Through the first eight weeks of the 2024 college football season, we can safely say that 75 teams have been mathematically eliminated from the 12-team College Football Playoff. It is a combination of total losses and conference losses that have done the trick for nearly half of the teams competing at FBS, which is 134. While 26 should be safe this week no matter what, there are 33 who have to win.
Last week’s slate of games saw teams like Boston College, USC, Utah and Kentucky be officially crossed in the Power Four. While two dead teams were somewhat brought back to life this week in Minnesota and Toledo, it won’t be for very long. Although there are several teams who are still going to be in the playoff no matter what, others are going to play in playoff elimination games for Week 9.
Look. This is only the second week I have done this, so I don’t have this all figured out. I am mostly using ESPN’s Football Power Index as my guiding light as to who is on, who is out, and who needs a win in the worst way possible this week. Just because a team on the brink of elimination loses this week does not mean they will be mathematically eliminated. Heck, two teams did come back to life!
Let’s start with the ACC and work our way down through Power Four into the Group of Five and so on.
There are five teams in the ACC who are on the brink of elimination heading into this weekend.
Duke Blue Devils: 6-1 (2-1)
Duke may not be able to afford a second conference loss, especially to an ACC contender like SMU.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 5-3 (3-2)
Georgia Tech could get in at 9-3 with its tough schedule, but a fourth loss to Virginia Tech ruins them.
Louisville Cardinals: 4-3 (2-2)
Louisville’s playoff chances are almost gone, but will be toast if it loses on the road to Boston College.
Syracuse Orange: 5-1 (2-1)
Syracuse’s bad early-season loss to Stanford is hurting them ahead of a must-win vs. Pittsburgh.
Virginia Tech Hokies: 4-3 (2-1)
Virginia Tech will be playing in a College Football Playoff elimination game at home vs. Georgia Tech.
ACC teams alive no matter what (4): Clemson Tigers, Miami Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Panthers, SMU Mustangs
ACC teams who are already eliminated (8): Boston College Eagles, California Golden Bears, Florida State Seminoles, North Carolina Tar Heels, North Carolina State Wolfpack, Stanford Cardinal, Virginia Cavaliers, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
There are six teams in the Big Ten who are on the brink of elimination heading into this weekend.
Illinois Fighting Illini: 6-1 (3-1)
Illinois may not have the strength of schedule to lose a second game on the road to Oregon this year.
Iowa Hawkeyes: 4-3 (2-2)
Iowa losing at home to a team that is already out of it in Northwestern would certainly seal the deal.
Michigan Wolverines: 4-3 (2-2)
Michigan is still technically alive after losing to Illinois, but won’t be if they fall to rival Michigan State.
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 4-3 (2-2)
Minnesota been brought back from the dead (only barely) and has to beat Maryland at home now.
Nebraska Cornhuskers: 5-2 (2-2)
Nebraska is on life support after last week’s loss to Indiana, but they’ll be out with an Ohio State loss.
Wisconsin Badgers: 5-2 (3-1)
Wisconsin may be 5-2, but a loss at home to Penn State should knock them out of the playoff picture.
Big Ten teams alive no matter what (4): Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State Buckeyes, Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions
Big Ten teams who are already eliminated (8): Maryland Terrapins, Michigan State Spartans, Northwestern Wildcats, Purdue Boilermakers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Washington Huskies
There are five teams in the Big 12 who are on the brink of elimination heading into this weekend.
Cincinnati Bearcats: 5-2 (3-1)
It feels like a College Football Playoff elimination game on our hands with Cincinnati and Colorado.
Colorado Buffaloes: 5-2 (3-1)
As stated above, a loss to Cincinnati would knock the Colorado Buffaloes out of the playoff race, too.
TCU Horned Frogs: 4-3 (2-2)
TCU kept its slim playoff dreams alive last week with a win over Utah, but will be out with another loss.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: 5-2 (3-1)
Texas Tech going to TCU is a playoff elimination game, especially after the Red Raiders lost to Baylor.
West Virginia Mountaineers: 3-4 (2-2)
West Virginia is only barely hanging on, but a fifth loss on the season to Arizona puts them to pasture.
Big 12 teams alive no matter what (4): Arizona State Sun Devils, BYU Cougars, Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas State Wildcats
Big 12 teams who are already eliminated (7): Arizona Wildcats, Baylor Bears, Houston Cougars, Kansas Jayhawks, Oklahoma State Cowboys, UCF Knights, Utah Utes
There are six teams in the SEC who are on the brink of elimination heading into this weekend.
