Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton’s uphill battle to beat Democrat Xavier Becerra in liberal-leaning California is resonating in a key, populous Southern California county.
A new poll by the University of California, Irvine taken June 9 to 12 showed Orange County voters giving Hilton 47% of the vote share, above Becerra’s 44%.
The same poll also showed that Hilton has more support among his base of Orange County Republicans, at 94%, compared to the 82% of Democrats supporting Becerra there.
“We have moved ahead of Becerra in California’s 3rd largest county,” Hilton said Saturday regarding the poll. “Millions of Californians are saying: Enough Is Enough! Let’s Fix California!”
Orange County was historically a reliable Republican stronghold, but over the past decade has shifted dramatically to claim more Democrat voter registrations than GOP ones.
Even then, Republican candidates have been able to hold office in the area due to the county’s “purple” reputation from a rise in independent voters. Nearly a third of county voters are not affiliated with a political party.
According to the new poll, 46% of Orange County independents picked Becerra over 38% for Hilton — but the Republican’s draw has been enough to put him ahead overall.
Part of Hilton’s allure could be due to the fact that he is not as “extreme” as Republicans like Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who lost in the gubernatorial primary, poll director Jon Gould told The Orange County Register.
“As potential candidates go, Hilton kind of presents himself like we may have seen in the past with some of the more moderately conservative Republicans,” Gould said.
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Recent efforts by Hilton to navigate President Donald Trump — who endorsed him but is generally unpopular among Californians — may help, Gould added. For example, Hilton recently took out a full page ad asking “Can you be anti-Trump but still vote for me?”
The Hilton campaign has made clear it’s proud of Trump’s endorsement, but much of his messaging has been squarely focused on people’s dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Regardless, Becerra is still polling at a huge advantage statewide.
A survey from the Public Policy Institute of California released mid-July found Becerra leading Hilton by 25 percentage points, with 61% of likely voters backing the former US health secretary compared to 36% for Hilton.
Election Day is Nov. 3, with mail ballots going out by Oct. 5.
