(WHTM) — Although the 2024 Presidential Election is over, analysts are continuing to evaluate President-elect Donald Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Democrats are 0-2 against Trump when they ran a woman and 1-0 against Trump when they ran a guy,” said Chris Nicholas of the Eagle Consulting Group at the Pennsylvania Press Club luncheon on Monday.
“I think there’s a Trump celebrity factor,” said Brittany Crampsie of Brit Crampsie Communications. “We have not figured out how to run against him and nothing we seem to do or anything that he seems to do hurts him at all.”
There is lots of food for thought and data to crunch. Susquehanna Polling and Research’s Jim Lee says polls were right to have Trump and Harris close and within the margin of error, but Trump winning all seven battleground states was a surprise.
“What he did was he overperformed all the polling averages yet again,” said Lee. The other big takeaway I thought was that Philadelphia continues to underperform.”
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Although Trump did not win Philadelphia, he did not lose as badly as many thought he would, with 20 percent of the vote.
“If we’re going to start getting 20%, that really changes the math and changes the dynamics,” said Nicholas.
The President-Elect also eroded the Vice President’s margins with minorities, women, and suburban voters.
“So when you look at how well Trump overperformed in the rest of the state, where was she going to go to make up that difference?” Lee asked. “There was just nowhere, nowhere to hide.”
Harris won just nine Pennsylvania counties, four fewer than Joe Biden: Northampton, Bucks, Monroe, Bellwether, and Erie flipped. Trump outperformed his 2020 numbers in 66 of 67 counties, and only Cumberland was less supportive.
“We don’t need to throw the Democratic Party out with the bathwater,” Brittany said. “I don’t think that we should change who we are, what we believe in, or necessarily how we target and talk to voters until we really see the effects of a post-Trump electorate.”
“The voters are restless,” said Nicholas. “The economy is really the best-determining factor of how they’re going to vote on Election Day. More than 70% of US voters thought the country was headed in the wrong direction. So where is that number two years from now in the midterms and four years from now.”
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