Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski’s openness to potentially caucusing with Democrats or as a broader independent could sway power next year, as nearly three-dozen Senate seats will be up for grabs.
Why It Matters
Murkowski has been one of the more outspoken Republicans throughout the past decade, more prone than her colleagues to separate herself from President Donald Trump and some of his policies. She has criticized him on the Russia-Ukraine war, on aspects of his immigration policy, and on how federal government cuts were handled through Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
The current makeup of the Senate—53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with the Democrats—still favors the GOP, but that could shift between now and November 2026, when 33 of the chamber’s 100 seats will be contested for six-year terms.
What To Know
Murkowski is seemingly keeping a door open to potentially caucusing with Democrats moving forward, or at the very least in a more independent mode to avoid the current hardened partisan divide, according to an interview being released in full on Tuesday.
Galen Druke, host of the GD Politics podcast, asked a hypothetical question about Murkowski being open to caucusing outside of the GOP if Democrats were to pick up three Senate seats in next year’s elections, and if she had more opportunities to help her Alaskan constituents.
“There may be a possibility,” Murkowski said, later adding, “There is some openness to exploring something different than the status quo.”
Newsweek reached out to Murkowski’s office via email for comment.
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However, even with her criticisms of her own party and the general hardline partisanship in Washington, Murkowski doesn’t feel like the present state of the Democratic Party is any better.
“My problem with your hypothetical is that as challenged as I think we may be on the Republican side, I don’t see the Democrats being much better,” Murkowski told Druke. “And they’ve got not only their share of problems, but quite honestly, they’ve got some policies that I just inherently disagree with.”
Murkowski’s remarks have caught the eye of some oddsmakers who are already looking to the 2026 midterms.
BetOnline said the senator’s remarks “prompted a major odds shift” in the markets. As of 9 a.m. ET Monday, prior to Murkowski’s interview dropping, odds showed Republicans being favored to reclaim the Senate in 2026 at –700, or roughly an 87.5 percent probability.
However, by 4 p.m. ET on Monday, and following her comments, those odds decreased dramatically to –250, or approximately a 71.4 percent probability.
Even with midterm elections often benefiting the political party in the minority, Paul Krishnamurty, an oddsmaker with BetOnline, told Newsweek that it’s “a big ask” to expect Democrats to overwhelm their conservative opponents and win back the Senate.
“Were Democrats to hold their marginal seats, they would stand a good chance of winning Maine and North Carolina, and a plausible outside chance of a third state, most likely Iowa,” Krishnamurty said. “But even in that rosy scenario, a 50-50 tie would leave Republicans in control.
“However, if Murkowski were to flip sides and caucus with the Dems, the math changes to 52-48, and Senate control becomes a realistic target, rather than a longshot. That’s why the GOP is still favored in BetOnline’s latest projections, but much less of a favorite than before with this scenario unfolding.”
What People Are Saying
Senator Lisa Murkowski told Semafor on Monday: “Do I feel that within my Republican conference, I always feel like I’m right here in my political home? No. There’s sometimes directions and policies that I disagree with.”
Murkowski added that her philosophy and values “more closely align with” the GOP, not the Democratic Party.
“But having said that, it is not [accurate] that I allow a label to define me. And I think maybe this is what causes some frustration with people.”
What Happens Next
Along with 33 of the 100 Senate seats being contested in 2026, there will also be two special elections: one in Ohio to fill the remaining two years of Vice President JD Vance’s term, and one in Florida to fill the remaining two years of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s term.
