In terms of global elections, 2024 is a tough act to follow: It was a record-breaking voting bonanza, jam-packed with contests in major economies, including India, Mexico, Taiwan, and the United States.
This year is quieter, but it is by no means insignificant. Following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election last November, governments around the world are scrambling to reorient their politics. In some countries scheduled to hold votes in 2025, the specter of the president-elect’s foreign policy has spawned domestic turmoil, too.
In Berlin and Ottawa, existing cabinet disputes spiraled out of control after Trump’s win, leaving German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as de facto lame ducks. Another key U.S. ally, Japan, has had a minority government since last fall.
Meanwhile, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese put himself in Elon Musk’s crosshairs with a social media ban for children under 16—just as the tech billionaire is poised for influence in the White House. And Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has said he is “very concerned” about escalating U.S.-China competition and protectionism.
Progressive leaders such as Scholz, Trudeau, and Albanese might rightly worry that the global resurgence of right-wing populism could threaten their holds on power this year; all three leaders are polling behind their center-right or right-wing rivals. Add to that list Chilean President Gabriel Boric, who is ineligible for reelection and likely to have a conservative successor.
Elsewhere, right-wing leaders are looking to the United States as a harbinger of success. The Czech Republic’s opposition leader called Trump’s win a “boost” to his surging movement; Poland’s Law and Justice party has long been close to the president-elect. Although conservative Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has not spoken publicly about Trump, he has taken a tough approach to crime and is keen to remain in Washington’s good graces for security assistance.
Campaigns in other countries will be more insular. Bolivia, Cameroon, and Tanzania have been led by the same political parties for decades; all have vast economic potential that has at times been dampened by domestic strife and political repression. But machinations between longtime leaders and opposition movements promise interesting races, nonetheless.
Some key votes may be declared later this year. If South Korea’s Constitutional Court decides to remove President Yoon Suk-yeol from office, the country will promptly hold a presidential election. Yoon was impeached in December after he declared martial law; the court is now conducting its proceedings, which could take months.
For now, here are 12 confirmed presidential and parliamentary elections to keep an eye on in 2025.
Ecuador | Feb. 9
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa arrives at Carondelet Palace in Quito, Ecuador, on Oct. 17, 2023. Franklin Jacome/Getty Images
President Daniel Noboa hopes to secure his first full term in Ecuador’s general election on Feb. 9. All 151 seats in the country’s National Assembly are also up for grabs.
The U.S.-educated son of Ecuador’s wealthiest man, Noboa came to office via a two-round snap election held in August and October 2023. The vote followed the resignation of former President Guillermo Lasso, who dissolved the legislature to avoid being impeached. Noboa was elected to finish Lasso’s term, which began in 2021.
Like Lasso, Noboa is conservative, and he has focused his presidency on combating violent crime. Ecuador has experienced rising insecurity and homicide rates as it has become a hot spot for cocaine trafficking in recent years. While on the campaign trail in 2023, one of Noboa’s opponents was assassinated; Ecuador’s attorney general later linked the killing to criminal gangs.
After a spate of attacks last January, Noboa declared Ecuador to be in an “internal armed conflict,” instituting a state of emergency and deploying troops to stabilize the country. Months later, voters approved a Noboa-backed referendum to tighten security measures. Despite the broad public support, legal experts and human rights activists worry that the measure could endanger due process and the rule of law.
Ecuador is also wrestling with post-pandemic economic devastation. With so much money devoted to fighting gangs, the government has even fewer resources to address its deficit. Noboa has courted the United States, the International Monetary Fund, and others for help. Last year, he secured more than $93 million in assistance from Washington, to be delivered over five years.
What’s more, Noboa announced that he would propose a constitutional amendment to reauthorize the presence of foreign military bases on Ecuadorian soil. Former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa disallowed such bases in 2008, forcing the United States to shutter an outpost on Ecuador’s Pacific coast.
