‘Anora’ is the favorite, but a potential spoiler lurks

Since the start of the millennium, there have been some especially strong Best Original Screenplay winners. It’s an especially eclectic list that ranges from Little Miss Sunshine (2007) to Juno (2008) to Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris (2012) to Spotlight (2016). The five most recent victors are Bong Joon-Ho and Han Jin-won for Parasite in 2020, Kenneth Branagh for Belfast in 2021, Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman in 2022, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once in 2023, and Arthur Harari and Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall last year.

This year’s group includes three writers also nominated for Best Director and whose movies also received Best Picture bids: Sean Baker for Anora, Brady Corbet (and partner Mona Fastvold) for The Brutalist, and Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. Also honored in the category are Previous Oscar nominee (for acting) Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain and Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David for September 5.

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Here is our breakdown of the race:

Frontrunner: Anora, by Sean Baker

Some filmmakers are so thoroughly involved in the process that they do everything but pick up the craft services snacks, and for all we know Baker did that, too. He’s personally nominated for four of Anora’s eight bids, including for directing, editing, and producing the Best Picture nominee. He’s also one of just two category nominees to also receive a WGA bid (Eisenberg is the other). Baker also racked up an impressive five nominations from BAFTA, casting among them.

No filmmaker this awards season has been as widely feted as Baker, who also has three noms for Critics Choice (including screenplay), two from the DGA, and a couple of Indie Spirit nominations. This is all in addition to winning the prestigious Palme d’Or at Cannes.

SEEQuadruple Oscar nominee Sean Baker thought ‘Anora’ would be too ‘divisive’ for awards

At the Oscars, Anora’s best shot is in screenplay, where the story of a Brooklyn sex worker who meets and impulsively marries the young son of a Russian oligarch checks off all of the boxes: charming, great storytelling, exceptional character development. Baker also has an inspiring personal narrative as a former opiate addict who pulled himself out of a haunting downward spiral to get clean and transform himself into a master craftsman. And in terms of Anora, he spent years crafting the film, telling NPR, “It took us almost 20 years to figure out what the plot would be.”

He added, “I don’t really ever flesh out my backstories just because my stories usually take place in the present, and I just want the audience to be in the present moment.” Mission accomplished for a movie that’s a supreme crowd-pleaser.

Potential Spoiler: The Brutalist, by Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold

The joke is that The Brutalist took $10 million to produce, seven years to make, and nearly as long to watch. But seriously, it’s an epic three hours and 35 minutes, or only nine minutes longer than Killers of the Flower Moon last year. Counting the nearly 15-minute intermission, Brutalist is only a few ticks under four hours. Does this make a difference to voters? Maybe, or maybe not. Flower Moon had the same number of nominations last year as The Brutalist tallied this year — 10 — and converted precisely zero of them to wins. On the other hand, Flower Moon‘s screenplay wasn’t even nominated.

SEE‘The Brutalist’ producers on helping Brady Corbet realize his epic vision: ‘This was just a dream scenario’

But let’s take a quick trip through Oscar history to look at whether a film’s length matters for the Best Original Screenplay. There has never been a movie as long as The Brutalist that has won in this category. The longest to date was Gandhi in 1983, which clocked in at a comparatively brisk three hours, 11 minutes. Over the past 20 years, nine of the winners in the category were under two hours, the longest being the two hours, 45 minutes for Quentin Tarantino‘s Django Unchained in 2013.

All that said, we can’t discount Brady Corbet and wife Mona Fastvold‘s script with its rich narrative structure and depth — and also because The Brutalist is a Best Picture favorite and could wind up with coattail wins for director, screenplay and below-the-line crafts categories. Corbet and Fastvold are also up for BAFTAs and Critics Choice. But the lack of a WGA bid is concerning and possibly a deal-breaker.

Underdog: The Substance, by Coralie Fargeat

The nominated script for Fargeat and her overachieving indie body-horror film should not be underestimated. She landed writing (and directing) noms with BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes, as well as the Oscars, and is also up for Best Feature at the Indie Spirits. And if you think it might be foolish picking a horror movie script to win for Original Screenplay, think again. William Peter Blatty took the statuette for The Exorcist in 1974. Ditto Jordan Peele for Get Out in 2018, and Bong Joon-Ho and Han Jin-won for Parasite (not a conventional scary movie, but a scary movie nonetheless) in 2020. And in adapted, Ted Tally took the trophy for The Silence of the Lambs back in 1992.

SEE‘The Substance’ and director Coralie Fargeat skyrocket in latest Gold Derby Oscar predictions

Also, as opposed to directing, Original Screenplay is a category where women have performed well over the past 30 years, winning either solo or as part of a team about one-fifth of the time. These include Callie Khouri (Thelma & Louise, 1992), Jane Campion (The Piano, 1994), Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation, 1994), Diablo Cody (Juno, 2008), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman, 2021), and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall, 2024). Over the same period, female scribes have also done well in Adapted Screenplay, where the winners have included Ruth Prawer Jhabvala (Howards End, 1993), Emma Thompson (Sense and Sensibility, 1996), Philippa Boyens and Fran Walsh (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, 2004), Diana Ossana (Brokeback Mountain, 2006), Sian Heder (CODA, 2022), and Sarah Polley (Women Talking, 2023).

But back to Fargeat. Her film tells the often visually graphic and horrifying story of Elisabeth Sparkle (played by Golden Globe winner Demi Moore), an aging celebrity who takes a black-market, cell-replacing drug that temporarily creates a younger, better version of herself — with unintended consequences. The Substance has resonated with audiences, taking in more than $76 million worldwide and spurring something of a cultural phenomenon. That was enough to generate five Oscar nominations. Will it be enough to win for Fargeat’s screenplay? Not likely, but never say never.

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