Every year it seems there’s something different at the BNP Paribas Open. An icon retires, a star returns, a rising star makes a run or another is looking to make history.
This year is more of the same, in that everything feels a little different than it did a year ago. But the storylines, once again, are pretty obvious at the start of this year’s Indian Wells tournament.
Looking at the men’s field, five storylines stand out. They will shape the narrative of the 2025 event, and will likely keep fans on their toes as the tournament unfolds from March 2-16 at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
Here’s what we see as the biggest storylines at this year’s tournament.
Carlos Alcaraz’s quest for the three-peat
Surely one of the bigger storylines is whether Spanish tennis star Carlos Alcaraz will win a third consecutive BNP Paribas Open title. The Indian Wells three-peat has only occurred twice previously, by Novak Djokovic (2014-16) and Roger Federer (2004-06). Djokovic was 28 when he did it and Federer was 24. Alcaraz is just 21.
With top-ranked Jannik Sinner suspended and Djokovic working his way back from a hamstring injury, Alcaraz has to be considered the clear favorite.
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Still, successfully running the gauntlet a third consecutive time is daunting. It won’t be easy, and time will tell if Alcaraz will cement his name in history at this iconic tournament.
Novak Djokovic’s return from injury
Djokovic is expected to return to Indian Wells again this year. He lost his first match at Indian Wells last March, after not playing at the event since 2019. So, it’s been a while since Djokovic has won even a match at the BNP Paribas Open.
How will he perform, coming back from the injury suffered at the Australian Open, when he’s played just a single match (Doha) since?
Don’t forget that Djokovic is an icon and has won five titles at Indian Wells, tied with Federer for most all-time. The Serbian tennis star, 37, knows how to win in the dry conditions of the desert and will surely be poised to make a run. But it’ll likely come down to whether his body will allow him.
Alexander Zverev’s pursuit of Indian Wells title
Alexander Zverev, 27, will be the top seed in the draw with Sinner out. How will the German handle the pressure of being the top seed at such a big tournament?
That’s an obvious storyline. There’s also another, and that is all about whether Zverev can make a run in the California desert. Though he’s reached the quarterfinals twice, including last year, Zverev has never reached the semifinals at Indian Wells. Maybe this is the year it happens.
There’s also a scenario where Zverev isn’t able to capitalize on what should be a relatively easy path to the semifinals, given his seeding. How he does with that should be something to watch.
Daniil Medvedev’s potential redemption
The Russian reached the finals each of the last two years at Indian Wells, only to fall to Alcaraz. To make consecutive finals, though, is impressive and one has to wonder if Medvedev feels as though he has some unfinished business here.
Medvedev, 29, enters Indian Wells ranked sixth. Without Sinner and with the uncertainty of Djokovic’s health and conditioning, Medvedev’s opportunity to reach the final again is quite favorable.
But Medvedev is just 6-4 this season and isn’t off to the start he had a year ago, when he won 14 of his first 17 matches. Maybe he starts a run at Indian Wells, where his game is ideal for the court conditions.
American men’s chances are strong
Taylor Fritz, the 2022 BNP Paribas Open champion, is ranked fourth in the world and Tommy Paul is ranked 10th. Ben Shelton (14), Frances Tiafoe (18) and Sebastian Korda (23) give the American men five players inside the top 25.
Last August, the Americans had five players inside the top 20 for the first time since 1997. So, the field of American men are as strong as they have been in some time, and this feels like a year that one or two of them will be in the semifinals.
Paul reached the semifinals here a year ago. Tiafoe reached the semis in 2023. This group is familiar with these hardcourts at Indian Wells, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see two of them match up in the finals. We’ll see.
Andrew John covers the BNP Paribas Open for The Desert Sun and the USA TODAY Network. Email him at [email protected]. Find him on Bluesky at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic top men’s Indian Wells storylines