Correa, accused of corruption by the U.S. government, is currently living in exile in Belgium, but he still wields influence over Ecuador’s politics. Luisa González, who served in Correa’s government from 2007 to 2017 and lost to Noboa in 2023, plans to run for president again this year.
Also on the ballot is Leonidas Iza, who heads Ecuador’s powerful Indigenous confederation. Controversial businessman Jan Topić is in the mix, too.
Noboa’s approval rating has fallen in recent months, but polls still show him on top ahead of next month’s election. He is trailed by González, Topić, and Iza. If no candidate wins at least 40 percent of the vote with at least a 10-point lead in the first round, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff on April 13. Legislators are elected via a mixed-method proportional system.
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Germany | Feb. 23
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addresses delegates in Berlin on Nov. 28, 2023. TOBIAS SCHWARZ/AFP/Getty Images
Germany was due to hold a federal parliamentary election in late 2025, at the end of legislators’ four-year terms, but the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party governing coalition last November triggered an early contest, set for Feb. 23.
Scholz succeeded longtime German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2021, after Germany’s most recent nationwide election. He soon set out to lead the federal government’s first-ever three-party coalition: a tumultuous union between his center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens.
The parties frequently sparred over matters including social welfare spending, defense and climate policy, and Germany’s longtime aversion to debt. The infighting led to low approval ratings for the government and frequent demands for fresh elections.
Last November, Scholz hit a breaking point with FDP chief and then-Finance Minister Christian Lindner, whom he fired over a budget disagreement. The FDP exited the coalition, leaving Scholz with a minority government. Reporting has since unearthed long-standing FDP plans to tank Scholz’s coalition.
Despite public frustration with Scholz’s government, the coalition has guided Germany through a period of immense change. Months after Scholz took office, Russia invaded Ukraine, and Germany began to boost its defense spending. The country has also passed notable climate legislation and modernized its citizenship policy.
Still, Germany today faces a dull economy and a welfare state that is struggling to accommodate an aging population. Berlin is debating key geopolitical issues, too, including whether to decouple from China. And the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, once taboo, is surging after winning an election in the state of Thuringia last year.
Germany’s mainstream parties have nonetheless upheld their so-called firewall against the AfD on the state and national level. The question heading into next month’s vote is whether that can continue—and which combination of parties could form a coalition government to keep the AfD out of power.
Though Scholz lost a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, last December, he is still the SPD’s candidate for chancellor. The Greens have selected Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck. The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), currently in the opposition, is led by Friedrich Merz, who is more conservative than Merkel, the former CDU chancellor.
Current polling shows the CDU ahead, followed by the AfD, SPD, and Greens. It is unlikely that the FDP will surpass the 5 percent threshold needed to enter the Bundestag. The body’s 733 seats are filled via a mix of direct mandates and proportional party representation.
A potential spoiler is the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a breakaway faction of the Left party that is conservative on social issues and opposes support for Ukraine. In Brandenburg, the SPD and BSW recently formed a coalition to keep the AfD out of power; in Thuringia, the CDU, SPD, and BSW similarly came together to prevent the AfD from entering government. February’s election will be the second time that the BSW competes nationwide, following last year’s European Parliament election.
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Poland | by May 18
Polish President Andrzej Duda (left) and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk shake hands during their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, Poland, on Jan. 15, 2024. WOJTEK RADWANSKI/AFP/Getty Images
Poland will elect a new president by May 18, though a date for the contest has yet to be declared. President Andrzej Duda, first elected in 2015, is ineligible to run for another term.
The vote is largely expected to be a duel between the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which backs Duda, and the big-tent Civic Coalition (KO), led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The right-wing PiS was the standard-bearer of Polish politics for around a decade until the KO-led opposition managed to win the 2023 parliamentary elections. Tusk and Duda have butted heads since, over matters from budgetary priorities to access to contraception.
