America’s obesity problem is tipping the scales.
A study published in JAMA projects a staggering 47% of American adults will be living with obesity by 2035, citing the country’s rapidly rising rates over more than three decades.
But the study’s data ends at 2022 — and thanks to the rise in GLP-1s, a lot has changed in the past three years.
The study crunched decades of BMI data taken from several nationally representative surveys, tracking obesity rates from 1990 to 2022 and projecting where they’ll land by 2035.
University of Washington researchers found that in 2022 alone, more than 107 million American adults (42% of the population) were living with obesity — an increase of roughly 72 million people (19% of the population) since 1990.
Following that trend, they expect the numbers to grow further over the next decade: By 2035, they expect that number to swell to 126 million adults, further straining an already overburdened health care system.
But notably, the researchers stopped their analysis just before US obesity rates began to show early signs of slipping.
According to Gallup survey data released in October, adult obesity rates fell to 37% in 2025 — a drop many experts link to the explosive rise of GLP-1 drugs, including the blockbuster names Ozempic and Wegovy.
Originally developed to treat diabetes, these medications have become go-to weight-loss tools nationwide, reshaping the conversation around obesity.
A November report from KFF found that one in eight adults is currently taking a GLP-1 to lose weight or manage a chronic condition. Nearly one in five Americans say they’ve tried one at some point.
With the GLP-1 boom showing no signs of slowing — and new drugs already on the horizon — it’s unclear how much the trend will reshape America’s obesity trajectory.
And certainly, not every expert is convinced the drugs will “solve” the obesity epidemic.
“The apparent easy fixes aren’t really changing behaviors,” said Dr. Armando Castro-Tie, chair of surgery at South Shore University Hospital and senior vice president physician executive for the Eastern Market of Northwell Health, who was not involved in the study.
“The thing with GLP-1s that I think is disturbing to many of us that work with obesity is that it’s sort of deemed to have been the magic pill. It’s not really addressing the core issues at hand of what really drives obesity in a person.
“And it’s different for everybody. But until behaviors change, all we’re doing is putting a bandage on something and not really addressing the core problem.”
Castro-Tie noted that obesity is just the tip of a dangerous iceberg, with a host of serious health problems lurking beneath the surface.
“Look at the rates of heart disease, diabetes, pulmonary disease and certain types of cancers. All of those are correlated with higher BMI,” he said.
“If we don’t curb it, especially in the childhood and adolescent age groups, then we’re just going to be dealing with an overall more morbid population,” he continued. “Are our health care system and infrastructure equipped to handle that? Arguably, probably not.”
One thing is certain: Obesity isn’t spread evenly across the country.
Over the 30-year study period, researchers found major gaps by race, ethnicity and age — and those gaps are only expected to widen.
Young women experienced some of the sharpest increases overall. Among Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women, obesity rates climbed fastest in those aged 30 to 34.
For non-Hispanic Black women, the steepest rise came even earlier — ages 25 to 29 — with obesity rates jumping from 26.1% to 52.9%.
Among men, the gains were more spread out, with the biggest increases occurring between the mid-40s and early 70s, depending on the group.
State-by-state, the differences were also stark.
In 2022, women had the highest obesity rates in Oklahoma, where a staggering 54% were obese. For men, Indiana topped the list at 47.2%.
Looking ahead to 2035, the numbers get even heavier.
Obesity among women is projected to peak in South Dakota, reaching 59.5%, while Indiana is expected to hold onto its unwanted title for men, climbing to 53.6%.
Across the board, non-Hispanic Black women had the highest obesity rates in every state — in both 2022 and the projections for 2035.
