There may be some recency bias at play, but it feels like an increasing number of primetime games on the NFL schedule look extremely uninspiring at first glance.
The “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Cowboys and Raiders feels like a prime example: two legacy franchises with rabid fanbases, who, for good reasons, have largely given up hope that their under .500 teams will right the ship.
That said, the Cowboys, who need to take a must-win posture for the rest of the season, are 3.5-point road favorites in what might be their most winnable game until Christmas Day.
Cowboys vs. Raiders odds, prediction
Both the Cowboys and Raiders should be well rested coming into this game, with more than a week off since they last saw the field.
The Raiders faced the Broncos on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 10, a game that was low-scoring on both sides. The Cowboys were upset by the Cardinals on “Monday Night Football” in Week 9, the second straight week we saw their offense fail to reach the heights that had become the norm for Dallas.
The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL by almost any metric, and the Raiders have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, so something has to give here.
Jerry Jones and Dallas made some upgrades at the trade deadline, adding former Jets defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, but their passing defense has been the more pressing issue.
Betting on the NFL?
Entering Week 11, they’ve allowed the second-most Net Air Yards per pass attempt (8.0) in the NFL. Teams have been able to carve them up with ease, and they’ve offered very little resistance.
Amazingly, the Cowboys have more passing touchdowns allowed (22) on defense this season than passes defended (19).
The Raiders have failed to reach double digits in points four times this season, ranking 31st in points per game (15.4), and are bottom three in total yards per game (272.7).
Quarterback Geno Smith would love nothing more than to see 11 star-clad helmets on defense to boost his confidence.
As bad as things have been for the Raiders, they’ve had some level of success passing against bottom-10 defenses.
Smith notched three passing touchdowns against the Commanders and four passing touchdowns against the Jaguars this season, two teams that are as bad at stopping opposing passing attacks as the Cowboys.
It has been a rough season for Smith, but I think this is a good buy-low spot for him. I like a small bet on the Over for Smith’s passing touchdown prop at 1.5. Let it rip, Geno.
The Play: Geno Smith Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-108, BetRivers)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