Poland’s president is not a strictly ceremonial role: The president governs alongside the prime minister and has the power to veto legislation and steer foreign policy. When Duda served alongside PiS prime ministers from 2015 to 2023, the Polish government encroached on the independence of the country’s judiciary and media, earning scorn from the European Union. PiS also steered hard-right social policies, demonizing LGBTQ+ people and restricting abortion rights.
Tusk has sought to course-correct, but doing so has been difficult amid opposition from Duda. Although both leaders were initially firm in their support for Ukraine and the trans-Atlantic defense alliance, some PiS politicians have begun to tire of unbridled support for Kyiv, particularly as many Ukrainian refugees have settled in Poland.
The official campaign doesn’t kick off until Jan. 8, but a few candidates have already declared their intention to run. The KO’s candidate is progressive Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who lost narrowly to Duda in the 2020 presidential election. PiS has tapped historian Karol Nawrocki to lead its ticket. A smattering of candidates representing smaller parties are also in the mix.
KO currently has a slight lead over PiS in national polls, and both are far ahead of all other parties—suggesting that the race will come down to a runoff between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. The election proceeds to a second round if no candidate earns a majority in the first. Duda reportedly dislikes Nawrocki, so the campaign for PiS’s future is bound to be interesting.
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Australia | expected in May
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks at Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, on May 15, 2024. Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images
Australia has not yet announced a date for its next federal election, but it is expected to be held in May. That is because the country must hold elections at least once every three years, and the last one took place in May 2022.
It’s too early to assess Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s chances of keeping his post. His center-left Labor Party currently trails the opposition center-right Liberal-National coalition slightly in polls, though not decisively enough to foreclose another Labor government. As smaller parties gain traction, a hung parliament or minority government is also a possibility.
Australian voters list health care, the economy, and housing access among their top concerns. Albanese has guided Australia through a period of change following the country’s strict COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. He patched up relations with China, which had deteriorated under Albanese’s conservative predecessor, and tightened Australia’s immigration system.
The prime minister faced a setback in 2023, when voters rejected the creation of an Indigenous federal advisory body in a referendum. Most recently, Albanese’s government moved to ban children under 16 from using social media, earning the ire of tech moguls such as Elon Musk.
When the election does happen, all 150 seats in Australia’s House of Representatives and 40 of 76 Senate seats will be on the line. Candidates are elected via a preferential ranked-choice voting system. Members of the House serve three-year terms, while senators serve for either three or six years.
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Japan | by July 27
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks to the media in Tokyo on Nov. 22, 2024. STR/JIJI Press/AFP/Getty Images
The House of Councillors is the less powerful of the Japanese parliament’s two chambers, but an election for the upper house—held by July 27—may have consequences for the future of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled the country for most of its postwar history.
The House of Councillors has 248 members, all of whom are directly elected and serve six-year terms. Half of the chamber’s seats are up for election every three years.
Last October, Japan held snap elections for the lower House of Representatives after Shigeru Ishiba succeeded Fumio Kishida as LDP chief and prime minister. Kishida left office amid a funding scandal and rising discontent with the party. The conservative LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, won a plurality of seats—but not enough for a majority.
Analysts are uncertain about what this may mean for Japan’s political efficacy and international standing. The House of Councillors cannot introduce legislation, but it can veto laws passed by the House of Representatives. To override such a veto, the lower house must come up with a two-thirds majority vote; for Ishiba and the LDP, that would be virtually impossible.
According to a November survey, 50 percent of Japanese disapprove of Ishiba’s cabinet, and only 31 percent support it. If Japan’s opposition parties are able to muster strong support for the House of Councillors election, they could stymie much of Ishiba’s agenda. The opposition camp is led by the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.
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Bolivia | Aug. 17
Former Bolivian President Evo Morales (left) and Bolivian President Luis Arce lead a pro-government march in Caracollo, heading to La Paz, on Nov. 23, 2021. AIZAR RALDES/AFP/Getty Images
Bolivia will hold a general election on Aug. 17, electing a president and both houses of parliament. But the real contest may come before the vote itself, as two men fight for control of Bolivia’s ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, which has governed the country for almost two decades.