Alabama Crimson Tide: 5-2 (2-2)
It might actually happen. Alabama faces playoff elimination in his home game vs. Missouri in Week 9.
Arkansas Razorbacks: 4-3 (2-2)
If Arkansas somehow loses to Mississippi State in Starkville, the Hogs deserve to be eliminated.
Missouri Tigers: 6-1 (2-1)
As stated above, it is a College Football Playoff elimination game between Missouri and Alabama.
Oklahoma Sooners: 4-3 (1-3)
Oklahoma should already be out of it, but the Sooners will be if they lose to Ole Miss in Oxford.
Ole Miss Rebels: 5-2 (1-2)
If the Ole Miss Rebels drop another game, they will be eliminated, especially if it is to Oklahoma.
Vanderbilt Commodores: 5-2 (2-1)
Vanderbilt will need to beat Texas at home to live to fight another week on the playoff bubble.
SEC teams alive no matter what (7): Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs, LSU Tigers, South Carolina Gamecocks, Tennessee Volunteers, Texas Longhorns, Texas A&M Aggies
SEC teams who are already eliminated (3): Auburn Tigers, Kentucky Wildcats, Mississippi State Bulldogs
There are 11 teams in the Group of Five who are on the brink of elimination heading into this week.
Boise State Broncos: 5-1 (2-0)
Boise State cannot afford to lose a second game this season if it wants to stay in the playoff race.
Georgia Southern Eagles: 5-2 (3-0)
A loss at Old Dominion would give Georgia Southern its third on the year and first in Sun Belt play.
James Madison Dukes: 5-2 (1-2)
If James Madison loses at home to Southern Miss, the Dukes have no business being in the playoff.
Memphis Tigers: 6-1 (2-1)
Memphis needs to protect its home turf vs. a Charlotte team that got crushed by Navy last weekend.
Sam Houston Bearkats: 5-2 (2-1)
Sam Houston needs to avoid falling into the death trap that is Pitbull Stadium in Miami, Florida. Dale!
San Jose State Spartans: 5-2 (3-1)
With Fresno State already out of it, San Jose State will be as well if they lose at home to the Bulldogs.
Toledo Rockets: 5-2 (2-1)
Back from dead, Toledo cannot suffer a loss to its most hated rival this week in Bowling Green at all.
Tulane Green Wave: 5-2 (3-0)
A road loss to recently eliminated North Texas would end Tulane’s slim chances of making the playoff.
UL Monroe Warhawks: 5-1 (3-0)
A road loss at an already out of it South Alabama team would end UL Monroe’s slim playoff dreams.
UNLV Rebels: 6-1 (2-0)
UNLV probably can kiss its playoff dreams goodbye if the Rebels lose to Boise State this weekend.
Washington State Cougars: 6-1
A road loss at San Diego State probably eliminates all hope Washington State has at making it in.
Group of Five teams alive no matter what (6): Army Black Knights, Liberty Flames, Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, Marshall Thundering Herd, Navy Midshipmen, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Group of Five teams who are already eliminated (47): Air Force Falcons, Akron Zips, Appalachian State Mountaineers, Arkansas State Red Wolves, Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Central Michigan Chippewas, Charlotte 49ers, Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Colorado State Rams, East Carolina Pirates, Eastern Michigan Eagles, Florida Atlantic Owls, Florida International Panthers, Fresno State Bulldogs, Georgia State Panthers, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, Jacksonville State Gamecocks, Kennesaw State Owls, Kent State Golden Flashes, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Miami RedHawks, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Nevada Wolf Pack, New Mexico Lobos, New Mexico State Aggies, North Texas Mean Green, Northern Illinois Huskies, Ohio Bobcats, Old Dominion Monarchs, Oregon State Beavers, Rice Owls, San Diego State Aztecs, South Alabama Jaguars, South Florida Bulls, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Temple Owls, Texas State Bobcats, Troy Trojans, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, UAB Blazers, Utah State Aggies, UTEP Miners, UTSA Roadrunners, Western Michigan Broncos, Wyoming Cowboys
National independents still alive no matter what (1): Notre Dame Fighting Irish
National independents who are already eliminated (2): UConn Huskies, UMass Minutemen
In total, 33 teams can be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with a loss in Week 9.
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