Allan Lichtman, the presidential election prognosticator who has successfully predicted the last nine out of 10 White House races, has made his preliminary projection for the November contest: Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to win, he said Friday.
Lichtman said his final prediction for the White House contest will come in August after the Democratic National Convention, but as of Friday, Harris appears to be the winner based on the formula he uses to forecast the election outcome.
That formula, his 13 Keys to the White House, was developed by Lichtman and renowned mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. Since then, it has been used to predict the outcome of the United States presidential contests with a high success rate.
Lichtman uses his 13 keys, or criteria, to judge the party that controls the White House’s ability to maintain control in an election year. If the White House party is considered to be a success in eight or more of the “keys,” then the incumbent party is expected to win. If the incumbent party is viewed as a failure in six or more of the criteria, or “keys,” the challenger is expected to win.
Lichtman broke down his rating in a recent video podcast. Here’s a summary of his preliminary determination:
What “keys” are Harris winning?
Harris, so far, has won eight of the 13 keys. Those include:
- Key 2 – No primary contest: Was there a significant challenger or contest to determine the nominee for the incumbent party? No. After President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday, he endorsed Harris and effectively cleared the field for her to become the presumptive nominee. No significant challengers have arisen from within the party.
- Key 4 – No third party: Third parties historically count against the White House party. “They’re a sign of discontent with the way the nation is being governed,” Lichtman said. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would need to achieve 5% of the vote to turn this key, and Lichtman says his polling ahead of November would need to stabilize at 10%. Lichtman said it’s possible but unlikely that RFK Jr. could achieve those percentages.
- Key 5 – Strong short-term economy: No recession has been declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research so far in the election year.
- Key 6 – Strong long-term economy: Real economic growth in the term exceeds that of the previous two terms. “Real” economic growth means growth that has been adjusted for inflation, Lichtman said. “The long-term growth under Joe Biden has been vastly greater than the average of the previous two terms,” he said.
- Key 7 – Major policy change: A significant change from the previous administration or a truly historic policy change like the New Deal. “Clearly, policy under Joe Biden in virtually every realm has been fundamentally different from that of the previous administration of Donald Trump,” Lichtman said.
- Key 8 – No social unrest: “It can’t be sporadic protests like we saw this spring on some college campuses,” Lichtman said. “It has to be massive protests or unrest like we saw in the 1960s or during the Black Lives Matter movement when millions of people were out in the streets,” Lichtman said this key could turn if large forms of social unrest bubble up ahead of or during the Democratic National Convention.
- Key 9 – No scandal: Must be some corruption directly involving the president with bipartisan recognition of the scandal as corruption, akin to Watergate.
- Key 13 – Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging candidate, former President Donald Trump, is not appealing to voters across party lines.
What “keys” are Harris losing?
- Key 1 – Midterm gains: The party holding the White House wins that key only if they held more U.S. House seats following the 2022 midterm election than they did in the 2018 midterm election.
- Key 3 – Incumbent seeking re-election: A sitting Vice President is not the presidential incumbent. If Biden were to exit office before November, effectively making Harris the president and, therefore, the incumbent, she would win this key, Lichtman said.
- Key 10 – No foreign/military failure: Lichtman noted the lack of resolution in the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine as the reason why the Democrats lose this key.
- Key 11 – Major foreign/military success: Same as the tenth key, the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine are why Democrats lose this key. The key could be turned if the U.S. were to successfully broker a deal for a ceasefire and hostage release between Israel and Hamas, Lichtman said.
- Key 12 – Charismatic incumbent: The candidate who is a member of the incumbent party must be appealing to voters across party lines, like former President Franklin Roosevelt.
