In the wake of his team’s National League Division Series defeat of the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday night, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was asked who he preferred to face in the NL Championship Series.
Brewers or Padres?
The beer-soaked executive smiled.
“I just want chaos,” he said.
Alas, Friedman’s wish wouldn’t be granted.
Hours after his team booked its place in the NLCS, the Brewers did the same by winning Game 4 of their NLDS in San Diego –– avoiding a potential Game 5 that would have worn down both teams’ pitching.
Instead, this year’s NLCS will be a rematch of last season’s one-sided affair, with the Dodgers and Brewers meeting again after the Dodgers’ pennant-clinching sweep last year.
This time, the storylines will be similar: The Brewers trying to vanquish the defending champions. Trying to negate the near $300 million disparity between the two teams’ payrolls. And trying to turn their regular-season success (having led the majors in wins for a second-straight year with a 103-59 record) into October glory.
The Dodgers, of course, will be favored.
They will be pegged to return to the World Series in search of an historic three-peat.
Game 1 is set for Sunday at American Family Field in Milwaukee.
In the meantime, here is a look at how the clubs match up ahead of the best-of-seven series:
At the plate
Getting on base
The Dodgers did most of their damage in the NLDS via the long ball. But they also kept the Braves’ pitching staff under constant stress; taking competitive at-bats, driving up pitch counts, and creating a string of opportunities that they finally started to cash in.
Their 1-for-16 mark with runners in scoring position wasn’t good.
But that’s also part of the reality of postseason baseball (case in point, they held the Braves to 1-for-23 in such situations).
The good news: Practically every regular in the lineup besides Shohei Ohtani (2-for-13 in the NLDS) and Will Smith (1-for-16) had a big moment in the opening round of the playoffs.
After the offense’s slump through much of the second half of the season, most of their key hitters seem to be in a good place with both their approach and their swing.
The Brewers, of course, also pride themselves on grinding out at-bats, putting opposing pitchers (and defenses) under stress, and manufacturing consistent offense.
In the regular season, Milwaukee led the majors with a .258 team batting average (one point better than the Dodgers), a .341 on-base percentage (three points better than the Dodgers), and a 10.6% walk rate (half a percentage point better than the Dodgers), trailing only the Cubs as the majors’ highest-scoring offense.
And while Jackson Chourio is their only true star hitter –– batting .291 in the regular season before producing a memorable walk-off single in Game 2 of the NLDS against star Padres closer Mason Miller –– the Brewers have nothing but tough outs behind him.
Edge: Brewers
Power
So much for all those concerns about the Dodgers’ inability to hit for power during the second half of the season.
In the NLDS, the club looked like it did early in the year, when it led the NL with 118 home runs from March to June (before ranking 11th with just 86 the rest of the way).
Their eight home runs against the Braves gives them the most of any team in this year’s playoffs thus far. That included three from Max Muncy (the franchise’s all-time postseason home run leader), two from Freddie Freeman (after he had hit just one over the final 66 games of the regular season) and one apiece from Teoscar Hernández, Kiké Hernández and Kyle Tucker.
Even with Ohtani still struggling, and most of their regulars on the wrong side of 30, they offered a reminder that they still possess plenty of pop at the plate.
The Brewers, on the other hand, are one of the least-dangerous home run-hitting teams in the majors, finishing with the second-fewest during the regular season this year. Left-handed-hitting slugger Jake Bauers topped the club with 26 long balls. Chourio added 25, Brice Turang had 21 and William Contreras’ 18 made him the only other with more than a dozen.
That proved to be a problem in last year’s NLCS, when the Brewers hit just one home run while getting shut down by the Dodgers’ star-studded pitching staff.
And while they don’t rely on big flies, whether or not they can slug more consistently against the Dodgers this year could be key to the rematch.
Edge: Dodgers
On the mound
Rotation
The Brewers have the presumptive Cy Young Award winner in Jacob Misiorowski leading their staff, with the flamethrowing right-hander coming off a breakthrough regular season in which he had a 16-5 record, 1.80 ERA and MLB-most 252 strikeouts.
