Just when you think Pennsylvania has decided to zig, it zags.
The November election proved the state’s reputation as swingy as a circus trapeze. Keystone State voters have blown with the political winds, siding with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump again and Barack Obama in the last five presidential elections.
Those votes usually make a significant difference nationally. In the last 100 years, Pennsylvania has backed the losing candidate just four times.
But when it comes to state politics, Pennsylvania is a bit more consistent — even in its swings. Perhaps it’s because, for so long, Pennsylvania governors could serve only one four-year term. Once that changed, the pendulum became fairly predictable swings of eight years in Democratic hands and then eight years in the Republican control. Josh Shapiro’s win in 2022 marked the first time since 1950 that one party was given control for more than two consecutive terms.
The 2024 election marked another swing, with statewide offices. Republicans won back the treasurer position for the first time since 2000. The auditor general had gone Republican in 2020 and stayed that way. The GOP also reclaimed the attorney general’s office, which went Democratic for the first time in 2012.
The General Assembly historically tends to cleave more conservatively. The state House has been narrowly Democratic since 2023. It isn’t unheard of, but it is rare. Short bursts of Democratic control have been separated by two 12-year stretches in Republican hands. In the Senate, any such alternation is an anomaly. There hasn’t been a Democratic majority since 1993, and it was just one year.
For the past three years, the state House majority has been up for grabs, theoretically, several times as special elections have taken place to fill vacated offices. The most recent was Tuesday, when voters went to the polls to decide who would take the seat of the late state Rep. Matt Gergely, D-McKeesport, who died in January.
As with many other state House special elections, it was not a surprise when the seat went to the Democrat, with McKeesport police Officer Dan Goughnour winning. The 35th District has a wide margin of Democratic-registered voters. Goughnour’s victory means the House Democrats keep their one-vote majority.
But nothing is guaranteed in politics. Lancaster County is one of the most Republican areas in the state. It probably seemed a safe bet for the GOP when Ryan Aument resigned his state seat to go work for U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick.
However, the special election there was officially called Wednesday, with James Malone becoming the first Democrat to represent the area in the Senate since 1889.
This won’t change the majority. The GOP will still hold the reins, but the margin shrinks to just four votes.
Will this change anything in Harrisburg? Unlikely. The budget battles will continue. The two chambers and the two parties will still obstinately oppose one another.
But like the moves toward more Republican participation in Allegheny County and fewer Democratic candidates in Westmoreland County, Malone’s win is another testament to Pennsylvania politics becoming as changeable on a more local level as it can be in presidential years.
