Democrat Josh Weil is within five points of defeating Republican Randy Fine to flip National Security Advisor Mike Waltz’s old seat in the House of Representatives in next week’s special election, according to a new poll.
Newsweek reached out to the Fine and Weil campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The election in Florida’s 6th Congressional district shouldn’t be particularly competitive, as the solidly Republican seat voted for President Donald Trump by 30 points in the 2024 presidential race. But the GOP is growing increasingly nervous about its chances of holding on because of growing frustration with the Trump administration over issues including the firing of federal workers.
The Democrats, on the other hand, are doing well in special elections across the country. If they flip the seat, it would chip away at the razor-thin GOP majority in Congress and make it more difficult for Speaker Mike Johnson to pass key legislation on Trump’s agenda.
What to Know
A new survey from St. Pete Poll points to a competitive race. It polled 403 likely voters in the district from March 22 to March 25, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
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Fine held a narrow lead, receiving support from 48.3 percent of the vote compared to 44.2 percent of respondents who said they plan to vote for Weil.
Of those who have already voted, 51 percent went for Weil and 43.1 percent chose Fine, but 53.2 percent of those yet to vote plan on selecting Fine, and 38.4 percent plan want Weil, according to the poll.
Special elections often see low voter turnout and can yield some surprising results. On Tuesday, for instance, Democrats flipped a solidly conservative state senate seat in a Pennsylvania ballot.
The race for the 6th is one of two Florida Congressional special elections set for next Tuesday. The other is in Florida’s 1st Congressional District, to replace former Representative and unsuccessful U.S. attorney general pick Matt Gaetz.
The 6th district comprises all of Flagler and Putnam counties, as well as parts of Lake, Marion, St. Johns and Volusia counties. There were 273,387 registered Republicans and 142,347 registered Democrats in the district as of March 7, 2025, according to the data from the Florida Division of Elections.
A Democrat path to victory in the district would require them to either outpace Republicans in turnout or win over a substantial number of registered Republicans willing to break from the party line.
While Fine has a slight polling lead, he has been outraised by Weil, who has collected about $10 million between January 9 and March 12. Fine has managed barely a tenth of that, raising about $987,000 from November 26 to March 12, according to data from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC).
What People Are Saying
Weil, in a statement to Newsweek on Wednesday: “This race is neck and neck and the poll confirms what we are seeing on the ground. Voters are angry that prices are still high and that their money, their Social Security and Medicare benefits are being taken from them.”
Bryan Piligra, a Fine campaign spokesperson, previously told Newsweek: “The only thing that matters is making sure Republicans are united to defeat radical Democrats like Josh Weil who will stop at nothing to destroy President Trump. When Randy is victorious on April 1st it will be because of the strength of the Trump agenda and the faith the American people have in him. Randy is grateful for the President’s unwavering confidence in him. The voters of CD 6 know they can count on Randy to fight fiercely alongside President Trump to Make America Great Again.”
What Happens Next
The election is set to be held on April 1, 2025.