President Luis Arce intends to seek another term in office as MAS’s nominee, but he faces a challenge from former President Evo Morales. The two former allies have become foes in recent years following a disputed presidential election in 2019.
Morales, who served as president from 2006 to 2019 and was Bolivia’s first Indigenous leader, sought a fourth term in 2019. At the time, the Bolivian Constitution allowed only two consecutive presidential terms; Morales’s third term was permitted because his first began prior to the adoption of the 2009 charter. But Morales wanted to abandon term limits entirely. In 2017, the country’s constitutional court controversially agreed to do so.
Morales won the 2019 vote, yet amid allegations of voter fraud—both from Bolivia’s opposition and international actors—protests ramped up, and Morales fled to Mexico. He and some observers still maintain that the former president faced a U.S.-backed coup attempt. An interim president took office in Morales’s absence before Arce won a redo of the election a year later.
The problems started once Morales returned to Bolivia in 2020 and sought to reclaim leadership of MAS. Supporters of Morales and Arce have clashed violently ahead of the upcoming election, which both politicians want to contest. In 2023, the constitutional court reinstated term limits, ruling that Morales cannot run again. Morales claims that Arce and the courts are conspiring to keep him out of power—and he seems set on retribution.
In the time since, there has been a dubious short-lived coup attempt against Arce, a hunger strike by Morales, and statutory rape allegations against Morales. Last November, Morales supporters’ demonstrations paralyzed much of the country.
The rift has overshadowed some of Arce’s accomplishments. Last year, Bolivia became a member of the South American customs union, Mercosur, and made a significant natural gas discovery. (It also has large lithium reserves.) Taken together, the developments suggest that the poor country could have a brighter future ahead.
Candidates have not yet registered for Bolivia’s presidential election. If no candidate wins at least 40 percent of the vote with at least a 10-point lead on Aug. 17, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff. Legislators are elected via a mix of proportional representation and direct mandates. The Senate has 36 seats; seven out of 130 seats in the Chamber of Deputies are reserved for Indigenous peoples.
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Cameroon | by October
Cameroonian President Paul Biya takes part in a news conference in Yaounde, Cameroon, on July 26, 2022. Stephane Lemouton/ABACAPRESS.COM
Longtime Cameroonian leader Paul Biya—the world’s oldest head of state—is expected to run again in the country’s presidential election, which media reports suggest will be held by October. He will be 92 years old at the time of the contest.
Biya and his Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement have been in power since 1982; they stand accused of rigging elections and repressing opposition parties. Biya’s government is backed by the United States, which sees Cameroon as a key partner in counterterrorism efforts. Biya has a clear path to reelection—even if it is not free or fair.
Biya’s biggest domestic challenge in the past decade has been Cameroon’s Anglophone crisis. Since 2017, the French-speaking government has fought Anglophone insurgents in a conflict that is a vestige of colonial rule. Around 80 percent of Cameroon’s population is French-speaking, while 20 percent is English-speaking. The crisis has displaced more than half a million people and killed thousands more.
Cameroon elects its president by a first-past-the-post system, where the candidate with the most votes wins—with or without a majority. Biya will likely be challenged by opposition leader Maurice Kamto, who heads the Cameroon Renaissance Movement and ran against Biya in 2018. The winner will serve a seven-year term.
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Canada | by Oct. 20
Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre (left) and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stand in the House of Commons in Ottawa, Ontario, on Oct. 3, 2023. Blair Gable/Reuters
Canadian law requires that the country hold parliamentary elections by Oct. 20. But if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gets his way, the contest will be delayed by a week so that it does not conflict with Diwali.
Although Trudeau has been in office for nearly a decade, his power has weakened. Since Canada’s last parliamentary elections in 2021, Trudeau’s Liberals have led a minority government dependent on the support of smaller parties. Trudeau is widely disliked by the public, with an approval rating of just 33 percent as of last September.
