AZFamily’s movie critic shares his 2025 Oscar picks

PHOENIX (AZFamily) — Oscar season is always a fun time.

While I’m definitely invested to an extent (as you can see below), I’m not the kind of person who gets all up in arms if my preferred favorite doesn’t win or isn’t even nominated.

The Oscars are a legitimate celebration of the cinematic arts, but for many of the voters, it all comes down to personal biases and politics at the end of the day, so there’s no reason to get all upset.

So, why not make the Oscars fun? Obviously, I’m passionate about certain movies and in my perfect world, everything I love would be taking home the gold statue. This isn’t about what I want to win, though. This is about what I think will win. I’m definitely not as confident in my choices this time compared to recent years, but here we go.

And to my fellow Arizona’s Family co-workers participating in my annual Oscar Pool who may be reading this right now, you better not cheat… because I’ll know.

NOTE: There is a small chance that I may have a change of opinion before Sunday, but for now, these are my official predictions.

Best Picture

Conclave

This is no doubt one of the toughest Best Picture nominees to choose, especially compared to previous years where we had Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All at Once winning all the big precursors and making their Oscar wins a surefire bet. Anora won the Producers Guild of America (PGA) award for Best Picture, a win that more often than not leads to that movie winning Best Picture at the Oscars.

However, that’s the only major Best Picture award Anora has received. The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez both took home the Golden Globe for Best Drama and Best Comedy/Musical respectively, so that puts them into the conversation. Emilia Pérez has been mired by controversies recently and The Brutalist might come off as too ambitious, or possibly pretentious, for its own good to some voters.

So, that’s why I’m going to end up going with Conclave winning Best Picture. Not only did it win the British Academy Film Award (BAFTA) for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay, but it also unexpectedly won Best Ensemble Cast at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards. It’s the safest and most accessible of the nominees, appealing to all sorts of demographics, even the non-religious who may normally have an aversion to this sort of subject matter. With the way Oscar voting works where the Best Picture winner must receive at least 50% of the vote, it would be fittingly and amusingly ironic for Conclave to take home the major prize.

What I Want to Win: The Substance

Best Directing

Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

The race for Best Directing is between Brady Corbet for The Brutalist and Sean Baker for Anora. Baker won the Directors Guild Award (DGA) for Anora, a win that often translates to a Best Directing Oscar, with some very rare exceptions. This definitely makes things look promising for Baker, but his path to victory isn’t certain, as Corbet won the BAFTA and Golden Globe directing awards. It’s a tough pick, but I’m giving the edge to Corbet only because The Brutalist was the more ambitious undertaking of the two. If you’re going to award the director who put the most blood, sweat, and tears into their work, then Corbet is the best option here.

Who I Want to Win: Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Adrien Brody has practically been the frontrunner for the Best Actor Oscar for almost an entire year now, so it was quite a shock when he lost the SAG award to Timotheé Chalamet the other night. While this could offer a surprising shakeup and undoubtedly makes Chalamet a likely contender, I think Brody will pull it off in the end because of his reputation in the industry, and because The Brutalist is looked at as a comeback role of sorts.

There’s also the ridiculous opinion some Academy voters hold that young stars like Chalamet will “eventually get their due”, so they end up voting for the more experienced actor. I disagree with this point of view, as the best performance is the best performance regardless of age, but I do see this holding Chalamet back from getting the Oscar. He’ll get the statue one day, though. If not this year, then sometime in the future, for sure.

Who I Want to Win: Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Demi Moore – The Substance

Similar to the Best Actor race, we have another veteran vs. newcomer competition with Demi Moore and Mikey Madison. Their wins for the major awards have kind of bounced back and forth, with Moore winning the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA), and recently the SAG award for The Substance, with Madison taking home the BAFTA and Independent Spirit awards for Anora. Madison has been getting lots of love for her breakout performance, but I think Moore has the edge. Not only is her performance also excellent, but it’s one that’s now defined her entire career like it’s all been leading to the role of Elisabeth Sparkle. The narrative is definitely in Moore’s corner.

Who I Want to Win: Demi Moore

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

This one is a no-brainer. Culkin has been absolutely dominating the Best Supporting Actor race, winning every major award like the SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Independent Spirit, and Golden Globe. Despite how terrific he is in A Real Pain, I still think it’s nonsense he’s nominated for a supporting role, considering he’s really a co-lead alongside Jesse Eisenberg. I would rather actual supporting performances get the award, like Guy Pearce or Clarence Maclin (who insultingly wasn’t even nominated) but alas, all favor is for Culkin and there’s no way he doesn’t take home the Oscar Sunday night.

Who I Want to Win: Guy Pearce – The Brutalist

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

Another no-brainer here. Just like Culkin, Zoe Saldaña has been sweeping the major awards for Best Supporting Actress (also, like Culkin, she’s a co-lead). She’s not just sweeping the major awards, but also sweeping away these major controversies Emilia Pérez has been drumming up the past couple of months, which seemed like it would put her campaign in jeopardy. Unlike others involved in the film, Saldaña has been able to weather the storm and keep the momentum and it seems like nothing will stop her.

