It’s fair to say that Boise State has been a disappointment in 2025. The Broncos were tipped as the cream of the crop in the Group of 5, and were the consensus favorite to represent the G5 in the College Football Playoff in the preseason.
An embarrassing loss to South Florida in Week 1 set the tone for a turbulent campaign in Idaho, but somehow the Broncos were able to claw their way to the top of the Mountain West standings by season’s end, clinching home-field advantage in Friday night’s conference title game against UNLV.
The Broncos are 3.5-point favorites over the Rebels.
UNLV vs. Boise State odds, prediction
UNLV is not a complicated team.
Dan Mullen’s team wants to turn every game into a track meet and you can bet that their offense will outscore yours. For the most part, that formula has worked.
UNLV has won 10 of 12 games this season, with its only losses coming against New Mexico and Boise State. The Rebels are averaging 37.1 points per game (10th in FBS), 457.2 yards per contest (14th) and 6.8 yards per play (seventh).
Even more impressive is that UNLV boasts a balanced attack, ranking 11th in yards per carry and 16th in yards per completion.
Betting on College Football?
The flipside of the coin is that UNLV’s defense is gettable. The Rebels concede nearly 28 points and 410 yards per contest, which gets them into trouble if the offense isn’t clicking or they’re going up against a strong defense.
The latter shouldn’t be a huge issue on Friday.
Boise State’s defense grades out better than UNLV’s, but not by a wide margin, and the Broncos have been inconsistent on offense throughout the season.
UNLV’s 56-31 loss to Boise State may scare bettors off, but the other side of that coin is it is providing you with an opportunity to get a discount on the better team in this matchup.
The Play: UNLV (+152, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