If Canada’s elections were held today, Trudeau would almost certainly cede power to Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. The Conservatives have twice as much support as the Liberals, according to a CBC News polling average. Forty-five percent of Canadians say Poilievre would make the best prime minister, in contrast to 26 percent for Trudeau.
The progressive New Democratic Party (NDP) is also just a few percentage points behind the Liberals. The NDP previously supported many of Trudeau’s policy priorities but withdrew its support in 2024; party leader Jagmeet Singh said Trudeau “will always cave to corporate greed” and that “Liberals have let people down.”
Many Canadians feel similarly: Last year, voters ranked economic issues such as the cost of living, inflation, and affordable housing among their top concerns, although economic pressures have eased in recent years. Some are also worried about immigration; in 2024, Trudeau tightened Canada’s previously generous immigration policy.
Now, Trudeau has Donald Trump to deal with, again. Last November, the U.S. president-elect threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on goods from Canada—and Trudeau flew to Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, in an attempt at damage control.
Some among Canada’s Liberals think Trudeau should step aside rather than suffer an embarrassing defeat. Last December, Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland—perhaps Trudeau’s closest confidante—resigned from his cabinet, condemning his “costly political gimmicks.”
This year, Canadians will elect all 343 members in the House of Commons. All seats represent single-member constituencies, where candidates are directly elected via a first-past-the-post system. This election will be the first since Canada’s 2021 census, which increased the number of seats in Parliament and redrew some districts.
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The Czech Republic | by October
Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala appears in Belgrade on Nov. 6, 2024. ANDREJ ISAKOVIC/AFP/Getty Images
The Czech Republic’s parliamentary elections this year will test the resilience of the country’s big-tent ruling coalition, which was forged to oust a right-wing party after the 2021 elections. The vote to choose all 200 members of the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of the Czech Parliament, will be held by October.
The Czech ruling coalition comprises a center-right alliance called Spolu and the regionalist Mayor and Independents party. The coalition is led by the conservative Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and Prime Minister Petr Fiala. Four years ago, Spolu narrowly defeated the right-wing ANO (“Yes”) party of then-Prime Minister Andrej Babis. In 2023, Babis ran for president—a more ceremonial role—but was defeated by a centrist candidate.
This year, Babis may be attempting to get his old job back—and according to polls, there is a good chance he could succeed. The Czech Republic’s moderate moment appears to be over: ANO won a plurality of votes in last July’s European Parliament elections. As of late last year, ANO had a more than 10-point lead over Spolu in national surveys.
Babis is a controversial figure. A billionaire tycoon who was named in the Pandora Papers, he regularly makes incendiary remarks about his opponents, has also questioned Prague’s commitments to NATO, and butted heads with the European Union. But his populist messaging has effectively tapped into many Czech citizens’ economic grievances.
It is unclear whether Babis, now 70 years old, would attempt to become prime minister again if ANO wins. Other contenders include the party’s deputy chairman, Karel Havlicek, who praised Trump’s victory as a “boost” to ANO.
The 200 members of the Chamber of Deputies are directly elected and serve four-year terms. The Senate held elections last year.
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Tanzania | by October
Samia Suluhu Hassan sits after her swearing-in ceremony as the country’s first female president in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on March 19, 2021.AFP via Getty Images
Tanzania will hold a general election by October to elect a new president as well as the country’s National Assembly. President Samia Suluhu Hassan has confirmed that she will seek another term.
If she wins, Samia would be the first woman to be elected president in Tanzania; she was vice president and assumed the leadership role when John Magufuli died in 2021. Both governed as members of the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, which has been the dominant force in Tanzanian politics for six decades. Under Magufuli, the CCM crushed dissent.
Although Samia initially sought to correct Magufuli’s democratic backsliding through a program known as the “4Rs”—reconciliation, resilience, reforms, and rebuilding—her commitment to these aims has waned.
