President Donald Trump is seeing an unexpected surge in support in New Jersey—a state Republicans haven’t carried in a presidential election since 1988.
According to the latest Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll, conducted between May 11-13 among 1,000 New Jersey registered voters, Trump holds a 47 percent approval rating, while 47 percent also disapprove, and 6 percent are neutral. The poll, like previous Emerson polls, had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
That is a significant change from July 2020, when an Emerson poll found that the majority of New Jersey voters (56 percent) disapproved of the job Trump was doing as president, whereas 38 percent approved, and 7 percent were neutral.
However, it is a slight drop from Trump’s approval rating in a January Emerson poll, which found that he has a 48 percent favorable rating among New Jersey voters, while 46 percent said they have an unfavorable view of Trump.
Why It Matters
Trump’s rising approval in deep-blue New Jersey underscores a broader political realignment that could reshape the 2028 electoral map. While the state is unlikely to flip red, growing support in traditionally Democratic strongholds may signal trouble for the party’s national coalition—especially among swing and suburban voters. The trend could force Democrats to spend resources in states they once considered safe and highlights the enduring appeal of Trump’s message, even in regions long resistant to his brand of politics.
What To Know
The Emerson College poll suggests that Trump’s rising popularity in New Jersey may be down to his aggressive immigration agenda, which has included mass deportations and a shift toward stricter enforcement and reduced legal immigration pathways.
The poll shows that 46 percent of voters say recent deportations have made their communities safer, compared to 24 percent who feel less safe.
Voters also largely support the arrest of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka at an immigration facility, with 44 percent supporting the arrest and 38 percent opposing. Baraka was arrested last week by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers after he attempted to join three members of New Jersey’s congressional delegation, Representatives Robert Menendez, LaMonica McIver, and Bonnie Watson Coleman, in attempting to enter a federal immigration detention center.
Alex Brandon/AP
Immigration has consistently been one of Trump’s strongest issues since his 2024 presidential campaign, with the president polling highly on the issue when his second term first began.
However, in the past month, polls have begun to show Trump’s approval rating on immigration sinking. For example, the latest AP-NORC survey, conducted between May 1 and 5 among 1,175 adults, put Trump’s approval rating on immigration underwater, with 49 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving.
And a Fox News poll from last month put Trump underwater on the issue of immigration for the first time, with 47 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving.
But immigration is still one of Trump’s strongest issues, and his ratings have remained above water on the issue of the border. The Fox News poll showed that 55 percent approved of his performance on the issue, making it the only issue where his approval ratings were positive. The latest Numbers/Verasight poll also showed Trump underwater on all issues except the border.
During the 2024 presidential election, New Jersey voters exhibited a notable shift to the right on immigration issues, contributing to former Trump’s improved performance in the state. A Stockton University poll conducted in October 2024 revealed that 57 percent of New Jersey voters supported a national effort to deport immigrants living in the U.S. illegally, with support spanning across party lines: 89 percent of Republicans, 56 percent of independents, and 33 percent of Democrats.
Despite this hard-line stance, there remained significant support for legal immigration pathways. The same poll found that 59 percent of voters believed undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. legally if they meet certain requirements.
Nonetheless, Trump’s messaging on immigration, emphasizing border security and enforcement, resonated with many voters in New Jersey, including segments of the Latino community. In cities like Passaic, which is 73 percent Latino, Trump secured 52 percent of the vote in 2024, a substantial increase from 23 percent in 2016. This trend was mirrored in other majority-Latino areas such as Union City and Perth Amboy, where his support more than doubled compared to 2016. Overall, Trump boosted his share of the vote in New Jersey by five points compared to 2020—part of a broader national trend in which he gained ground in every state but two during the 2024 election.
And polls indicate that Trump’s popularity has remained strong in New Jersey. The Emerson College poll showed that Trump is more popular than the state’s Democratic governor Phil Murphy, who holds a 40 percent job approval rating, while 45 percent disapprove of the job he is doing and 15 percent are neutral.
Governor Murphy’s relationship with President Trump has been marked by both sharp criticism and pragmatic cooperation, reflecting the complexities of governing in a politically diverse state like New Jersey.
While Murphy has sharply criticized the president—calling Trump’s 2025 push to dismantle the Department of Education “unconscionable and unconstitutional,” and taking proactive measures to counter potential federal abortion restrictions—he has also publicly thanked Trump when their interests aligned, such as during the effort to block New York City’s congestion pricing plan, which affected many New Jersey commuters.
The Emerson poll also revealed a deeper political split among New Jersey voters. While Democrats overwhelmingly prefer a governor who will resist Trump, most independents (60 percent) and Republicans (90 percent), and 53 percent of voters overall, want cooperation with the administration. This alignment with Trump among swing voters may help explain his surprisingly strong footing in a state not known for favoring Republican presidents.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Democrats want the next Governor to stand up to Trump (76%), while Republicans want the next Governor to work with Trump (90%). Independents align more with Republicans in wanting the Governor to work with the president at 60%, compared to 40% who want the Governor to stand up to the president.”
