Democrats want to punish Trump in the 2026 midterms. Here are the five Senate seats most likely to flip

Congress is back in session after a week-long recess. During that time, Republicans and Democrats alike faced criticism during the town halls they held, with Republicans under fire for supporting proposed cuts to Medicaid and Elon Musk’s slashing of government spending while Democrats suffered backlash for voting for Donald Trump’s nominees and passing the stopgap spending bill earlier this month.

All of this has Democrats thinking they have a good chance at flipping some seats, potentially retaking the House of Representatives.

But Democrats face a rougher map in 2026 than they did even in 2024, given they have to defend multiple battleground seats, including in places they hadn’t expected due to retirements in Minnesota, New Hampshire and Michigan. Incumbent Democrats also risk pushback from their base and the potential for a revolt from primary challengers the way that the Tea Party did to the GOP in the 2010s.

Democrats only need to win five seats to take back the House of Representatives, entirely doable if Trump’s popularity continues to slide. Republicans currently have a 53-seat majority in the 100-seat Senate, meaning Democrats would need to flip four Senate seats to gain back the majority. However, most of the Republican-held seats – in states like Texas and Iowa – are out of Democratic reach. On top of that, they need to defend all of their own seats from Republican challenges.

That means it’s mathematically possible for the Democrats to flip the Senate as well in November 2026 – but seems unlikely.

Nonetheless, here is the list of Senate seats most likely to flip in the 2026 midterm election.

1. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina)

Thom Tillis is by far the Republican senator Democrats want to knock off most.

He’s largely won in nail-biter races in a state known for jump-ball races. He’s proven himself to be an adept dealmaker, working with everyone from Chris Murphy to Kyrsten Sinema on guns, infrastructure and same-sex marriage protections.

But he faces pushback from conservatives who do not see him as sufficiently loyal to Trump, and Democrats especially lambasted him for voting to confirm Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth after being coy for most of the process. His biggest obstacle by far will be former Democratic governor Roy Cooper, who won the state in 2016 and 2020, both times when Trump was on the ballot.

Both Tillis and Cooper are massive fundraisers and the race will be a major draw for both parties.

2. Jon Ossoff (D-Georgia)

Perhaps the biggest surprise for the Trump era has been Georgia moving from becoming a solidly red state to a state where Democrats could compete.

In 2021, Jon Ossoff knocked off an incumbent Republican senator weeks after Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential nominee in 28 years to win Georgia.

Trump won Georgia in 2024, which shows Ossoff will face major challenges. His fellow Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock won re-election in 2022, the same year that Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, won re-election. The big question for Ossoff is whether the term-limited Kemp will run against him. Kemp is a prolific fundraiser and well-liked in the suburbs of Atlanta. But if Kemp passes, the field is wide open, though Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the right-wing firebrand in the House, has said she would be interested.

3. Susan Collins (R-Maine)

In 2020, Democrats were sure they could knock off Sen. Susan Collins, the moderate Republican from Maine, after she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court and their pouring money into the state. That turned out not to be the case and she won by almost nine points despite the fact Biden won the state.

And now, Collins is more powerful than before, given she is chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Collins has mostly voted to confirm Trump’s cabinet nominees, save for Hegseth and FBI Director Kash Patel. She even voted to confirm Tulsi Gabbard to be director of National Intelligence and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be Health and Human Services Secretary.

But expect Democrats to still tie her to Trump, especially given how she voted for many of his judicial nominees and the fact that her last election came before the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson that overturned Roe v. Wade. The big question is who will step in to challenge her.

4. New Hampshire (Open)

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced earlier this month that she would not seek a fourth term in the Senate.

New Hampshire has not elected a Republican senator since 2010, when it voted for now-Gov. Kelly Ayotte. But if Chris Sununu, the state’s popular former governor, jumps into the race, Republicans have a good chance of winning.

At the same time, many Democrats such as four-term Rep. Chris Pappas would be formidable candidates. And while Sununu created distance between himself and Trump, it would be difficult for him to separate himself when he would effectively be voting for Trump’s agenda as a senator.

5. Michigan (Open)

As in New Hampshire, Michigan’s Democratic Sen. Gary Peters announced he would not seek re-election. The big question, though comes down to who actually seeks the seat.

Republicans have not won a Senate seat in Michigan since 1994, but Trump’s 2016 and 2024 victories give them reason to think they have an opportunity.

On the Republican side, former congressman Mike Rogers, who barely lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last year, has expressed interest in running again, and Tudor Dixon, who in 2022 lost to Gretchen Whitmer, is weighing whether to run for governor or the Senate seat.

The Democratic side is turning into as much of a battle royale. Gretchen Whitmer, the state’s term-limited governor, and Pete Buttigieg have both passed on running. But state senator Mallory McMorrow and Rep. Haley Stevens are both potential frontrunners on the Democratic side. Kristen McDonald Rivet, a freshman Democratic congresswoman from a Trump district, is also a potential candidate.