The NBA’s new two-day draft begins Wednesday with the reveal of the first round.
Though the No. 1 pick is still somewhat up in the air, much of the intrigue with this draft has to do with the selection of guard Bronny James.
The son of Lebron James, Bronny had a difficult freshman season at USC after a cardiac arrest in July led to a procedure to address a congenital heart defect.
Bronny didn’t debut for USC until Dec. 10, and in the 25 games he played, he averaged just 4.8 points on 36.6 percent shooting and 26.7% from 3-point range.
For most players, that profile would lead to a second collegiate season before declaring for the draft.
Nevertheless, his reputation as LeBron’s son certainly adds some cache to his draft prospects.
That’s particularly true with the possibility that LeBron could follow Bronny to whichever team drafts him.
So where will Bronny James land in the draft?
Let’s break it down and make a couple of betting recommendations.
Destined to join LeBron in Los Angeles?
The Lakers are listed as the favorite to draft Bronny at +160 on BetMGM.
According to John Ewing, who handles data and public relations, 32% of the handle is on the Lakers to draft Bronny.
The Lakers are priced even lower at +135 on FanDuel.
In a recent mock draft published on ESPN, Bronny went to the Lakers in the second round (55th overall).
Other teams have maintained interest in scouting James in a different context than his time at USC but have been unable to do so.
Agent Rich Paul is on record as saying he won’t do a two-way deal, which is very restrictive for rookie players.
Bronny would be limited to 50 games on an NBA team’s active list, spending the rest of the time in the G League, and his salary would be half the rookie minimum.
And the notion that LeBron has to play with his son is overblown, according to Paul, who told ESPN that it’s not guaranteed Lebron will re-sign with the Lakers if they draft his son at 55.
“If that was the case, I would force them to take him at 17,” Paul said. “We don’t need leverage.”
Interested teams: Suns, Timberwolves, Raptors, Mavericks
The Lakers and Suns are the only teams that have hosted Bronny for a workout.
Phoenix holds the No. 22 overall pick.
On FanDuel, it’s listed as the second favorite to draft Bronny at +550.
The Timberwolves, Raptors, and Mavericks (all +750) are tied for the next spot on the odds board.
Minnesota holds the Nos. 27 and 37 picks, Toronto has 19 and 31, and Dallas’ only selection is the last pick of the draft, No. 58 overall.
Betting on the NBA?
Paul told ESPN that Mavericks GM Nico Harrison is “like an uncle to Bronny,” and Dallas would take him at No. 58 and give him a guaranteed contract if the Lakers don’t draft him at No. 55.
Paul also said Raptors president Masai Ujiri loves Bronny and could take him at 31 without a personal workout.
Betting recommendations
We’ve seen significant movement in Bronny’s draft odds, which have dropped from Over/Under 54.5 to 40.5 on FanDuel.
Reading the tea leaves, the Raptors at No. 31 and Timberwolves at No. 37 are the two landing spots for Bronny to hit the Under on that draft-position prop.
Still, I’m recommending taking Over 40.5.
If you’re looking to place a bet on a specific team, I don’t mind the idea of a flier on the Mavericks at +750.
There’s no guarantee the Lakers will actually take him at No. 55 if he’s available, and Paul’s relationship with Dallas’ front office could go a long way.
