California voters’ deep rift on wealth tax exposed, voter ID heads for troubled waters: new poll

California remains a state divided on two controversial measures to be decided by voters in November.

Prop 40, the one-time billionaire tax, got 48% support in the poll compared to 41% who opposed. About 11% are undecided, according to a UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times poll released Friday.

“It’s got an early lead, but it’s not a very large lead, and it’s not a majority,” poll director Mark DiCamillo told the Times. “Usually, for ballot propositions, you want the yes side to be above 50%, and that’s not where it is right now.”

The proposed tax has split Democrats, with many labor groups backing it as a way to offshore federal health cuts but prominent figures like Gov. Gavin Newsom worrying it will destroy the state’s economy.

It’s especially important for Prop 40 to garner as many “yes” votes it can as billionaires like Sergey Brin have poured money into competing ballot initiatives that may override it. Typically, the initiative that gets the most votes is the one that goes into effect.

“There’s going to be a lot of campaigning, apparently on the no side especially. So we’ll see,” DiCamillo said on the changing dynamics. “But you know, I think it’s confusing to voters in some ways.”

According to the poll, the billionaire tax is seeing stronger support from younger Californians. Minorities, women and lower-income voters were also more likely to back it than white voters, men and those who earn at least $200,000 annually.

Meanwhile, Prop 39, the initiative that would require strong identification rules has just 42% support, with over half of would-be voters opposing 39.

The divide among Prop 39 is more clearly partisan, with 80% of Democrats opposing it and 90% of Republicans supporting it. However, unaffiliated voters were not in favor by a 54% to 36% margin.

“It’s a very traditional Democrat versus Republican split,” said DiCamillo, who expected not to see major shifts in the numbers.

State Republicans are leading the push for Prop 39 and claim most Californians do think voter ID requirements are common sense. But they cried foul on a description rewrite by state Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, that they said framed the measure more negatively.

When supporters gathered more than 1.3 million signatures to qualify Prop. 39 for the November ballot, its title said the measure “establishes additional voter identification and citizenship verification requirements.” Bonta’s office changed the language to say: “Prohibits citizens from voting unless they present government-issued identification.”

Supporters sued Bonta but lost in court.

“California politicians know that a supermajority of California voters support Prop 39’s bipartisan solution for Voter ID — so now they are corruptly trying to rig the election by putting a biased and dishonest title on this common-sense measure,” Assemblymember Carl DeMaio (R), the chief backer of the measure, said in a statement.

The Berkeley poll surveyed 4,207 California registered voters online from August 3 to 9. It has a margin of error of about 2.5 percentage points.

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