DENVER — Everyone in New England knows the numbers and hopes history will reverse itself.
The Patriots play the Broncos for a berth into Super Bowl 2026 on Sunday, knowing they have played four postseason games in Denver and never won.
The 1986 New England team lost at Denver in the divisional round (22-17), then lost in the divisional round in the 2015 season (27-13), the AFC Championship game in the 2013 season (26-16) and again in conference title game following the 2015 season (20-18).
The 16-3 Patriots advanced to this AFC Championship game by virtue of their 28-16 win over the Texans at home last week in the divisional round.
This is New England’s first conference championship game appearance since the 2018 team won Super Bowl LIII but their 14th trip since 2000.
The 15-3 Broncos, the No. 1 seed, defeated the Bills, 33-30, in an overtime thriller at home that ended in controversy with the refereeing crew making a more significant impact in overtime than the players.
As much a storyline as the Broncos advancing and the Bills being screwed by a couple of those dubious calls is the fact that Denver lost productive second-year quarterback Bo Nix to a fractured right ankle in the final moments of last week’s game.
He will be replaced by 29-year-old backup and 2019 Patriots fourth-round draft pick Jarrett Stidham, who’s started just four games in his four-year NFL career and hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since 2023.
Statistically, the teams are close.
Offensively, the Patriots have the edge in average points scored (28.8 to 23.6) and total yards per game (379.4 to 342.6). They have 16 turnovers to 17 for Denver.
Denver has the slight edge on defense, though, allowing 18.3 points per game to 18.8 for the Patriots, and yielding 278.2 yards per game to 295.2 for New England. The Patriots, however, have 19 takeaways to 14 for Denver.
If the Patriots beat the Broncos, they will be the sixth team this century to finish last place in their division then reach the Super Bowl the following season.
While the Patriots are 8-0 on the road this season, the Broncos have won 15 of their past 18 home games.
“We try to preach it through the entire offseason being able to establish an identity that travels,’’ Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel said. “You have to be resilient.’’
Can resilience help with the mile-high altitude?
“Physiologically, you have to be at altitude for longer than a day or two or three [to become acclimated],” Vrabel said. “It takes time to do that. So, we’ll do what we’ve always done. We’ll travel, be in condition and be ready to play. Just play well, try to be prepared and the better condition that you are, the less of an impact that that’s going to make. There’s no tricks.”
The Patriots clean road record is particularly impressive considering they’re led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who’s actually played slightly better on the road than at home this season. He has 17 touchdowns and three interceptions on the road and 14 TDs and five INTs at home.
New England’s rookie safety Craig Woodson, for one, didn’t want to hear about the high altitude in Denver.
“We’re 8-0 on the road, so I don’t think there’s anything that we really need to change up,’’ he said. “We’ve had success on the road. We’re going to continue to have success.’’