Who I Want to Win: Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (I would have picked Ariana Grande for Wicked, but again, co-lead)

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg

The Writers Guild of America (WGA) awards haven’t happened yet, so it makes picking the Best Screenplay winners a bit tricky. Anora and The Substance seem like solid contenders here, but Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain won the BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay. Along with the critical acclaim and industry love A Real Pain seems to be getting, I could see Eisenberg squeaking by with this one. His screenplay is also part of the reason why Culkin will be winning his award, so awarding both of them would be a fun 1-2 punch for A Real Pain.

What I Want to Win: The Substance – Coralie Fargeat

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Conclave – Peter Straughan

Again, this would be a much safer bet if the WGA awards already happened, but Conclave won the BAFTA for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes, where original and adapted screenplays aren’t separated by category. Nickel Boys may be a dark horse that comes to take the award, but the odds seem to be in favor of Conclave.

What I Want to Win: Sing Sing – Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley; story by Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin (GIVE HIM AN OSCAR!!!), and John “Divine G” Whitfield

Best Animated Feature Film

Flow

For practically all of 2024, we were all saying that the Best Animated Feature Film Oscar would be between Inside Out 2 and The Wild Robot. Pretty much nobody saw Flow coming, but it made a huge splash at the Cannes Film Festival and continued to gain momentum from there, winning the Golden Globe. While I still slightly prefer The Wild Robot, which won the BAFTA for Best Animated Film, Flow is a beautiful film that’s more than deserving of the award. It’s not just unique but also feels like “The Little Movie That Could”, being a small-budget film coming from Latvia all the way to the Academy Awards, and you know what? The Academy loves stuff like that.

What I Want to Win: The Wild Robot

Best International Feature Film

I’m Still Here (Brazil)

Normally Best International Feature Film is the easiest winner to pick because you just go with the one that’s nominated for Best Picture. There are TWO International films in this year’s Best Picture race, though! The nomination for Emilia Pérez was a given, but I’m Still Here surprised everybody when it snuck into the Best Picture conversation.

Ever since then, Emilia Pérez has been hit with controversy after controversy courtesy of ignorant and prejudiced comments from writer-director Jacques Audiard and lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón. I still think Zoe Saldaña and the song “El Mal” will remain unscathed, but the endless scandals may (thankfully) do it in.

Maybe it’s just my bias against Emilia Pérez talking, but one thing people in the Academy have been pretty weary of the past few years is optics, so I can see all of this rubbing voters the wrong way and making them not want to reward a film that could paint them in a negative light. I’m Still Here isn’t just a far better and more deserving film, but it also tells an important historical story that calls to light modern-day issues many people are facing or could face in the future.

What I Want to Win: I’m Still Here

Best Documentary Feature Film

No Other Land

This category would be a tough one if Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story were nominated for an Oscar, but it wasn’t, so it seems like the logical choice is No Other Land. When you consider it’s about the Israel-Palestine conflict produced by activists of both Israeli and Palestinian origin, the emotional appeal to the Academy voters seems quite universal. It also won the top prize at the International Documentary Association (IDA) Awards, therefore I predict No Other Land will win on Sunday night.

Best Documentary Short Film

The Only Girl in the Orchestra

This is always the most difficult category of them all. It’s usually just going with your gut because there’s not as much data to go off. Instruments of a Beating Heart did win the IDA award for Best Short Documentary, but when it comes to short films and documentaries, subject matter is king. Thus, I’m giving my prediction to The Only Girl in the Orchestra, which tells the story of double bassist Orin O’Brien, a student of Leonard Bernstein who became the first woman in New York’s Philharmonic Orchestra. It’s like an Oscars Mad-lib!

Best Live Action Short Film

A Lien

A Lien is a terrific short film and the second best of the five live-action short nominees, but what will really give it the edge for Academy voters is the subject matter. It tells the story of an undocumented immigrant being arrested and separated from his family, mirroring much of what’s going on in the country right now. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent is another politically topical film showing how we shouldn’t let history repeat itself that could win this one, but A Lien pushes those emotional buttons far more assertively.

What I Want to Win: The Last Ranger

Best Animated Short Film

Wander to Wonder

Unless it’s a short made by Pixar or some other prominent filmmaker/studio, this Oscar usually goes to whichever film has the most unique animation style. All of these nominees had eye-catching animation in their own distinct ways but Wander to Wonder takes the cake. It’s impressively animated with the stop-motion effects and the characters and world they inhabit are uniquely charming and amusingly grotesque. Of these five nominees, it’s the only one that leaves you wanting more.

What I Want to Win: Wander to Wonder

Best Music (Original Score)

The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg

If Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ Golden Globe for Challengers led to an Oscar nomination, then this competition would seem neck and neck between them and Daniel Blumberg for The Brutalist. Well, Reznor and Ross were surprisingly ignored by the Academy, so when compared to the other nominees, Blumberg looks like he has this in the bag. Kris Bowers’ wonderful score for The Wild Robot seems like some decent competition, but Blumberg was instrumental in giving The Brutalist that old-school American epic vibe.

