CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten on Friday declared that he disagrees “entirely” with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) after the GOP leader dismissed Democrats’ wins in key election races this week.
“I think that the house is on fire and he’s like the dog saying, ‘This is fine,’” said Enten in a segment with CNN’s Kate Bolduan.
Enten highlighted how Democrats outperformed their margins from the 2024 presidential election.
New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill (D) had a margin of +13 percentage points while Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger had a margin of +15 points, as of Friday morning.
This is a notable jump from last year, when former Vice President Kamala Harris had a margin of +6 points in each of the states.
“If we had, let’s say, an average eight-point shift across the board in all the different House seats from the 2024 prez result to then what happens in the 2026 House elections, you would be talking about a Democratic gain of about 20 seats, depending on redistricting,” Enten said.
“So when I see those results on Tuesday night, I see these giant — these huge shifts in the Democratic direction. I say, Republican leaders, wake the heck up and have some of what I’m having because this is a major warning sign.”
Enten — when asked by Bolduan if his findings track with other elections this year — emphasized that Democratic candidates in House special elections outran Harris on all five occasions, even when they lost their races.
He went on to note that the party that outperformed in special elections has gone on to win the House all five out of five times since the 2005-06 election cycle.
In the last 90 years, he added, Democrats have won the House five out of five times in the year after sweeping the New York City mayoral race as well as the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races.
“If I’m Steve Scalise, I am not dismissing these results. I’m going to try and get myself some fire insurance,” he said.
