Many Virginians head for the beach or the Blue Ridge for a summer break, but Gov. Glenn Youngkin is bound for Iowa and South Carolina.
And while Des Moines hosts the nation’s biggest skate park and Columbia, South Carolina, is proud of its Riverbanks Zoo & Garden, both states also happen to be early gatekeepers to the Republican Party’s 2028 nomination for president.
Not, Youngkin says, that that’s on his mind.
“I get a chance to see my very good friend Kim Reynolds,” Iowa’s governor, he said last week when asked about headlining the Iowa Republican Party’s Lincoln Dinner on July 17.
“I have some family there — my grandfather was from Iowa,” said Youngkin, a graduate of Norfolk Academy.
Youngkin said Iowans want to hear about Virginia’s efforts to bring down taxes and boost education — as well as the commonwealth’s environmental work, including progress on cleaning up the Chesapeake Bay.
“It’s humbling that people are so interested in what’s happening in Virginia,” he said.
South Carolina Republican Party chair Drew McKissick said the party invited Youngkin to its Silver Elephant fundraiser gala on Aug. 9 because what he called Youngkin’s “bold, conservative leadership” had inspired party members across the nation.
“He’s shown that strong principles and smart policy win elections,” McKissick told the South Carolina Daily Gazette.
Iowa’s caucuses — those wintertime election year sessions pitched as gatherings of neighbors — kick off the primary season. But when asked about 2028, the next presidential election, Youngkin said he’s thinking about 2025. Youngkin, who leaves office in January, has six months to put final touches on his legacy as governor.
“I am not one of those leaders who spend any time thinking about what’s next,” he said. “I’m focused on Virginia.”
But Iowa is first in the hearts of many a presidential hopeful — and if farmers there are hoping for “corn as high as an elephant’s eye” — as the song says in the musical “Oklahoma” — there’s a different kind of corn growing when Iowa politicos gather.
“It’s not high tourist season in Iowa, so there can only be one other reason for his travels there,” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.
“As we’ve seen over the last several cycles, it is never too early to start campaigning for the next presidential election, and Iowa is a great place to start,” John McGlennon, a political scientist at William & Mary, said in an email.
“Ever since 1976, when ‘Jimmy Who?’ (former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter) launched his successful Presidential bid by visiting small towns in Iowa and finishing second, behind uncommitted, in the Iowa caucuses, the state has been attracting Presidential wannabes.”
In the run-up to the 2028 caucuses, he said Iowans are likely to see a lot of candidates — potentially including Vice President J.D. Vance; Secretary of State Marco Rubio; Texas Sen. Ted Cruz; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
“At this stage, most potential candidates are testing the waters, but he has the advantage of having free time after January and no direct responsibility for government actions that might be unpopular.”
The straw poll at the Iowa Lincoln Dinner can have a big impact long before any campaigning starts, McGlennon said.
Virginia Democrats have long accused Youngkin of having his eyes on another prize. In 2023, as Youngkin sent 100 National Guard troops to the border to aid Texas, state Sen. Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax, posted on X: “Youngkin for President has officially jumped the shark.”
Virginia and New Jersey are the only states that elect governors the year after a presidential election, so Virginia governors often get extra focus as pundits look for clues to national political trends.
In 2021, Youngkin led a GOP sweep for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general — Republicans’ first statewide victories in Virginia since 2009. Not long after, Youngkin hit the trail outside Virginia, campaigning for Republican gubernatorial candidates in 15 other states. In state after state, Youngkin handed the hopeful one of his trademark red campaign vests. He said his “parents’ rights” stance, lower taxes and support for police were a path to GOP victory — even in states like Virginia that had been electing Democrats.
Youngkin’s own victory and that out-of-state campaigning led many pundits to speculate he was bidding for the 2024 presidential nomination. Ultimately, he chose not to, but analysts suspect he’s already looking at 2028.
In Des Moines, “Youngkin will be making a case for himself as MAGA with a softer edge,” McGlennon said. “He has his one victory in a Democratic-leaning state to recommend him, while at the same time pursuing the Trump agenda. He can argue that he comes across with a more moderate personality, while being a more authentic evangelical Christian. He has the connections to fundraise effectively.
“His candidacy may not be in the top tier at the moment, but since he is not in the Trump administration, he may appeal to Republicans who want a fresher, less polarizing face at the top of the party ticket. It may be a long shot, but could position him for VP or a Cabinet post in a future national GOP administration.”
In the long march to a party nomination, the lesser-known potential candidates need to start early in making trips to the front-loaded caucus and primary states, he said.
Olusoji Akomolafe, chair of the political science department at Norfolk State University, said there’s still much speculation about Youngkin’s ambitions, but “the signals have become increasingly difficult to ignore.”
The policy forums and donor retreats he’s attended “go well beyond the typical post-gubernatorial activity,” Akomolafe said.
“Iowa and South Carolina are just the beginning, and we should expect more of these in the coming months, or even weeks,” Akomolafe added. “His pattern of raising funds, engaging nationally, and using politically savvy messaging, especially outside Virginia, strongly suggests he’s preparing for a 2028 presidential run.”
But there are risks.
“The quest to build a recognizable brand this early carries the risk of looking too eager, especially for an incumbent who still has a big job to do,” Rozell said.
Virginia is known as the “mother of presidents” because eight of the 47 were born here, the most of any state. But no Virginia-born candidate has won the White House in more than a century.
A couple of recent Virginia governors have made longshot bids for president. Democrat Doug Wilder briefly sought his party’s 1992 nomination while in office. Republican Jim Gilmore sought the GOP nomination in 2008 and 2016, long after his term ended.
As for Youngkin, Ed Lynch, a political scientist at Hollins University, said that when political leaders, especially those who cannot run for reelection, visit Iowa and South Carolina, speculation about their future plans is inevitable.
“It seems that Glenn Youngkin has enjoyed his time as governor and may very well consider running for president,” Lynch said.
But he said Youngkin faces some big obstacles.
One is the rising influence and power of Vance in the Trump administration, Lynch said.
The other is closer to home.
“Youngkin is going to have to campaign very energetically to try to prevent a statewide sweep by the Democrats this year,” Lynch said. “To make the case for nationwide office, he’ll first have to show evidence that his own victory in Virginia was not a fluke.”
