On election eve, Arlene Battishill, a retired history professor and political analyst known as “Dr. Arlene Unfiltered” to her social media followers, picked up a bottle of champagne, confident in the data across different states that showed a potential Kamala Harris win.
But a different narrative had emerged on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform founded in 2020, built on blockchain technology and banned in the U.S. It had consistently shown Trump leading since his September debate with Harris, and it ultimately proved more accurate than conventional polling methods that showed the race in a dead heat.
“This is the third consecutive presidential election in which [Donald] Trump was underestimated by polls,” said Harry Crane, a professor of statistics at Rutgers University. “The betting markets were spot on in this cycle, despite attacks from the mainstream media and pollsters, both of which were wrong in their analysis.”
The results, supporters say, bolster the case for prediction markets as they become more mainstream and seek to expand election betting in the U.S.
Polymarket’s 26-year-old CEO, Shayne Coplan, celebrated on CNBC’s Squawk Box after the election, calling it an “inflection point in news and politics.” Polymarket “was a good two, three hours ahead of the media,” Coplan said. “If you were just watching TV, you’d think it’s neck and neck.”
But “Dr. Arlene,” in a Q&A session with her followers, predicted that “a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money” on the platforms.
“People are going to get slaughtered financially. It’s the most irresponsible thing to be betting on our democracy,” she said.
Launched in 2020, Polymarket secured a $70 million funding round in May 2024 led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin. Major media outlets like CNBC and The Economist now regularly cite its predictions. Bettors put billions of dollars on the presidential race before Election Day.
Coplan told CNBC he received election-night calls from Mar-a-Lago, where the Trump campaign was tracking his victory on Polymarket. “It was surreal,” Coplan said.
Days later, the FBI raided Coplan’s New York City home and seized his electronics — part of an investigation into Polymarket allegedly accepting trades from U.S.-based users, Bloomberg reported. Coplan suggested the raid was politically motivated, posting on X: “It’s discouraging that the current administration would seek a last-ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”
