Lining the lobby windows of USC’s sprawling new practice facility are eight versions of the most recognizable award in college football.
Upstairs, along a hallway, are massive snapshots of each of the Trojan winners on their big night in New York. Caleb Williams is shown in his plaid Gucci suit with one arm extended, breaking out the game’s most identifiable pose.
Even this most cherished legion of Trojans would always be happy to make room for one more.
Is it Jayden Maiava’s turn to strike his own pose and hoist the Heisman Trophy?
While the preseason narrative – This is his year! Look at all the talent around him! He’s grown so much going into his third year in the program and second as the full-time starter! – sounds enticing enough to hop on the hype train, it’s going to be a heck of a slog over treacherous terrain.
To put it bluntly, the odds aren’t in Maiava’s favor. Not even close
There are some lingering concerns about his accuracy on medium and long throws – particularly while on the move – and he’s not even on UCLA counterpart Nico Iamaleava’s level as a runner.
He’ll have a retooled but promising receiving corps to work with, along with a veteran offensive line and a dynamic running back duo in Waymond Jordan and King Miller. There’s also the arrival of Gary Patterson, the latest defensive coordinator intent on reviving the team’s weaker half.
Coach Lincoln Riley said he expects another massive jump in Maiava’s play after he threw for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns last season, but that alone won’t be enough.
This is a Heisman bid that will hinge on so much more than Maiava’s numbers. Let’s start with something non-negotiable: Making the College Football Playoff is going to be a must.
That’s something USC hasn’t accomplished under three coaches since its inception in 2014. Riley, who went to the CFP twice with Oklahoma, hasn’t returned in four seasons with the Trojans.
Yes, Williams won the Heisman in 2022 when the Trojans missed the CFP and headed to the Cotton Bowl, but that was back when the event involved just four teams.
Making the 12-team CFP this season is essential for Maiava in his bid to join Williams, Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart as the only quarterbacks in school history to win the Heisman.
Can USC get there? There doesn’t seem to be a strong consensus in the affirmative. The Trojans will open the season ranked No. 14 in the AFCA Coaches Poll, and many prognosticators have left them out of their mock playoff brackets.
Part of the skepticism is undoubtedly rooted in one of the nation’s toughest schedules, even with Notre Dame temporarily no longer in the mix.
Potential stumbling blocks include not just the usual suspects – Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana – but Washington under coach Jedd Fisch, who’s become something of a Trojan Killer, and even UCLA under the fearless Bob Chesney.
The Trojans almost surely can’t drop more than two games and get into the CFP. That means they’re probably going to have to at least split that nasty late-season stretch that includes Ohio State at the Coliseum on Oct. 31 and Indiana in Bloomington on Nov. 14.
Riley also has something of a bad habit of suffering unexpected losses – remember Illinois last season, Maryland in 2024 and UCLA in 2023? There can’t be any of those in 2026 or it could be farewell for Riley in addition to any Heisman hopes for Maiava.
Working in Maiava’s favor is the chance to upstage several other top Heisman contenders in head-to-head battles. They include Oregon quarterback Dante Moore as well as Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.
Indiana is likely to have its own candidate – most likely quarterback Josh Hoover – emerge given coach Curt Cignetti’s charmed run.
There will likely be multiple moments of truth, the ball in Maiava’s hands late in a game with him needing to make a play to pull out a tough win and etch his name in Trojans lore.
When Williams accepted his Heisman four years ago, he told the other finalists in the room that he also envied them.
“I may be standing up here today,” Williams said, “but y’all get to go to the College Football Playoff. Guess you can’t win them all.”
Maiava’s bid to win the Heisman might depend on doing just that.
Make the CFP, notch that long-awaited breakthrough and Maiava just could bring home another trophy to place in that lobby.