After him, however, their rotation is more of a question mark.
Rookie right-hander Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA) is their next-best option. Ex-Dodger Dustin May was added at the trade deadline, but had an ERA of 5.65 in his 10 Brewers starts. Robert Gasser is their only other healthy starter who had an ERA under 4.00.
Even more disconcerting: Misiorowski hardly looked dominant in Game 1 of the NLDS, needing 88 pitches to get through four innings in a two-run, four-hit, six-strikeout start.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, boast the best rotation in baseball.
Tarik Skubal (six innings, one run, seven strikeouts) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (seven innings, one run, 10 strikeouts) both threw gems in the NLDS. And though Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow walked five batters each against the Braves, they still combined for 8 ⅓ innings and only two runs allowed.
Edge: Dodgers
Bullpen
The Dodgers are feeling good about their relief corps, which gave up only four runs in 14 ⅔ innings during their NLDS defeat of the Braves.
They might have finally identified a closer in Edwin Díaz, who closed out both Games 3 and 4 of the series. Tanner Scott bounced back from a home run he allowed in Game 1, cementing himself as the primary set-up man. And all their other leverage options –– from Alex Vesia to Evan Phillips to Edgardo Henriquez and Brock Stewart –– have entrenched themselves as trustworthy options.
It might not be quite as strong a group as the one that carried the Dodgers to their 2024 World Series championship. But, for now, it at least looks reminiscent.
Still, few teams were as dominant out of the bullpen as the Brewers were this year.
Their 3.40 reliever ERA in the regular season was best in the NL. The group was excellent again during their NLDS defeat of the Padres.
Closer Trevor Megill was 30-for-33 in save opportunities this year with a 2.63 ERA and minuscule 0.89 WHIP. Hard-throwing setup man Abner Uribe was equally effective, with a 1.97 ERA in the regular season. And beyond them, Milwaukee has answers for almost any matchup problem, from left-handers Aaron Ashby (3.12 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 89 ⅓ innings) and DL Hall (1.91 ERA, fourth-lowest among southpaw relievers in the majors), to right-handed swingman Chad Patrick (3.40 ERA).
Edge: Brewers
In the field
Defense
Another pillar of Milwaukee’s sustained success over the years has been its defense. This year was no different.
The Brewers ranked fifth as a team in defensive runs saved, eighth in outs above average and seventh in overall fielding percentage –– placing comfortably above the Dodgers in all but the latter category.
Turang is their best overall glove at second base. Chourio and Garrett Mitchell fly around in the outfield. And at almost every other position, they boast athleticism and speed.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, saw shaky defense cost them multiple times in their NLDS triumph; including in a Game 2 loss when the decisive run scored on a misplayed fly ball from Teoscar Hernández and a wild pitch.
Edge: Brewers
Base-running
No surprise, but the Brewers are dangerous on the bases, as well.
Their 162 steals were fifth-most in the majors (albeit with only a 75% success rate that was below league average). They were led by third baseman David Hamilton, who was 30-for-37 on the year.
The Dodgers, conversely, didn’t have anyone swipe even half that amount.
Edge: Brewers
Manager
The Brewers have the two-time reigning NL Manager of the Year in Pat Murphy, who could be contending for a three-peat after leading Milwaukee’s low-budget roster to the most wins in the majors again this season.
But in the playoffs, no one has been better in recent years at pushing the right buttons than Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts.
During this week’s NLDS, he moved past Tony La Russa for second-most career postseason wins all-time (72). He now only trails Joe Torre’s record mark of 84.
Edge: Dodgers
Intangibles
No franchise consistently gets more out of its roster than the Brewers. But, come October, no team is more experienced or better-equipped to handle the stress of playoff baseball than the Dodgers. This week’s NLDS was a reminder of that, as the team grinded out three close wins. That also proved to be the case a season ago, when the Dodgers prevailed in enough little moments against the Brewers to complete only the fourth NLCS sweep in the last 20 years.
Edge: Dodgers