Last fall, the United Nations warned of the “ongoing and escalating pattern of human rights violations against opposition political party members, civil society organisations, journalists, Indigenous Peoples and human rights defenders” in Tanzania. Still, Samia has successfully courted foreign investors and boosted Tanzania’s economic growth.
Samia is expected to be challenged by opposition leader and democracy activist Tundu Lissu, whose Chadema party is growing in popularity. Lissu narrowly survived a 2017 assassination attempt and spent three years in exile before returning to Tanzania in 2020 to challenge Magufuli. He lost the race amid electoral violence and allegations of vote rigging.
Last September, Lissu and Chadema’s chairman were arrested. It is yet unclear if Lissu will be allowed to run this year. Tanzania’s president is elected by a simple majority vote and serves a five-year term. The 393 members of the National Assembly are chosen by a mix of direct mandates and proportional representation for women. The president also appoints 10 legislators.
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Singapore | by Nov. 23
Lawrence Wong, then Singapore’s deputy prime minister, delivers a speech in Paris on April 10, 2024. JULIEN DE ROSA/AFP/Getty Images
Singapore must hold a general parliamentary election by Nov. 23, per constitutional rules. The vote is not expected to be eventful: The conservative People’s Action Party (PAP), which has governed Singapore since independence, is once again forecasted to win. Singapore’s Parliament is unicameral, and its 104 members are elected to five-year terms via a mixed system.
Prime Minister Lawrence Wong took the reins from Lee Hsien Loong last spring. Lee had governed Singapore for two decades—and became a controversial figure in the process, especially by restricting the rights to assembly and free speech.
Although Singapore’s elections are free and fair, the PAP benefits from structural advantages that keep opposition parties out of the fray. The other two groups represented in Parliament are the social democratic Workers’ Party and center-left Progress Singapore Party. Support for the opposition has grown as the PAP has faced scandals related to corruption. Many Singaporeans are also frustrated by high costs of living.
Wong has attempted to wrest back support for the PAP by expanding social policies, including parental leave and public housing. On foreign policy, he has said he is “very concerned” about growing U.S.-China tensions and potential restrictions on trade from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
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Chile | by November
Chilean Republican leader José Antonio Kast mingles during a convention in Madrid on May 19, 2024. Alberto Gardin/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images
Chile will hold a general election by November, choosing a new president along with members of both houses of the National Congress. President Gabriel Boric is ineligible for reelection.
Even with him out, Boric’s left-wing Frente Amplio coalition is unlikely to win. The incumbent president, a former student activist and one of the world’s first millennial leaders, was elected in 2021 following years of mass protests over the legacy of Chile’s 1973-90 dictatorship.
But during his presidency, an attempt at a rewrite of the country’s dictatorship-era constitution flopped after voters considered it too progressive. Then came a right-wing backlash, prompting a conservative effort at a new charter that also failed. Now, Chile is back where it started—with the same constitution as before Boric took office. The president has lost support in the process; his approval rating stands at just over 30 percent, as of last August.
Although Boric’s attempts at progressive reforms have been unsuccessful due to gridlock, he has taken key steps to help Chile manage one of its key natural resources, releasing a national lithium strategy in 2023. He has also been a forceful critic of autocratic Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—a rarity on the Latin American left.
Although no candidates have so far declared their intent to run in this year’s presidential election, the front-runner appears to be conservative Evelyn Matthei, a former mayor of the district of Providencia. Matthei lost to former President Michelle Bachelet, a Socialist, in the 2013 presidential election. She is likely to represent the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, which performed well in regional elections last fall.
Also reportedly in the running is José Antonio Kast, a right-wing firebrand who lost to Boric in 2021 under the banner of the Republican Party. Who might lead Boric’s movement in the contest is unclear.
To win Chile’s presidency, a candidate must receive a majority of the vote. If no candidate wins in the first round of the election, it proceeds to a runoff. All 155 seats in Chile’s lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, and some of the Senate’s 50 seats will be up for grabs via direct election.
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