild portrayal of Aunt Gladys, a red-headed witch who preys on children (you probably saw dozens of her on Halloween). While Madigan looks to be on track for an Oscar nomination, we have our fingers crossed that voters don’t overlook Weapons itself in Best Picture.

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Mia’s pick: Jay Kelly

Jay Kelly has all the makings of an awards contender: a star-studded cast featuring George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, and Billy Crudup; an acclaimed writer-director in Noah Baumbach; and, of course, a story centered on Hollywood’s favorite subject — Hollywood itself. I saw the film twice, and it wasn’t until the second viewing that the sharpness of the dialogue and the subtlety of the performances truly stood out. Some lines land with a single, biting emotional punch. While Riley Keough and Grace Edwards, as Kelly’s daughters, bring genuine heart and depth, rounding out an already exceptional ensemble.

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Chris’ pick: Blue Moon

As various awards and nominations have been announced in recent weeks, Ethan Hawke‘s name is mentioned more and more. He is a whirlwind in the Richard Linklater film, set over the course of one evening in the Sardi’s bar of New York City. I’m not certain how Hawke can convey so much dialogue in such a compelling way, appearing in almost every clever minute of the movie as fading lyricist Lorenz Hart. While Blue Moon‘s best chances for Oscar success are four-time Academy Awards nominee Hawke as lead actor, Andrew Scott playing composer Richard Rodgers in supporting (both actors were nominated at the Gotham Awards), and Robert Kaplow for his screenplay, there’s an outside shot for the film to sneak in for Best Picture.

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Agree? Disagree? Got another candidate? Let us know in the comments, and be sure to make your own picks now!

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