The trade war with Canada is hurting Republicans in critical battleground states and risks throwing the Senate to Democrats, trade and political experts told The Post.
But the White House says the president has a “mandate” to keep the pressure on, even as polls in Michigan, Ohio and Maine point to angry voters already worried about high prices.
“One has to ask the US administration if they are trying to lose the midterms,” fumed Andrew Hale, a trade expert at the former Vice President Mike Pence-affiliated Advancing American Freedom group.
Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47, and Democrats need to flip just four seats Nov. 3 to take the majority.
Canada is America’s No. 2 trading partner, and the retaliatory tariffs are inflicting the most pain in states with close economic ties to their northern neighbor — several of which happen to be most in play for deciding Senate control.
Michigan alone, which features a premiere contest between lefty anti-Israel public health expert Dr. Abdul El-Sayed and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), has $30 billion in exports to Canada.
The state’s auto industry is closely intertwined with the Canadian supply chain, in an arrangement dating back to the Cold War. El-Sayed holds a 2-percentage point lead in the RealClearPolitics average.
In Ohio, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) has opened up a narrow lead over Sen. John Husted (R-Ohio), has $17.5 billion in exports to the Great White North. He has already been running ads on the rising price of fertilizer and other inflationary effects on farmers.
Both states feature heavily in cross-border auto industry, with parts criss-crossing the border multiple times. In 2025, the US exported $30 billion in auto parts to Canada, and imported $20 billion, according to the Center for Automotive Research.
In Maine, which has about $6 billion in annual trade with Canada, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is trying to hang on to a seat she has held for 29 years against a challenge by Democrat former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who led Collins 48 to 45 in the latest CNN poll.
“I never thought the Senate was in play until he started these trade wars,” said Hale, who said Democrats were on the move despite having radical socialist-leaning “candidates who are so unpalatable and so toxic.”
Trump in July slapped 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, and Canada responded with its own tariffs on an array of US products, saying Canada has been “ripping off” the US for years. After Trump last week threatened to tariff Canadian Bombardier jets in the latest escalation, Republican senators in Kansas resisted
“I’m going to fight to keep Bombardier’s over 1,200 Kansas jobs. I’ve already taken that concern inside the Oval Office,” wrote Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), in an X post that signaled the potential for blowback a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in a century. The company has its US headquarters in Wichita.
Marshall faces mega-church pastor Adam Hamilton, who has narrowly trailed him in a state Trump won handily in 2024. Hamilton even led Marshall 44-43 in an August Global Strategy Group poll funded by Democrats.
“It’s a harder state than the core competitive states, but if this becomes a tsunami for Democrats, it’s one you can’t count it,” said Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report.
She said of the Canada trade war: “When I talk with Republicans they admit that this is an unforced error from Trump and one he is going to forge his own path on regardless of what any of his advisors will tell him.”
Data compiled by Scotiabank and Statistics Canada found that presidential battleground states Ohio and Pennsylvania are among those hit hardest hit by Canada’s retaliatory tariffs — to the tune of $2.3 billion and $1.8 billion, respectively.
The White House, just off a midterm convention in Dallas to rally the faithful amid historical and strong electoral headwinds, is standing firm.
“Canada was offered the most generous trade deal of any of America’s trading partners despite being overwhelmingly reliant on access to the American economy,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai.
“Canada rejected that deal to demand continued one-sided access to the American market with no reciprocity. President Trump was given a resounding Election Day mandate to put American workers, farmers, and businesses first, and the Administration will continue to deliver while lowering costs for everyday families.”
