Former Vice President Kamala Harris has an early lead among potential candidates in California’s gubernatorial race—but many voters are still undecided about who they’ll be voting in the election, according to a new poll.
Newsweek reached out to Harris’ team for comment via their press contact form.
Why It Matters
Harris is reportedly eyeing a political comeback after her loss in the 2024 presidential election against President Donald Trump last November. While she has been floated as a potential presidential candidate, speculation is also abound that she could run for governor in her home state of California next year.
Her decision will be critical for each of those races, as polls suggest she could be a leading candidate in either election. Still, not all Democrats are on board with Harris, as many believe she lost a winnable race against Trump last year.
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What To Know
California voters are leaning toward supporting Harris if she runs for governor next year, but may in the state are considering supporting other candidates, according to the new University of California Irvine poll released Wednesday.
Harris led the pack with 24 percent support, followed by businessman Rick Caruso, a moderate Democrat who ran for Los Angeles mayor in 2022 and has not said for sure he plans to run. Nine percent said they plan to vote for Caruso. Former Representative Katie Porter, a progressive who represented an Orange County swing district in Congress, placed third with six percent.
Republican Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff and coroner, and former Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa each received support from four percent of voters. Former President Joe Biden’s Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra and Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis, both Democrats, and Republican Kyle Langford, had two percent support in the poll.
Forty percent said they weren’t sure who they would support.
Jon Gould, dean of UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology and director of the UCI-OC Poll, told Newsweek it is “interesting to see a candidate who isn’t announced that much farther up on her rivals.”
“But, what’s curious is why she is preferred,” Gould said. “True, she has a +11 net favorability rating, but she is also much better known than any other candidate. Only 5 percent of the electorate doesn’t know her, whereas almost half of potential voters are unfamiliar with the next closest candidate. So, if she were to jump in, she would start as the prohibitive favorite, but there is plenty of room for others to successfully compete with her.”
If Harris jumps into the race, the field would likely narrow “pretty quickly,” he said. Her biggest challenge would be to turn “soft support” into a “firm backing,” as well as to explain why she wants to be the state’s governor.
If she decides not to run, the race would be “wide open,” and whoever would have the funds to define themselves to votes and become more widely known would have a “real opportunity,” Gould said.
The pollster conducted two separate surveys to collect this data. The first surveyed 2,143 California adults from May 27 to June 2, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The second surveyed 2,000 California adults from May 29 to June 4, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Harris hasn’t said for sure whether she is leaning toward running for governor or president—or some other option.
A recent poll conducted by Emerson College about potential candidates in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary found that former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg would have a lead over Harris, while 13 percent leaned toward Harris in the poll of 1,000 registered voters from June 24 to June 25, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A Morning Consult poll released in June showed Harris maintaining a stronger lead, however, with 34 percent saying they planned to support her. Seven percent said they would vote for Buttigieg, while 11 percent said they leaned toward California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Some candidates have already begun attacks against Harris. Villaraigosa in May accused Harris of being involved in a cover up of Biden’s health, stating that “those in power were intentionally complicit or told outright lies in a systematic cover-up to keep Joe Biden’s mental decline from the public.”
What People Are Saying
Kamala Harris, speaking about her plans earlier this year while visiting Los Angeles sites impacted by wildfires: “My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them…I am here and would be here regardless of the office I hold, because it is the right thing to do, which is to show up in your community and thank the folks who are on the ground.”
The University of California Irvine poll report reads: “A year ahead of the primary election, 40% of Californians are unsure of their choice for Governor. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is in the lead, having not yet announced whether she will run, but even if she secures just 24% support from potential voters, and only half of Democrats. That said, there is no other candidate within striking distance.”
What Happens Next
Harris said during a pre-Oscars party earlier this year she plans to make a decision about whether to run for governor by the end of the summer. The primary in California is set to be held on June 2, 2026. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Safe Democrat.
