The probability of Donald Trump Jr. winning the 2028 presidential election has improved dramatically over the past few months, according to a leading betting company.
Star Sports is offering odds of 25/1 (3.8 percent) on the current president’s eldest son being elected to the White House in 2028, placing him behind only vice president JD Vance and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in probability among Republicans.
Newsweek contacted Trump Jr. for comment via an email to the Trump Organization, where he serves as executive vice president, outside of regular office hours.
Why It Matters
President Donald Trump, aged 78, is constitutionally prohibited from serving a third White House term, meaning the Republicans will need to find a new presidential candidate for 2028, unless a long shot bid to amend the constitution is successful.
The rising popularity of Trump Jr. shows the enduring popularity of the Trump name with the Republican base, and sparks speculation the family could form a political dynasty like the Bush’s and Kennedy’s before them.
What To Know
As of Tuesday, Star Sports had odds of 25/1 (3.8 percent) on Trump Jr. winning the 2028 presidential election, down from 66/1 (1.5 percent) when the bookmaker opened its 2028 betting market right after the 2024 presidential election in November.
According to Star Sports, vice president JD Vance is the favorite to win the 2028 contest with odds of 11/4 (26.7 percent), followed by Pennsylvania’s Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro with 12/1 (7.7 percent).
They were followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom on 16/1 (5.9 percent), former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg with 18/1 (5.3 percent) and both Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and DeSantis on 20/1 (4.8 percent).
Separately on Tuesday, bookmaker Betfair offered odds of 26/1 (3.7 percent) on Trump Jr. winning the 2028 presidential election.
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This put him on the same probability at Buttigieg and behind Vance with 14/5 (26.3 percent), Shapiro on 7/1 (12.5 percent) and Newsom with 22/1 (4.3 percent).
A poll of 453 Republicans conducted between January 22 and 27 by the McLaughlin & Associates found Trump Jr. was the second most popular candidate to be the GOP’s 2028 presidential candidate with 21 percent support, behind Vance on 27 percent.
In 2019, Trump Jr. was asked if he might run for office by Fox News host Sean Hannity, to which he responded he would “never rule anything out.”
Trump Jr. has been accused of breaking the law after video of him with the body of a dead ruddy shelduck, a protected species, emerged following a December duck hunting trip to Venice Lagoon in Italy. In a statement provided to Newsweek a spokesperson for Trump Jr. said: “Don takes following all rules, regulations, and conservation on his hunts very seriously and plans on fully cooperating with any investigation.”
What People Are Saying
Speaking to Newsweek Star Sports political betting analyst William Kedjanyi said: “Donald Trump Jr was 66/1 to become the next U.S. President when we opened the market for the 2028 Election, and has now come all the way into 25/1. A recent GOP poll placed Don Jr behind only current vice president JD Vance as the preferred candidate to run as the Republican nominee in 2028 and replace his father in the White House.”
Kedjanyi continued: “The President’s eldest son has already been active in the public eye during Trump’s second term, heading to Greenland last month to drum up support for U.S. control of the Danish territory, and appears to be increasing his prominence ahead of a potential run for office. Any endorsement from Trump for either Vance or his son would of course have a huge impact on the market.”
What Happens Next
Trump Jr. is already popular within his father’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement giving him a strong potential base if he does decide to run for the presidency in 2028.
Ultimately much will depend on whether Trump Jr. wants to put himself forward, and if he does, whether he receives his father’s backing against likely rivals such as Vance.
