Democrats are running up lopsided majorities of the early votes as Americans head to the polls and mail in their ballots, carving out a clear majority of the votes cast so far.
Of early and mail-in voters, 54% were Democrats, 30% Republicans and 16% independents or “other,” according to state election data compiled by TargetSmart and NBC News.
The early vote advantage carries over to the marquee Senate races, including several held in Republican-leaning states.
In Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is battling former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), the Democratic edge is 55-36%, based on voters’ registrations.
In Iowa, where Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) is in a tough race with Democrat Josh Turek, the edge from registered Democrats is 57-29%, with 14% from “other.”
In Maine, where Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins is trying to fend off Democrat Troy Jackson, the Democratic edge is 55-19%, with more than a quarter “other” vote ballots in.
None of the data show how people actually voted – just who showed up or sent in their ballot.
“We know the Democrats have the enthusiasm advantage,” said University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss.
But what remains to be seen is whether the early numbers point to a predicted overall wave of voters or merely “upper status voters who always vote anyway,” he added.
One way to explore that is to compare numbers to four years ago.
In Republican-leaning Nebraska, where Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts is battling independent Dan Osborne, the Democratic edge has expanded from then. It’s 45-38 now, compared to 44-41 at this point in voting in 2022.
Eighty-nine percent of Democrats who have voted in Nebraska also voted in 2022 and 2024, while 10% are new voters, according to the secretary of state.
For Republicans, 91% voted in the past but just 7% are new voters.
Virginia is seeing a flood of early turnout, with 519,000 ballots in compared to 260,000 by this point in 2022, with the total doubling in left-leaning Fairfax County.
In Texas, the which features a high-profile race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico (D-Texas) and AG Ken Paxton (R-Texas), Democratic edge is an overwhelming 62-32%.
Democrats historically tend to vote early or by mail, although President Trump has regularly blasted mail-voting in favor of in-person voting on Election Day, calling it “inherently corrupt.”
But this year, on campaign stops and online, he has been changing his message.
In a video last weekend, Trump told supporters from the Oval Office: “If your state has early voting, do not wait. Go out and vote. Vote early, vote by mail, or vote in person on Election Day, November 3rd, so we can defeat the radical left ‘Dumocrats’ in a midterm victory that is too big to rig.”
He also told voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”