What I Want to Win: The Wild Robot – Kris Bowers

Best Music (Original Score)

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez – Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; lyrics by Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard

With artists like Lady Gaga or Billie Eilish being absent here, there’s no certain choice this year compared to before. “El Mal” won this award at the Golden Globes, and while Emilia Pérez has received a fair amount of backlash since then, I don’t see the momentum of “El Mal” slowing down. It’s not only the centerpiece of the film, but one of the scenes that guaranteed all the awards Saldaña would be winning.

The Academy could finally decide to give Diane Warren an Oscar after 15 nominations and 0 wins, but they already gave her an Honorary Award in 2022, so maybe they won’t feel the need to reward her song from The Six Triple Eight. Perhaps she’ll finally be a bride after all these years of being a bridesmaid, but “El Mal” still feels like it’ll be the winner, as morally reprehensible as it is.

What I Want to Win: “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing – Music and lyrics by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada

Best Sound

Dune: Part Two – Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, and Doug Hemphill

I still don’t understand how The Substance wasn’t even nominated for this award, as the sound was such a huge aspect of that movie, but with the nominees we have, Dune: Part Two has the best chances. The first part won the same award in 2022, and with a pretty weak group of nominees surrounding it, The Wild Robot being an exception, I don’t see why Part Two wouldn’t win it again.

What I Want to Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Production Design

Wicked – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

This award often goes to sci-fi and fantasy films, so it looks like the duel for the Oscar here will be between Dune: Part Two or Wicked. While the first Dune took home this award back in 2022, the fact that Part Two primarily takes place in the desert does make it sort of lack the grandeur this time around. When it comes to Wicked, the production design and sets are lavishly detailed and creatively realized, immediately transporting you into its whimsical world. There’s so much to look at and take in that it never gets old for nearly 3 hours. Wicked also beat Dune: Part Two for the Best Fantasy Feature Film at the Art Directors Guild (ADG) awards, which just might seal the deal.

What I Want to Win: Wicked

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist – Lol Crawley

I think the sheer fact of resurrecting VistaVision, a film format that hasn’t been used for a feature film in over 60 years, qualifies The Brutalist for this award, but you still need a quality cinematographer to pull it all off. Lol Crawley was more than up for the task of bringing Brady Corbet’s epic vision to the silver screen, with a plethora of sweeping landscape shots full of vibrant colors and gorgeous lighting. Jomo Fray won the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) award for Maria, but Crawley won the BAFTA for Best Cinematography, which feels like a broader indicator of how the Academy will vote.

What I Want to Win: Nosferatu – Jarin Blaschke

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Substance – Pierre-Oliver Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli

I don’t see how this award could go to anything but The Substance. The makeup effects in that film are beautifully disgusting, especially during the final minutes, where I still don’t want to go into much detail just in case somebody still hasn’t seen it. Thanks to the work of the makeup and hairstyling team, The Substance was able to truly become the body horror masterpiece that people have been losing their minds about.

What I Want to Win: The Substance

Best Costume Design

Wicked – Paul Tazewell

For this award, I normally like to go with whatever movie has the most old-timey costumes like corsets and such, which is definitely where Nosferatu comes into play. However, just like the production design, Paul Tazewell’s costume design also went a long way into bringing the world of Wicked to life, with every piece of clothing so immaculately crafted to perfectly match the characters’ personalities. He’s just one of the many factors at play that made the movie such a success it was.

What I Want to Win: Wicked

Best Film Editing

Conclave – Nick Emerson

The 2025 American Cinema Editors (ACE Eddie) Awards haven’t occurred yet, so again, this one is tough as we don’t know exactly how the editors in the industry are feeling. While I would go with Dávid Jancsó for making the 3-and-a-half-hour-long The Brutalist go by as quickly as it did, I know some others have disagreed and felt every minute of that runtime. On the other hand, I and some others felt every second of Anora, whereas others have praised Sean Baker’s editing there.

Jancsó and Baker both have a decent chance, but I’m going to go with Nick Emerson for Conclave. It’s a tight 2 hours of precise editing, moving the proceedings along at a brisk and suspenseful pace. Conclave could have easily been dull and tedious in the wrong hands, but Emerson’s editing played a large part in making it so engaging.

What I Want to Win: The Brutalist – Dávid Jancsó

Best Visual Effects

Dune: Part Two – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer

Many people might be pointing to Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes to win this one and I wouldn’t really blame them. Those apes sure do look real, don’t they? It did win the top award at the Visual Effects Society (VES), which seems like a good omen, but did you know that none of the previous modern Apes films won the Oscar for Best Visual Effects? Shocking, I know.

So, I feel history will be repeating itself here, with the team for Dune: Part Two taking home the Oscar, just like the first one did 3 years ago. The CG motion capture effects in Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes are undoubtedly jaw-dropping, but Dune: Part Two feels like more of a “complete package”, so to speak. It’s a universe you’re completely transported to.

What I Want to Win: Alien: Romulus – Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin, and Shane Mahan

See a spelling or grammatical error in our story? Please click here to report it.

Do you have a photo or video of a breaking news story? Send it to us here with a brief description.

Copyright 2025 KTVK/KPHO. All rights reserved.