After more than a thousand days of war, there are signs Ukraine is running short of manpower. Russia is capitalizing, seizing territory faster this year than it’s done since 2022, and terrorizing Ukrainians with cheaply-produced glide bombs – old Soviet-era ammunition retrofitted with wings and GPS.
This past fall, we spoke with Colonel Maksym Balagura, a special forces commander in Ukraine’s State Border Guard, and asked if Russia’s use of glide bombs had changed the trajectory of the war.
“At the moment they’re the biggest threat,” he told us. “They’re sapping the motivation of our soldiers to win.”
Ukrainians fought back in August, with the biggest foreign incursion into Russian territory since World War II.
But in October we found the mood in Kyiv gloomy and anxious. Ukrainians told us they feared that if Donald Trump won the U.S. election, he’d stop the supply of weapons, and pressure Ukraine’s government into surrendering territory.
One woman, Halina, told us her husband was serving in the military, and hoped Americans wouldn’t abandon them.
I asked, “Are you worried that Donald Trump could cut off the supply of weapons to Ukraine?”
“Yes,” she replied. “For us, it’s a matter of survival.”
After the election, President Joe Biden finally gave Ukraine permission to hit Russia with American-supplied ATACMs – missiles with a range of close to 200 miles – perhaps an attempt to help Ukraine maximize its gains before Trump takes office.
Without a steady flow of U.S. weapons, Ukraine’s front line could collapse. It would hand Russian President Vladimir Putin a monumental victory. Throughout this grinding war of attrition, he’s been waiting for the West’s unity and resolve to fall apart.
Story produced by Mark Hudspeth. Editor: Ed Givnish.
