Well, the intra-Democratic meltdown over Kamala Harris’ loss was not put to rest by my eloquent piece from last week, it turns out. The meltdown is continuing and will do so until morale improves—which could be as soon as January, when Donald Trump takes office and begins bearing the brunt of everyone in the United States being mad about everything.
As hostile as the discourse is at times, though, its themes can provide some insight into what kinds of candidates might be appealing to Democrats in future election cycles. Especially the 2028 presidential primary, which is the main thing the party should concern itself with for the next four years. (That’s a joke.)
And when you step back to consider all of the varied lessons being drawn, in their totality, a surprising conclusion presents itself. Which is that New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the polarizing Squad leftist who is only 35 years old, might already have an opening to be the front-runner for the 2028 nomination .
First, Democrats will be looking for someone who is a good “communicator.” The reason for this is straightforward: The party has largely been dragged into the depths of its current electoral situation by an anchor named Joe Biden, who, in addition to being perceived as responsible for inflation, was thought of by many voters as a weak and ineffective leader. This was not an entirely unreasonable characterization, given that his public speaking was so unsteady that he had to step down from the ticket after forgetting what he was talking about every 15 seconds at the first presidential debate. Kamala Harris did a much better job than Biden at rallies and in her debate performance, but she generally failed to make news or create a memorable identity for herself in interviews. Next time around the party will want a better salesperson and more potent personality.
More particularly, they’ll be looking for someone who can reach young voters through nontraditional media. It takes months after an election to complete the kinds of detailed surveys of verified voters that reveal how various demographic subgroups really cast their ballots, but the immediate narrative that has taken hold thanks to exit polling is that Trump was able to make crucial gains with young people, especially young men, by (among other things) making himself frequently available to Gen Z podcasters and streamers.
No one checks these boxes more obviously than Ocasio-Cortez, who is commonly described as, e.g., “the most talented political communicator of her generation” and is, literally, an occasional streaming gamer. More than 8 million people follow her on Instagram to keep tabs on content like the hourlong IG Live event she held to discuss her strategic vote on the 2021 infrastructure bill.
But what will the next Democratic candidate be talking to voters about? If current trends hold, and Trump’s tariffs-and-deportation regime has the expected effect of creating further inflation and shortages, topic No. 1 will be economic stagnation—the sense that things (particularly housing) cost too much these days and it’s impossible to get ahead. This cycle’s inflation led to crucial Democratic losses among voters who don’t have college degrees, and those voters will have to be won back somehow, because they make up a majority of the electorate.
Many Democrats have already concluded that this requires avoiding the kind of progressive social-justice rhetoric that primary candidates often used in 2020. But they are also now getting around to abandoning the conviction, crucial to Biden’s victory in that year, that it is equally dangerous to use economically populist rhetoric about fighting against billionaires and the concentration of wealth. With freaking Donald Trump now having won the presidency twice, openness is emerging to candidates who don’t feel like members of the so-called establishment—i.e. mavericks, people who have blue-collar backgrounds or those who might be considered a bit too revolutionary in the kinds of law-finance-tech circles that Kamala Harris comes from. Candidates who will, in the words of centrist New York Times columnist David Brooks, “make people like me feel uncomfortable.” Doesn’t this describe a bartender turned “democratic socialist” organizer and party insurgent?
What the 2020 primary ultimately showed is that Democratic voters are pragmatic; they responded to what they thought the general electorate wanted, and put aside their own preferences in order to do so. That looked like Joe Biden last time, but it probably won’t in 2028. Democrats may instead be looking for someone who simply has the Sauce—a sort of inverse Trump who can win and hold voters’ attention in a Fragmented Media Landscape™️, whose perceived authenticity and realness will more than compensate for a “polarizing” personality and past or present espousal of positions that don’t necessarily match up with those of the median voter. And Ocasio-Cortez has the Sauce.
The video above is a good catch-up for those who might not be fully versed in present-day AOC. She’s become more of a “team player,” putting herself fully behind the centrist presidential ticket and campaigning with swing-district Democrats with off-the-scale Blue Dog names like Pat Ryan. She also avoids using the more overtly leftist language about subjects like racism and “colonialism” that she might have used six or four years ago. She is not “tacking to the center” per se, but creating a brand that can’t be placed as obviously in the left-center dichotomy as it used to be.
At the same time, her message is still a “populist” one about collective action and the trials and tribulations of regular people.
Is that divisive and hostile to “job creators”? Would some voters believe that Ocasio-Cortez is too liberal to be president? Yes, yes, yes. It would be said so many times your ears would bleed a viscous Soviet red. But this is a burden every Democratic candidate has to carry. An inspiring or “authentic” outsider identity is a proven way to work around the problem. (See Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama.) And Ocasio-Cortez has outsider credibility that other potential candidates—Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, all of whom have their merits but are, at heart, professional-class overachievers—do not. More so than any of them, she is a zag that would respond to 2024’s zigs. (Also, while she is a second-generation immigrant whose mother worked as a housecleaner and bus driver, she is simultaneously a Boston University graduate with a degree in economics and international relations. A secret professional-class overachiever, you might say, who can also speak the language of that key interest group when needed.)
Keen Slate readers might at this point raise the fact that I suggested in 2018 that Democrats nominate Beto O’Rourke for president for similar charisma-related reasons, only for him to flop in the ensuing primary. Now, on the merits, Ocasio-Cortez is more well known nationally than O’Rourke was, has a more substantive legislative record than he did, would likely find it easier than he did to raise money, and has a more established identity. It would be easier for her to find a lane—to explain why she was running for president and was qualified to do so. There are reasons to think she would fare better than O’Rourke did. But also, O’Rourke did better in 2018 in Texas than any other Democrat has done in decades! Maybe they should have nominated him in 2020.
Lastly, as far as winning over younger voters, including men, it may be germane to note—and if it weren’t relevant to electoral concerns I wouldn’t bring it up, because of my feminism and my respect—that many people consider Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attractive. This, arguably, can contribute to popularity and success in politics. (And not just for women, as ballot-busting hunks like Obama and potential Senate Majority Leader “Sexy” John Thune go to show.)
But don’t just take my word for all of this: Listen to the voters themselves. There were a notable number of ticket splitters this year, i.e. individuals who voted for both Trump and downballot Democrats. On Instagram this week, Ocasio-Cortez asked followers who fit the description to justify their choice. The results were telling:
Signifying change … existing outside the establishment … being real. These men and women, who support the political ambitions of both Donald Trump and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the year 2024, might not know that much about the ins and outs of tariff policy or the DREAM Act. But they know the Sauce when they see it.
