Sunday’s match between Arsenal and Chelsea figures to be one of the most pivotal points of the Premier League season.
Arsenal entered Matchweek 28 five points ahead of Manchester City in the standings, but it’s the Cityzens who control their own destiny with a game in hand and a tilt with the Gunners still to come.
Anything short of a win over Chelsea on Sunday would put Arsenal’s title hopes in serious jeopardy.
The oddsmakers have installed Arsenal as a -175 favorite for Sunday’s London Derby at the Emirates.
Chelsea vs. Arsenal odds, prediction
Arsenal’s season took a hard turn with a draw against last-place Wolverhampton on Feb. 18, but the Gunners responded with a masterclass against their bitter rivals, Tottenham Hotspur, last Sunday.
Beating Spurs on any given day is a big deal for the Gunners, but that victory was as important as any for Mikel Arteta’s side all season.
It quieted the noise around the club, which are looking to avoid finishing as runner-ups for the fourth season in a row.
But just because Arsenal embarrassed their neighbors on their own turf means they can breathe easy. Spurs have been abysmal in the league this season, and a much stiffer test awaits the Gunners on Sunday.
As always, it’s been an adventurous season for Chelsea.
The Blues, at times, have looked like world-beaters, but they’ve also endured their fair share of downward spirals, including drawing against Leeds and Burnley in their most recent matches.
That said, those results came on the heels of four straight victories, so it’s not like the Blues come into this match in woeful form.
And it’s also worth noting that Chelsea has been able to go toe to toe with the Premier League’s best this season. They drew Arsenal, 1-1, in their first meeting, and they’re just a few weeks removed from a draw against Manchester City. The Blues also defeated Liverpool earlier in the campaign.
Chelsea’s stylistic approach could also give Arsenal plenty of issues.
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While Mikel Arteta wants the Gunners to play a composed, pragmatic brand of soccer, the Blues seem just fine with throwing caution to the wind and engaging in high-event matches.
No team in the Premier League has created more expected goals than the Blues, who also lead the league in total expected goals (for + against) this season.
Given the price, the pressure on Arsenal, and the stylistic matchup, I like the value on Chelsea to pull out a huge victory in North London on Sunday.
The Play: Chelsea +475 (bet365 sportsbook)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
